Robert E. Hall -
Selected Published and Forthcoming Papers
2010s
Diagnosing Consumer
Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence (with Susan Woodward), American
Economic Review, 2012, 102(7), December, pp. 3249-3276. – PROGRAMS -
The Cyclical Response of
Advertising Refutes Counter-Cyclical Profit Margins in Favor of Product-Market
Frictions, August 2012.
Evidence on the Incidence
of Wage Posting, Wage Bargaining, and on-the-Job Search (with Alan B. Krueger), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
2012, 4(4), pp. 56-67. - DATA: Programs and Results / DATA: Survey -
The High Sensitivity of
Economic Activity to Financial Frictions, The Economic Journal,
2011, 121, May, pp. 351-378. - DATA AND PROGRAMS (ZIP FILE) -
The Long Slump (2011 AEA Presidential Address), American
Economic Review, 2011, 101(2), April, pp. 431-469. – MATERIALS FOR MY
AEA PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS –
Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces
after a Financial Crisis?, Journal
of Economic Perspectives, 24(4), Fall 2010, pp.
3-20.
Reference Guide on Estimation of
Economic Damages (with Victoria A. Lazear and
Mark S. Allen), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Washington:
Federal Judicial Center, 1994. Third Edition 2011.
Fiscal Stimulus, Daedalus, Fall 2010, pp. 83-94.
The Burden of the
Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship (with Susan Woodward), American Economic Review, 2010, 100(3), June, pp. 1163-1194. – PROGRAMS -
Forward-Looking Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press,
2010. (Full text download by arrangement with
publisher.)
2000s
By How Much Does GDP Rise
if the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, 2009, 2, pp. 183-231. - DATA AND SLIDES (ZIP FILE) -
Reconciling
Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of
Labor, Journal of Political Economy, April
2009, 117(2), pp. 281-323. (Replaces “Sources and Mechanisms of Cyclical Fluctuations in the
Labor Market”). – DATA -
Equity
Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt, December 2008, published as Chapter 7 of Forward-Looking Decision Making, titled
“Financial Stability with Government-Guaranteed Debt.”
Cyclical Movements along
the Labor Supply Function, in Katharine Bradbury, Christopher L. Foote, Robert K. Triest, (eds.) Labor Supply in the New Century, Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston, 2008, pp. 241-278.
Potential
Competition, Limit Pricing, and Price Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct, in Issues in Competition Law and Policy, Vol. 1,
ABA Publishing Chicago, 2008, pp. 433-448.
The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain (with
Paul R. Milgrom), American Economic
Review, September 2008, 98(4), pp. 1653-1674 (PDF 278 kb). - DATA -
How Much Do We Understand about the
Modern Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 2, pp. 13-28. – DATA -
Review of Michael D. Whinston’s Lectures
on Antitrust Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(4), December 2007, pp. 1066-1070.
The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending (with
Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007,
122(1), pp. 39-72. - DATA -
The Macroeconomy
and Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers, in R.
Blank, S. Danziger, and R. Schoeni
(eds.), Working and Poor: How Economic
and Policy Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers, Russell Sage Foundation,
2006, pp. 89-112. - DATA -
Job Loss, Job Finding, and
Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, pp. 101-137. - DATA - (16,000
kb).
Separating the Business Cycle from
Other Economic Fluctuations, in The Greenspan Era:
Lessons for the Future, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 133-179,
August 2005. - DATA -.
Employment Efficiency and Sticky
Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market, Review
of Economics and Statistics, August 2005, 87(3), pp.
397-407. - DATA -
Employment Fluctuations with
Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, American
Economic Review, March
2005, 95(1), pp. 50-65. - DATA -. Correction by Guido Lorenzoni.
Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August
2004, 119(3), pp. 899-927. - DATA -
Modern Theory of Unemployment
Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications, AER Papers and Proceedings, May 2003, 93(2), pp. 145-150.
Controlling the Price Level, Contributions to Macroeconomics,
2002, 2(1), article 5.
The Stock Market and Capital
Accumulation, American
Economic Review, December 2001, 91(5), pp. 1185-1202. - DATA APPENDIX -
Struggling to Understand the Stock Market (the
Richard T. Ely Lecture), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
May 2001, 91(2), pp. 1-11.
e-Capital: The Link between the Labor
Market and the Stock Market in the 1990s, Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity 2000, 2, pp. 73-118.
Toward a Quantification of the
Effects of Microsoft’s Conduct
(with Chris E. Hall), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May,
2000, 90(2), pp. 188-191.
Reorganization, Carnegie-Rochester Conference
Series on Public Policy, June
2000, pp. 1-22.
1990s
Why Do Some Countries Produce So
Much More Output per Worker than Others? (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly
Journal of Economics, February 1999, 114(1), pp. 83-116, February 1999. - DATA SETS -
Labor-Market Frictions and
Employment Fluctuations,
in John Taylor and Michael Woodford (eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics,
1999, North-Holland, pp. 1137-1170.
Irving Fisher’s Self-Stabilizing
Money, American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 436-438.
