October 7, 1998

Dear National Public Radio:

How about doing a story about Clinton, the stock market, and Clinton's ratings? Most people give credit to Clinton for the strong economy and low unemployment.

The Fed Chairman probably has more to do with the economy, employment, and stock market than the President because he controls monetary policy. And even the Fed doesn't do that much. In the last 3 years the Fed has only made two very small interest rate moves. Other than that, the Fed could have been watching TV the other 2 years, 11 months, and 28 days.

If you want to give Clinton credit for the strong economy, fair enough. However, if that's the case, than don't you want to blame him for the current bear market in stocks: the average NASDAQ stock is down 50% from all time highs, the average NYSE stock is down 30% from all time highs, and even the S&P 500 and DJIA are down 19% from all time highs? (If the stock market is correct and earnings are going to suffer in the next few quarters there will be layoffs and a slowing economy and maybe even a recession, if you are the type that gives Clinton credit for the strong economy, wouldn't you blame him for a weak one?)

Is it, as far as not blaming Clinton, because the general news media and financial news media has not taken the responsibility in pointing out to the public that the stock market is based on future expectations and could be trying to tell Americans something? Even if you have no money in the stock market or the money that you do have you are investing for the long-term and don't really care about the short-term swings, you could still be severely impacted even though it may not happen for several quarters?

As I said the stock market is based on future expectations, expectations of earnings. If the market is correct and earnings are going to be negative in the next few quarters than layoffs will follow. How severe the layoffs will be no one knows.

Are most Americans just waiting to be laid off before they blame anybody? Then when they get laid off they will blame Clinton?

I would ask why wait? Many financial gurus and politicians say that the problems in Japan are mainly due to bad leadership. If the stock market is correct, and there is going to be bad earnings and therefore layoffs, don't we want strong leadership in the White House?

I personally don't think the President or Fed Chairman have much to do with the strong economy. I think each and every American contribute equally. However, if things do start to turn bad and layoffs start occurring, I would want very strong leadership in the White House.

ADDENDUM (December 21, 1998)

If you really want to get an unbiased viewpoint on how important the president is to the economy, just ask the stock market. The week before the impeachment the NASDAQ rose 6.1% and today, the first day after the offical impeachment in the house, the NASDAQ is up another 2.5%. As far as the DOW goes, it was up 1% the week before the impeachment and today, it was up another 1%.

I watched CNBC the week before the impeachment. The newscasters on CNBC were all anxious, they wanted the market to fall, but it wouldn't. Some started rumors that Rubin and/or Greenspan may do something drastic if the president was impreached and CNBC was right there to fuel the rumors, but still the market did not fall. And when the bombings started, CNBC really thought they had their wish. The market would surely tank now... they thought. But it didn't. You could actually see the disappointment in some of the newscasters behaviors and words.

Most everyone on CNBC thought that the market would fall apart after the bombings. I was very surprised that they did not emphasize the fact that when we went to war with Iraq on January 17, 1991, the DOW was up 115 points and that was when the DOW was at 2500. It was a 4.6% gain in the DOW in one day. (NASDAQ was up 10.6 points or 2.9%) You can see for yourself at Yahoo table data for the DOW from Jan 10, 1991 to Jan 24, 1991 and Yahoo table data for the NASDAQ from Jan 10, 1991 to Jan 24, 1991.

Unfortunetly, even the financial news media is into sensationalizing their newscasts. They don't care if it's opinion, conjecture, rumors on the street, or if it's bad for America. If it will bring in more viewers or readers, they are going to do it.

Always remember that we all play a part in the success of the economy and this country. Remember too, that the financial news media and the news media in general, don't really care about you or what's important to this country, they care about ratings and that's all. Think about that when you buy the products that support them.

The fact is, America is strong in spite of the politicians and the news media.