Inside the Stock Market
The Valuation of Jones Medical
(JMED, NASDAQ)
This evaluation is based on data obtained after
Robertson, Stephens & Co. put out a "buy" recommendation
for Jones Medical on November 1, 1996. The stock price
at that time was $43 1/2.
Here are some facts about Jones Medical:
- The trailing PE is 81 and even if the stock stays
where it's at now the forward PE based on earnings
estimates is still over 40.
- On October 31 Jones Medical stated that its goal is to
screen strategic acquisition opportunities to achieve
250 million dollars in annual sales by the year 2000.
Again, even if the stock stays the same the company will
have a market value five times its projected 2000 sales.
That's crazy. Right now the market value of the
company is fifteen times the last four quarters of
sales.
- The company only has equity of 133 million dollars and
almost half of that is goodwill.
- The recent price surge of the company's stock is
unsustainable: 264% in 1995 and 306% in 1996.
- The company is not improving performance based on new
or innovative products, but by acquisition by issuing
more stock which will dilute future earnings.
- On October 31 the company reported a net income
increase of 89% for the third quarter 96 over the same
quarter in 1995. They excluded an acquisition charge of
$5.7 million. If they would have included the charge the
third quarter 96 earnings would have been a 54% decrease
over the same quarter 1995. Why do you think they
excluded the $5.7 million charge? You can check the SEC
10-Q yourself by going to the Edgar database and search
under Jones Medical. You will see that 1995 third
quarter was 13 cents a share and 1996 third quarter is 6
cents a share.
- Robertson, Stephens, & Co. who is recommending the
stock also did the last stock offering (4/96) for Jones
Medical. Do you think they have a vested interest in
recommending the stock?
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