Levels of Economic Activity across
Countries,
(with Charles I. Jones), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
May 1997, 87(2), pp. 173-177.
Potential Disruption from the Move
to a Consumption Tax, American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp.
147-150.
Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time, Journal of Labor Economics,
January 1997, 15 (1), pp. S223-S250.
The Effects of Tax Reform on
Prices and Asset Values,
in Tax Policy and the Economy, National Bureau of Economic Research,
James Poterba (ed.), vol. 10, MIT Press, 1996, pp. 71-88.
Productivity and the Density of
Economic Activity
(with Antonio Ciccone), American Economic Review,
March 1996, 86(1), pp. 54-70.
Lost Jobs, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
1995, 1, pp. 221-256.
The Value and Performance of U.S.
Corporations
(with Bronwyn H. Hall), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1993, 1,
pp. 1-34.
Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and
Employment Volatility, NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 7(1), 1991, pp. 17-46.
Substitution over Time in
Consumption and Work,
in L. McKenzie and S. Zamagni (eds.), Value and
Capital Fifty Years Later, MacMillan, 1991, pp. 239-267.
Invariance Properties of Solow’s
Productivity Residual,
in Peter Diamond (ed.), Growth/ Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate
Bob Solow’s Birthday, 1990, MIT Press, pp. 71-112.
1980s
The Relation between Price and
Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry, Journal of Political
Economy, October 1988, 96(5), pp. 921-947.
Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of Political
Economy, April 1988, 96(2), pp. 339-357.
The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs
and Quits to Demand (with Edward Lazear), Journal of Labor Economics,
1984, 2(2), pp. 233-257.
Optimal Fiduciary Monetary
Systems, Journal
of Monetary Economics, July 1983, 12(1), pp. 33-50.
The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in
the U.S. Economy, American
Economic Review, September 1982, 72(4), pp. 716-724.
The Sensitivity of Consumption to
Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households (with Frederic Mishkin), Econometrica,
March 1982, 50(2), pp. 461-481.
Labor Supply and Aggregate
Fluctuations,
in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1980,
12, pp. 7-33.
1970s
Efficient Wage Bargains under
Uncertain Supply and Demand
(with David Lilien), American Economic Review,
December 1979, 69(5), pp. 868-879.
A Theory of the Natural Unemployment
Rate and the Duration of Employment, Journal of Monetary
Economics, April 1979, 5(2), pp. 1-17.
Stochastic Implications of the
Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, December 1978, 86(6), pp. 971-987.
An Aspect of the Economic Role of Unemployment, from Microeconomic
Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1977.
Estimation and Inference in
Nonlinear Structural Models (with E.
Berndt, B. Hall, and J. Hausman), Annals of
Economic and Social Measurement, 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665.
The Specification of Technology
with Several Kinds of Output, Journal of Political Economy, July-August
1973, 81(4), pp. 878-892.
Wages, Income, and Hours of Work
in the U.S. Labor Force,
in H. Watts and G. Cain, Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric
Studies, Rand McNally, 1973, pp. 102-162.
Turnover in the Labor Force, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
1972, 3, pp. 709-756.
The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal
Policy in an Economy with Foresight, Review of Economic Studies, April 1971,
38(114), pp. 229-244.
The Measurement of Quality Change
from Vintage Price Data,
in Zvi Griliches (ed.), Price
Indexes and Quality Change, Harvard University Press, 1971, pp. 240-271.
Why Is the Unemployment Rate So
High at Full Employment? Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 1970, 3, pp. 369-410.
1960s
Consumption Taxes versus Income
Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth, in Proceedings of the 61st
Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, 1968, pp. 125-145.
Technical Change and Capital from
the Point of View of the Dual, Review
of Economic Studies, January 1968, 35(101), pp. 35-46.
Tax Policy and Investment Behavior (with Dale W. Jorgenson), American
Economic Review, June 1967, 57(3), pp. 391-414. Reply and Further Results, American
Economic Review, June 1969, 59(3), pp.
388-401.
Books:
Economics: Principles and
Applications (with Marc Lieberman) South-Western, 1997; sixth edition
2012.
Forward-Looking Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press,
2010. (Full text download by arrangement with
publisher.)
Digital Dealing: How eMarkets are Transforming the
Economy. 2002, Norton.
Booms and Recessions in a Noisy
Economy, Arthur Okun Memorial Lectures,
Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 1991.
The Rational Consumer: Theory and Evidence, Chapter 1, A
Theory of Inheritance, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1990.
Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (with
David Papell), W.W. Norton, 2005 (previous editions
with John Taylor). Second
edition, 1988. Third edition, 1991. Fourth edition, 1993.
Fifth edition, 1997.
The Flat Tax (complete text can be downloaded) (with Alvin Rabushka), Hoover Press, 1985. Second
edition, 1995.
Low Tax,
Simple Tax, Flat Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), McGraw-Hill,
1983.
Inflation: Causes and Effects,
University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982
(editor).
***
P. S: See
also “The Postcard Tax Return,” especially if you are working on your taxes.