Robert
E. Hall - All Publications
Books:
Digital Dealing: How eMarkets are Transforming the
Economy. 2002, Norton.
Economics: Principles and Applications (with Marc Lieberman)
South-Western, 1997, second edition 2000
Booms and Recessions in a Noisy
Economy, Arthur Okun Memorial Lectures, Yale University
Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 1991.
The Rational
Consumer: Theory and Evidence, Chapter 1, A
Theory of Inheritance, MIT Press,
Macroeconomics (with John Taylor), W.W. Norton,
1986. Second edition, 1988. Third
edition, 1991. Fourth edition, 1993. Fifth edition, 1997.
The Flat Tax (complete text can be
downloaded) (with Alvin Rabushka), Hoover Press,
1985. Second edition, 1995.
Low Tax, Simple Tax, Flat Tax (with Alvin Rabushka),
McGraw-Hill, 1983.
Inflation: Causes and
Effects,
Articles:
2009
By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More
Output? November 2009 (PDF 393kb). – DATA (to come) -
The Burden of the Nondiversifiable
Risk of Entrepreneurship (with Susan Woodward), April 2009, forthcoming, American Economic Review. NBER Working Paper 14219. – DATA -
Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the
Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor, Journal of Political Economy, April
2009, 117(2), pp. 281-323. (Replaces “Sources and Mechanisms of Cyclical Fluctuations
in the Labor Market”). – DATA -
2008
Cyclical Movements along the Labor Supply Function, in Katharine Bradbury, Christopher L. Foote, Robert
K. Triest, (eds.)
Labor Supply in the New Century, Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston, 2008, pp. 241-278.
Potential Competition, Limit Pricing,
and Price Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct, in Issues in Competition Law and
Policy, Vol. 1, ABA Publishing Chicago, 2008, pp. 433-448.
The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain (with Paul R. Milgrom), American
Economic Review, September 2008, 98(4), pp. 1653-1674 (PDF 278 kb). – DATA-
Equity Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt, December 2008 (PDF 494kb )
Wage Formation between Newly Hired Workers and Employers: Survey
Evidence (with Alan B. Krueger), September 2008 (PDF 193 kb). NBER Working Paper 14329.
General Equilibrium with Customer Relationships: A
Dynamic Analysis of Rent-Seeking, February 2008
(PDF 615 kb)
General Equilibrium with Customer Relationships: A
Dynamic Analysis of Rent-Seeking (version with derivations), February 2008
(PDF 630 kb)
2007
How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 2, pp.
13-28. - DATA -
Review of Michael D. Whinston’s Lectures on Antitrust Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(4), December 2007, pp. 1066-1070.
The Incentives to Start New Companies: Evidence from
Venture Capital (with Susan
Woodward) April 2007 (PDF 400 kb). NBER Working Paper 13056.
The Value of Life and the Rise in
Health Spending (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of
Economics, February 2007, 122(1), pp. 39-72. - DATA -
2006
Complete
Markets as an Approximation to the Bewley Equilibrium
with Unemployment Risk, August 22, 2006
(PDF 166 kb).
The Labor Market and Macro
Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium
Analysis, April 9, 2006 (PDF
280 kb).
Editorial on Ben Bernanke
appointment, Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2006.
The Macroeconomy
and Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers, in R. Blank, S. Danziger, and R. Schoeni (eds.), Working
and Poor: How Economic and Policy Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers,
Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, pp. 89-112.
- DATA -.
2005
The
Amplification of Unemployment Fluctuations through Self-Selection, September 28, 2005 (PDF 142 kb). - DATA
-
Job Loss, Job Finding, and
Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, pp.
101-137. - DATA - (16,000 kb).
Separating the Business Cycle
from Other Economic Fluctuations, in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the
Future, Federal Reserve Bank of
Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from
Flows in the Labor Market, Review of Economics and
Statistics, August 2005, 87(3), pp. 397-407. - DATA -
Employment Fluctuations with
Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, American Economic Review, March 2005, 95(1),
pp. 50-65. - DATA - Correction by
Guido Lorenzoni.
2004
Guidelines for Tax Reform, Testimony
before House Budget Committee 10/16/04.
