MARTIN SCHNEIDER

Department of Economics
Stanford University

Landau Economics Building
579 Serra Mall

Stanford CA 94305-6072

phone (650) 721-6320 
schneidr at stanford dot edu


CV


Research
Ambiguity in macro & finance
Credit & money
Interest rate & credit risk
Housing
Learning in markets



Ambiguity in macro & finance

 
Recursive multiple priors, with Larry Epstein       
Journal of Economic Theory, 113(1), 32-50 (2003)
Axiomatizes dynamically consistent model of intertemporal decision making under ambiguity. Shows how to update sets of priors.

Learning under ambiguity, with Larry Epstein 
Review of Economic Studies, 74((4), 1275-1303 (2007)
Tractable model of learning under ambiguity from iid signals. Shows that ambiguity may but need not vanish in long run. Quantitative application to portfolio choice with learning about mean returns illustrates slow convergence & 1st order effects of parameter uncertainty. 

Ambiguity, information quality and asset pricing, with Larry Epstein 
Journal of Finance, 63(1), 197-228 (2008)
Learning from signals with ambiguous precision induces asymmetric response to news: good news discounted, bad news taken seriously. Asset pricing model delivers negative skewness and premia for low (idiosyncractic) information quality. Quantitative application to pricing after 9/11.   

Ambiguity and asset markets, with Larry Epstein 
Annual Reviews of Financial Economics 2, 315-34 (2010)     
Surveys models of ambiguity aversion and their applications in finance

Ambiguous Business Cycles, with Cosmin Ilut,
R&R, American Economic Review
Proposes a class of business cycle models with uncertainty shocks that can be analyzed by standard linear methods. In estimated medium scale New Keynesian model, ambiguity shocks play important role by generating comovement of major aggregates

Uncertainty shocks, asset supply and pricing over the business cycle
with Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut,
Business cycle model with corporate sector payout and capital structure choice. Firms react to time variation in (measured) risk premia. Risk premia are driven by ambiguity. Stochastic volatility affects perceived ambiguity and thereby has 1st order effects.

Credit & money
 

Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees, and Financial Crises, with Aaron Tornell

Review of Economic Studies
2004, 71(3), 883-913

Aggregate implications of wealth redistribution: the case of inflation, with Matthias Doepke
Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(2-3), 493-502 (2006)

Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth, with Matthias Doepke
Journal of Political Economy114(6), 1069-97 (2006)2006

Inflation as a redistribution shocks: effects on aggregates and welfare, with Matthias Doepke

On the optimality of dominant unit of account, with Matthias Doepke 



Interest rate & credit risk

Equilibrium Yield Curves with  Monika Piazzesi zip file with MATLAB programs
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006 p. 389-442

Interest Rate Risk in Credit Markets with  Monika Piazzesi
American Economic Review P&P, 100(2) 579-584 (2010)


Banks' risk exposures with Juliane Begenau and Monika Piazzesi

Trend and Cycle in Bond Premia with Monika Piazzesi and Juliana Salomao




Housing


Housing, consumption and asset pricing, with Monika Piazzesi
Journal of Financial Economics
83, 531-569 (2007)
Representative agent model with two trees (housing, equity) and nonseparable utility over fruit (housing services, other consumption). Composition risk of consumption basket is priced and changes over time. Share of housing in total consumption predicts excess returns on equity.

Inflation illusion, credit and asset prices, with Monika Piazzesi
in Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy, J.Y. Campbell (ed.), Chicago IL, Chicago University Press, pp. 147-181 (2007)

Whenever borrowers and lenders disagree about real interest rates, there are gains from trade, so credit and collateral values increase. Money illusion leads to more disagreement when nominal rates are unusually high or low, predicting housing booms in 1970s as well as 2000s.
Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model with Monika Piazzesi
American Economic Review P&P 99(2) 493-502 (2009)
Cluster analysis of Michigan survey expectations shows increase of small (20% max) cluster with extrapolative 
expectations in  2006-7. In search model of housing market calibrated to low turnover and large transaction costs, small inflow of exuberant traders is enough to move prices

Inflation and the Price of Real Assets, with Monika Piazzesi
Overlapping generations model with unsinsurable nominal risk and household choice of equity, housing & bonds. Changes in demographics and inflation expectations can explain large share of movements in household net worth and negative comovement of equity & house price in postwar US           

The Housing Market(s) of San Diego, with Tim Landvoigt and Monika Piazzesi,
R&R American Economic Review

Quantitative study of assignment model for San Diego County housing market boom 2000-5. Capital gains much higher for low quality housing. Cheap credit is key; composition of housing supply also matters.

Segmented housing search, with Monika Piazzesi and Johannes Stroebel
       


 
Learning in markets


Strategic Experimentation and Disruptive Technological Change, with Fabiano Schivardi
Review of Economic Dynamics
2008, 11(2) 386-412.   


International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach, with Rui Albuquerque and Greg Bauer
Review of Economic Studies
2007, 74/1: 1-30.

Global Private Information in International Equity Markets, with Rui Albuquerque and Greg Bauer
Journal of Financial Economics 2009, 94 (1), 18-46.         

Asset Valuation and Trading with Uncertain Exposure, with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Per Krusell, 03/10