The Labor Market is the
Key to Understanding the Business Cycle, unpublished, September
2004.
Measuring
Factor Adjustment Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2004,
119(3), pp. 899-927. - DATA -
2003
Benchmarking the Returns to Venture (with Susan E. Woodward), December 2003, NBER WP 10202.
Corporate Earnings Track
the Competitive Benchmark, November 14, 2003
(PDF, 272 kb), NBER WP
10150.
Data: Stock Market and Capital Accumulation. Earnings by Industry. Earnings - Total Corp.
Understanding the Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing, Testimony
before Senate Finance Committee 2003
Modern Theory of Unemployment
Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications, AER Papers and
Proceedings, May 2003, 93(2), pp. 145-150.
Potential
Competition and the Prices of Network Goods: Desktop Software, April 29, 2003 (PDF, 235 kb).
2002
Response of Prices to Shifts
in Demand, March 2002.
Controlling the Price Level, Contributions
to Macroeconomics, 2002, 2(1), article 5.
2001
Comment on “Productivity
Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?” by Basu, Fernald, Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on
Public Policy, Vol. 55, 2001.
The Stock Market and Capital
Accumulation, American Economic Review, December 2001,
91(5), pp. 1185-1202.
Struggling
to Understand the Stock Market (the Richard T. Ely Lecture), American Economic Review Papers and
Proceedings, May 2001, 91(2), pp. 1-11.
2000
Reference Guide on Estimation of
Economic Losses in Damages Awards (with Victoria A. Lazear), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence,
The Value of Education: Evidence from around the Globe, November 2000.
Reorganization, Carnegie-Rochester
Conference Series on Public Policy, June 2000, pp. 1-22.
Toward a Quantification of the
Effects of Microsoft’s Conduct (with Chris E. Hall), American Economic Review
Papers and Proceedings, May, 2000, 90(2), pp. 188-191.
Monetary Policy with Changing
Financial and Labor-Market Fundamentals, May 2000.
Optimal Contracts to Defend Upstream Monopoly, January 2000 (PDF, 238 kb).
e-Capital: The Link between the Labor
Market and the Stock Market in the 1990s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000, 2, pp. 73-118.
1999
The
Concentration of Job Destruction, NBER Working Paper 7025,
1999.
Why Do Some Countries Produce So
Much More Output per Worker than Others? (with
Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1999,
114(1), pp. 83-116, February 1999. - DATA SETS -
Aggregate Job Destruction
and Inventory Liquidation, NBER Working Paper 6912, January 1999.
Labor-Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations, in John Taylor
and Michael Woodford (eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999,
North-Holland, pp. 1137-1170.
1998
Comment on “Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment” by
Caballero and Hammour,
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 48, 1998, pp.
95-99.
Job Destruction in General
Equilibrium, May 1998.
1997
The Inkjet Aftermarket: An Economic Analysis, unpublished, August 1997.
Irving Fisher’s Self-Stabilizing
Money,
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp.
436-438.
Levels of Economic Activity across Countries, (with Charles I.
Jones), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2),
pp. 173-177.
Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp.
147-150.
Overview of
the U.S. Economy (with Susan E. Woodward), prepared for Korea Development
Institute, 1997.
Macroeconomic
Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time, Journal of Labor Economics,
January 1997, 15 (1), pp. S223-S250.
The Effects of Tax Reform on
Housing, prepared for AEA/REUA Session on Tax Reform and Real
Estate, Jan. 6, 1997.
1996
Productivity and the Density of
Economic Activity (with Antonio Ciccone), American
Economic Review, March 1996, 86(1), pp. 54-70.
The Effects of Tax Reform on
Prices and Asset Values, in Tax Policy and the Economy, National Bureau
of Economic Research, James Poterba (ed.), vol. 10, MIT Press, 1996, pp. 71-88.
The Flat Tax: A Simple
Progressive Consumption Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), in Michael J. Boskin
(ed.), Frontiers of Tax Reform, Stanford, CA:
Putting the Flat Tax into
Action (with Alvin Rabushka), in Fairness
& Efficiency in the Flat Tax, AEI press, 1996, pp. 3-41.
Robert Lucas, Recipient
of the 1995 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, Scandinavian Journal
of Economics, Vol. 98 (1), 1996, pp. 33-48.
1995
Lost Jobs, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1, pp. 221-256.
The Effects of the
Brookings Panel on Economic Activity on Economic Activity, joke paper prepared for
BPEA, 1995.
The Flat
Tax in 1995 (with Alvin Rabushka), prepared
for AEI Flat Tax Conference, 1995.
The Flat Tax, Testimony before the
House Committee on Ways and Means, 1995.
International
Consequences of the Leading Consumption Tax Proposals, prepared for CEPR
Conference on Fundamental Tax Reform, Dec. 1, 1995.
1994
Reference Guide on Estimation of
Economic Losses in Damages Awards (with Victoria A. Lazear), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence,
Nominal
Income Targeting (with
N. Gregory Mankiw), in N. Gregory Mankiw
(ed.), Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press, 1994, pp. 71-93.
Quantifying Specification
Error in Models with Expectations, (with Steven N. Durlauf), unpublished,
1994
1993
The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations (with Bronwyn H. Hall), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1993, 1, pp. 1-34.
Macro Theory and the
Recession of 1990-91, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
Vol. 83(2), May 1993.
Credible Long-Term Wage
Offers, unpublished, 1993.
1991
Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 7(1), 1991, pp. 17-46.
Recession Dating, prepared for Federal
Reserve Board, unpublished, December 1991.
Substitution over Time in
Consumption and Work, in L. McKenzie and S. Zamagni
(eds.), Value and Capital Fifty Years Later, MacMillan, 1991, pp.
239-267.
Recessions as
Reorganizations, unpublished, February 1991.
1990
Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual, in Peter Diamond (ed.), Growth/ Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, 1990, MIT Press, pp. 71-112.
Contracts: Determinants,
Properties, and Implications, remarks for the concluding panel, Nobel Symposium,
August 1990.
High and Low Unemployment
Equilibria, Self-Selection, and Screening in the
Labor Market, unpublished, February 1990.
1989
Consumption, in Robert J. Barro (ed.,), Modern Business Cycle Theory,
1988
The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry, Journal of Political Economy, October 1988, 96(5), pp. 921-947.
Fluctuations in
Equilibrium Unemployment, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings,
Vol. 78, No. 2, May 1988.
Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of
Political Economy, April 1988, 96(2), pp. 339-357.
An Efficient,
Equitable Tax for the 1990s (with Alvin Rabushka), unpublished, 1988.
Increasing Returns: Theory and
Measurement with Industry Data, unpublished, 1988.
1987
Productivity and the Business Cycle, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 27, 1987, pp. 421-444.
The Volatility of
Employment with Fixed Costs of Going to Work, unpublished, June 1987.
1986
Cyclical Fluctuations in
the Labor Market (with David Lilien), in O. Ashenfelder and R. Layard (eds.), Handbook of Labor
Economics,
Market Structure and
Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2,
1986, pp. 285-322.
Monetary Policy under
Financial Innovation and Deregulation, in Y. Suzuki and H. Yomo (eds.), Financial Innovation and Monetary Policy:
Asia and the West,
Near-Indeterminacy of
Output under Constant Marginal Cost, unpublished, July 1986.
Optimal Monetary
Institutions and Policy, in Colin Campbell,
William Dougan (eds.), Alternative Monetary
Regimes, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986, pp. 224-239.
The Role of Consumption
in Economic Fluctuations, in Robert J. Gordon (ed.,) The
American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change,
Unit Elasticity
Hypothesis and the Indeterminacy of Output, unpublished, March 1986.
1985
Real Interest and Consumption, NBER Working Paper 1694, August 1985.
Worker
Reputation and the Wage Profile (with Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey), unpublished, May 1985.
1984
The Federal Deficit in the Longer Run, unpublished, 1984.
A Free Market Policy To
Stabilize the Purchasing Power of the Dollar, in Barry N. Siegel
(ed.), Money in Crisis: The Federal Reserve, the Economy, and Monetary
Reform, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1984, pp. 303-321.
Persistent Employment
Fluctuations and Cautious Wage Adjustment, unpublished, June 1984.
The Inefficiency of
Marginal-Cost Pricing and the Apparent Rigidity of Prices, NBER Working Paper
1347, May 1984.
Monetary Strategy with an
Elastic Price Standard, Price Stability and Public Policy: A Symposium
Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of
The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs
and Quits to Demand (with Edward Lazear), Journal of Labor
Economics, 1984, 2(2), pp. 233-257.
1983
Optimal Fiduciary Monetary Systems, Journal of Monetary Economics, July 1983, 12(1), pp. 33-50.
Is Unemployment a
Macroeconomic Problem? AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol.
73, No. 2, May 1983.
Macroeconomic Policy
under Structural Change, Industrial Change and Public Policy, A Symposium
Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1983, pp. 85-111.
1982
Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Review from the Perspective of New Development in Monetary Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XX, December 1982, pp. 1552-1556.
The Importance of Lifetime Jobs
in the U.S. Economy, American Economic Review, September 1982,
72(4), pp. 716-724.
The Sensitivity of Consumption to
Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households (with Frederic Mishkin), Econometrica,
March 1982, 50(2), pp. 461-481.
Explorations in the Gold
Standard and Related Policies for Stabilizing the Dollar, in Robert E.Hall (ed.), Inflation: Causes and Effects,
Macroeconomic Policy for
a Substantial Transfer of Resources during a Defense Emergency, unpublished,1982.
The Minimum Wage and Job
Turnover in Markets for Young Workers, in Richard B. Freeman
and David A. Wise (eds.) The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes,
and Consequences, University of Chicago Press, 1982, pp. 475-97.
1981
The Government and the Monetary Unit, unpublished, December 1981.
A Proposal
to Simplify our Tax System (with Alvin Rabushka), Wall
Street Journal, December 10, 1981.
Comment on Davidson &
Hendry’s “Interpreting Economic Evidence,” European
Economic Review, Vol. 16, 1981, pp. 193-194.
The Role of the
Government in Stabilizing Prices and Regulating Money, unpublished, January
1981.
Tax Treatment of
Depreciation, Capital Gains, and Interest in an Inflationary Economy, in Charles R. Hulten (ed.), Depreciation,
Inflation, and the Taxation of Income from Capital,
1980
Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations, in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1980, 12, pp. 7-33.
Employment Fluctuations
and Wage Rigidity, in George L. Perry (ed.), Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity 1, The Brookings Institution,
Stabilization Policy and
Capital Formation, American Economic Review, Vol. 70, No. 2, May
1980, pp.167-63.
1979
Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand (with David Lilien), American Economic Review, December 1979, 69(5), pp. 868-879.
The Role of Prevailing
Prices and Wages in the Efficient Organization of Markets, NBER Working Paper
0386, August 1979.
A Theory of the Natural
Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Employment, Journal of
Monetary Economics, April 1979, 5(2), pp. 1-17.
Intertemporal
Substitution and Aggregate Fluctuations, unpublished, 1979.
The Measurement and
Significance of Labor Turnover (with David Lilien), Concepts
and Data Needs, National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
1979, pp. 577-600.
1978
Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, December 1978, 86(6), pp. 971-987.
Controlling Inflation, unpublished, November
1978.
Distribution of Permanent
Income (with Dennis W. Carlton), in Zvi
Griliches, Wilhelm Krelle,
Hans-Jurgen Krupp, Oldrich Kyn (eds.), Income Distribution and Economic Inequality,
The Macroeconomic Impact
of Changes in Income Taxes in the Short and Medium Runs, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 386,
No. 2, 1978, pp. S71-S85.
The Nature and
Measurement of Unemployment, NBER Working Paper 0252, July 1978.
Some Evidence on the
Sources of Economic Fluctuations, unpublished, June 1978.
The Unemployment
Explosion of the 1970s, unpublished, February 1978.
1977
An Aspect of the Economic Role of Unemployment, from Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1977.
The Conflicting Goals of
National Energy Policy (with Robert S. Pindyck, The Public Interest, No. 47, 1977.
The Effectiveness of
Training Programs in Raising Earnings, in Seymour L. Wolfbein (ed.), Men in thePre-Retirement
Years,
Investment, Interest
Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization Policies, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1977, pp. 61-121.
1976
Notes on the Current State of Empirical Macroeconomics, unpublished, June 1976.
Occupational Mobility and
the Distribution of Occupational Success among Young Men (with Richard Kasten), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
Vol. 66, May 1976, pp. 309-315.
An Economic Appraisal of
the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act, Testimony before House
Subcommittee, April 1976.
An Approximate Divisia Index of Total Factor Productivity (with Spencer Star), Econometrica, Vol. 44, No. 2, March 1976.
The Phillips Curve in
Macroeconomics Policy, in K. Brunner, A.
Meltzer (eds.), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Amsterdam:
North-Holland, 1976.
1975
The Taxation of Earnings under Public Assistance (with N. A. Barr), Economica, November 1975.
The Effects of the
Experimental Negative Income Tax on Labor Supply, in Pechman
and Timpane (eds.), Work Incentives and Income
Guarantees: The
The Rigidity of Wages and
the Persistence of Unemployment, Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity, Vol. 2, 1975, pp. 301-349.
1974
Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models (with E. Berndt, B. Hall, and J. Hausman), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665.
The Process of Inflation
in the Labor Market, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2,
1974, pp. 343-409.
The Distribution of
Unobserved Variables, unpublished, January 1974.
1973
On the Statistical Theory of Unobserved Components, unpublished, August 1973.
The Specification of Technology
with Several Kinds of Output, Journal of
Political Economy, July-August 1973, 81(4), pp. 878-892.
Wages, Income, and Hours of Work
in the U.S. Labor Force, in H. Watts and G. Cain, Income Maintenance and
Labor Supply: Econometric Studies, Rand McNally, 1973, pp. 102-162.
The Relative Occupational
Success of Blacks and Whites (with Richard Kasten), Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1973, pp. 781-797.
A Contribution to the
Econometric Theory of Unobserved Components, unpublished, January
1973.
1972
Turnover in the Labor Force, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1972, 3, pp. 709-756.
Book Review of Microeconomic
Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, ed. Phelps, Journal
of Economic Literature, March 1972.
The
Variation in Hours of Work among Individuals, unpublished, January 1972.
1971
The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Foresight, Review of Economic Studies, April 1971, 38(114), pp. 229-244.
The Measurement of Quality Change
from Vintage Price Data, in Zvi Griliches
(ed.), Price Indexes and Quality Change,
Application of the Theory
of Optimum Capital Accumulation (with Dale W.
Jorgenson), in G. Fromm (ed.), The Effect of
Tax Incentives on Investment,
The Market for
Professional and Technical Workers, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1971, pp. 213-218.
Prospects for Shifting
the Phillips Curve Through Manpower Policy, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1971, pp. 659-701.
1970
Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970, 3, pp. 369-410.
The Calculation of Ordinary
Least Squares Estimates, unpublished, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley, March
1970.
Unionism and the
Inflationary Bias of Labor Markets, unpublished, January
1970.
1960s
Tax Policy and Investment
Behavior (with Dale W. Jorgenson), American Economic Review,
June 1967, 57(3), pp. 391-414. Reply and Further Results, American Economic
Review, June 1969,
59(3), pp. 388-401.
Simulation Methods for Intertemporal Economic Models, UC Berkeley Working
Paper, October 1968.
Transform Methods for the
Study of Distributed Lags, UC Berkeley Working Paper in Economic Theory and
Econometrics, #132, June 1968.
Consumption Taxes versus Income
Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth, in Proceedings
of the 61st Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, 1968,
pp. 125-145.
A Flexible Infinite
Distributed Lag (with Richard C. Sutch),
Committee on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Institute of Business and
Economic Research, UC Berkeley Working Paper No. 124, February 1968.
Technical Change and Capital from
the Point of View of the Dual, Review of Economic Studies, January 1968,
35(101), pp. 35-46.
Polynomial Distributed
Lags, MIT Working Paper, July 1967.
Essays on the Theory of
Wealth, MIT Ph.D. Thesis, June 1967.
The Burden of Slavery, unpublished, January
1966.
The
Population of England in the 14th and 15th Centuries, unpublished, 1965.
Investment
in Equipment and Structures, 1929-1961, Berkeley, Bachelor’s Thesis,
May, 1964.