CURRICULUM VITAE DAVID ROTH ROGOSA School of Education Stanford University Stanford, California 94305 (415) 725-1250 rag@leland.stanford.edu EDUCATION: A.B. Physics, Princeton University, 1972 M.S. Statistics, Stanford University, 1974 Ph.D. Education, Stanford University, 1977 Major: Mathematical Methods in Educational Research Minor: Evaluation EMPLOYMENT: 9/85- Associate Professor, School of Education, Stanford University and, by courtesy, Department of Statistics, Stanford University (9/87- ) and, by courtesy, Division of Biostatistics in the Department of Health Research and Policy, School of Medicine (9/90- ) 9/80 - 8/85. Assistant Professor, School of Education, Stanford University 1/77 - 8/80. Assistant Professor, Department of Education, The University of Chicago CREDENTIALS: New Jersey Secondary School Teaching Credential in Mathematics New Jersey Secondary School Teaching Credential in Physical Science FELLOWSHIPS: Summer Research Fellow, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, New Jersey,1975 National Academy of Education Spencer Fellowship, 1979-82 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1987-88 MEMBERSHIPS IN PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATIONS: American Educational Research Association American Statistical Association Psychometric Society PUBLICATIONS Journal Articles Rogosa, D. R. (1978). Comments on the ESAA evaluation report. Journal of Educational Statistics, 3, 79-86. Rogosa, D. R. (1980). Comparisons of some procedures for analyzing longitudinal panel data. Journal of Economics and Business, 32, 136-151. Rogosa, D. R. (1980). A critique of cross-lagged correlation. Psychological Bulletin, 88, 245-258. Rogosa, D. R. (1980). Comparing nonparallel regression lines. Psychological Bulletin, 88, 307-321. Rogosa, D. R. (1980). Comment on "Using empirical Bayes Techniques in the law school validity studies" by Donald B. Rubin. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 819-822. Rogosa, D. R. (1981). On the relationship between the Johnson-Neyman region of significance and statistical tests of parallel within-group regressions. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 41, 127-134. Rogosa, D. R., Brandt, D., & Zimowski, M. (1982). A growth curve approach to the measurement of change. Psychological Bulletin, 92, 726-748. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. (1983). Demonstrating the reliability of the difference score in the measurement of change. Journal of Educational Measurement, 20, 335-343. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. (1983). Comparing two indices of tracking. Biometrics, 39, 795-6. Rogosa, D. R., Floden, R. E., & Willett, J. B. (1984). Assessing the stability of teacher behavior. Journal of Educational Psychology, 76, 1000-1027. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. (1985). Satisfying a simplex structure is simpler than it should be. Journal of Educational Statistics, 10, 99-107. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. (1985). Understanding correlates of change by modeling individual differences in growth. Psychometrika, 50, 203-228. Rogosa, D. R. (1987). Casual models do not support scientific conclusions: A comment in support of Freedman. Journal of Educational Statistics, 12, 185-195. Rogosa, D. R., and Ghandour, G. A. (1991). Statistical models for behavioral observations (with discussion). Journal of Educational Statistics, 16, 157-252. Rogosa, D. R., and Ghandour, G. A. (1991). Reply to discussants: Statistical models for behavioral observations. Journal of Educational Statistics, 16, 281-294. Rogosa, D. R. (in press) . Individual trajectories as the starting point for longitudinal data analysis. Alzheimer Disease and Associated Disorders, 6. Rogosa, D. R., and Saner, H. M. (in press). Longitudinal data analysis examples with random coefficient models. Journal of Educational Statistics, 19. Book Chapters Rogosa, D. R. (1979). Causal models in longitudinal research: Rationale, formulation, and interpretation. In Longitudinal methodology in the study of behavior and development, J. R. Nesselroade and P. B. Baltes, Eds. New York: Academic Press, 263-302. Rogosa, D. R. (1980). Time and time again: Some analysis problems in longitudinal research. In The analysis of educational productivity, volume II: Issues in microanalysis, C. E. Bidwell and D. M. Windham, Eds. Boston: Ballinger Press, 153-201. Danforth, D. G., Rogosa, D. R., & Suppes, P. (1981). Application of learning models to speech recognition over a telephone. In University-level computer-assisted instruction at Stanford: 1968-80, P. Suppes, Ed. Stanford, CA: Institute for Mathematical Studies in the Social Sciences, 589-600. Rogosa, D. R. (1982). Discussion of "Item and score conversion by pooled judgment." In Test equating, P. W. Holland and D. B. Rubin, Eds. New York: Academic Press, 319-326. Rogosa, D. R. (1985). Analysis of reciprocal effects. In International Encyclopedia of Education, T. Husen and N. Postlethwaite, Eds. London: Pergamon Press, 4221-4225. (reprinted in Educational Research, Methodology & Measurement: An international handbook, J. P. Keeves Ed. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988.) Book Chapters (cont'd) Rogosa, D. R. (1988). Myths about longitudinal research. In Methodological issues in aging research, K. W. Schaie, R. T. Campbell, W. M. Meredith, and S. C. Rawlings, Eds. New York: Springer Publishing Company, 171-209. Rogosa, D. R. (1991). A longitudinal approach to ATI research: Models for individual growth and models for individual differences in response to intervention. In Improving inquiry in social science: A volume in honor of Lee J.Cronbach, R. E. Snow and D. E. Wiley, Eds. Hillsdale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 221-248. Rogosa, D. R. (1993). Individual unit models versus structural equations: Growth curve examples. In Statistical modeling and latent variables, K. Haagen, D. Bartholomew, and M. Diestler, Eds. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland, 259- 281. Rogosa, D. R. (in press) . Myths and Methods: "Myths about longitudinal research," plus supplemental questions. In The analysis of change, J. M. Gottman, Ed. Hillsdale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. EXTERNAL RESEARCH GRANTS Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data in Educational Research. The Spencer Foundation, January 1980-June 1981. Assessing the Stability of Teacher Behaviors and Teacher Effectiveness. National Institute of Education, Program for Teaching and Instruction (Grant #NIE-G-81- 0087). Co-principal Investigator with Robert Floden, Michigan State. July 1981- June 1982. Improving the Collection and Statistical Analysis of Observational Data in Research on Teaching. The Spencer Foundation, July 1982-December 1984. Use of Student Achievement Measures in Judicial Decisions. National Institute of Education, December 1984-December 1985. Assessment of Academic Progress for Minority Students in San Diego Schools. (In collaboration with Dr. Dean Nafziger, San Diego City Schools). Hewlett Foundation; Stanford/Schools Collaborative, January 1987 January 1988. TECHNICAL REPORTS & COMPUTER SOFTWARE Cronbach, L. J., Rogosa, D. R., Floden, R. E., & Price, G. G. Analysis of covariance in nonrandomized experiments: Parameters affecting bias. Occasional Paper, Stanford Evaluation Consortium, Stanford University, 1977. Danforth, D., Rogosa, D. R., & Suppes, P. Learning models and real-time speech recognition. Technical Report 233, Institute for Mathematical Studies in the Social Sciences, Stanford University, 1974. Rogosa, D. R. Some results for the Johnson-Neyman technique. Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University, 1977. Dissertation Abstracts International 1978, 38, 5366- A. (University Microfilms No. 78-02, 225). Rogosa, D. R., Williamson, G. W., and Schaeffer, E. S. Use of Student Achievement Measures in Judicial Decisions: Assessment of Student Academic Progress, December 1986. (ERIC document TM014438). Rogosa, D. R., and Ghandour, G. A. timepath: Statistical analysis of individual trajectories. Stanford University, 1989. Rogosa, D. R. Longitudinal Analysis of Student Achievement Data: Issues for Chapter 1 Evaluation. In Planning Papers for the National Longitudinal Study of Chapter 1, U.S. Department of Education, Office of Planning, Budget & Evaluation, 1989. Rogosa, D. R., and Ghandour, G. A. Mathematica Routines for Statistical Models for Behavioral Observations. Stanford University, November 1991. Rogosa, D. R. Summarizing group performance using cutting scores. California Department of Education (Research, Evaluation, Technology Division), May 1993. PRESENTATIONS AND CONFERENCE PAPERS Ambron, S. R., & Rogosa, D. R. Structural equation models and causal inference in child development research. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Washington, D.C., April 1975. Breland, H. M., & Rogosa, D. R. Validating placement tests. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, April 1976. Danforth, D., Rogosa, D. R., & Suppes, P. Speaking of learning models. In L. Erman (Ed.), Proceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Speech Recognition. Pittsburgh: Carnegie-Mellon University Press, 1974. Rogosa, D. R. Measurement error and the Johnson-Neyman technique. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, New York, April 1977. Rogosa, D. R. Aggregation, quasiexperiments, and other wonders. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, New York, April 1977. Rogosa, D. R. A hierarchy of error: Psychometric interpretations of multi-level data analysis. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Toronto, March 1978. Rogosa, D. R. Caricatures of quasiexperiments. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Toronto, March 1978. Rogosa, D. R. Alternative procedures for analyzing longitudinal panel data. Presented at the Alternative Designs Conference, National Institute of Education, Washington, D.C., October 1978. Rogosa, D. R. Discussion on Methodological Issues in Research on Young Children. Presented at the Biennial Meeting of the Society for Research in Child Development, San Francisco, March 1979. Rogosa, D. R. Comparing nonparallel regression lines. Colloquium presentation at University of Chicago, Department of Statistics, November 1978; at Stanford University, Department of Statistics, April 1979. Rogosa, D. R. Longitudinal hierarchical data. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, April 1979. Rogosa, D. R. Discussion on Methodological Issues. Presented at the HEW School Finance Project's Conference on Resource Allocation, Service Delivery, and School Effectiveness, Washington, D.C., September 1979. Rogosa, D. R. Discussion on Data Analysis. Presented at Johns Hopkins University National Symposium on Educational Research: "Educational Evaluation Methodology: The State of the Art," Washington, D.C., November 1979. Presentations and Conference Papers (cont'd) Rogosa, D. R. Cross-lagged correlation is a bad idea. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Boston, April 1980; at University of Illinois, Urbana, Department of Educational Psychology, October 1978; at University of Texas, School of Education, April 1978. Rogosa, D. R. A growth-curve approach to the measurement of change. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Boston, April 1980. Rogosa, D. R. Assessing the stability of teacher behaviors and teacher effectiveness. Presented at the Institute for Research on Teaching Invisible College Meetings, New York, March 1982. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. Understanding correlates of change by modeling individual differences in growth. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Los Angeles, June 1983. Rogosa, D. R. Myths about longitudinal research. Presented at the Stanford-Berkeley Colloquium on Quantitative Methods in Behavioral Science, U.C. Berkeley, May 1983; at Vanderbilt University, Peabody College of Education, December 1983; at National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, June 1984; at Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences, August 1984; at Stanford University, Department of Psychology, October 1985; at Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, May 1987; at Department of Psychology, University of Washington, May 1991. Rogosa, D. R. What good is a generalizable measure of behavior, anyhow? Presented at the Institute for Research on Teaching Invisible College Meetings, New Orleans, April 1984; at University of California, Los Angeles, School of Education, June 1984. Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. Satisfying a simplex structure is simpler than it should be. Presented at Invited Symposium "Statistical Analysis of Growth and Learning" (D. Rogosa, Chair) Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Santa Barbara, June 1984. Rogosa, D. R. A growth curve approach to longitudinal panel data. Colloquium presentation at Stanford University, Department of Statistics, June 1985. Rogosa, D. R. Don't use traditional psychometric procedures to analyze behavioral observations. Stanford-Berkeley Colloquium on Quantitative Methods in Behavioral Science, U.C. Berkeley, May 1986; Invited address, Psychometric Society Meetings, Los Angeles, June 1988. Rogosa, D. R. A growth curve approach to longitudinal, nonexperimental data. Presented at the "Strengthening Causal Interpretations of Non-experimental Data Conference" Tucson, Arizona, April 1987. Sponsored by the National Center for Health Services Research. Rogosa, D. R. Longitudinal assessment of student progress in achievement. Invited workshop at the Annual Meetings of the California Educational Research Association, Sunnyvale, November 1987; Symposium presentation, American Educational Research Association Annual Meetings, New Orleans, April 1988. Presentations and Conference Papers (cont'd) Rogosa, D. R. Casual models do not support scientific conclusions. Invited address, American Educational Research Association Annual Meetings, New Orleans, April 1988; Invited Symposium Presentation, 1989 American Statistical Association Winter Conference "Statistics in Society", San Diego, January 1989; Department of Psychology Colloquium, Stanford University, February 1989; Presented at American Institutes for Research, Palo Alto, July 1991. Rogosa, D. R. A growth curve approach to the analysis of quantitative change. Invited presentation at "Best Methods for Analyzing Change" Conference, Los Angeles, October 1989. Rogosa, D. R. Measuring growth and change in school settings. Invited Training Presession, National Council on Measurement in Education, Boston, April 1990. Rogosa, D. R. Model building and causal inference in applied problems. Biostatistics Colloquium, Stanford University, May 1990; Invited Address, XVth International Biometric Conference, Budapest, Hungary, July 1990; Biostatistics Seminar, University of California, San Francisco, October 1990. Rogosa, D. R. Individual unit models and the analysis of associations. Presented at Conference on Statistical Association Models, Weisbaden, Germany, July 1990; at the International Workshop on Statistical Modelling and Latent Variables, University of Trento, Italy, July 1991. Rogosa, D. R. Summarizing school performance using cutting scores. Presented at California Accountability Index Advisory Board Meeting, Sponsored by California State Department of Education, Burlingame CA, July 1990. Rogosa, D. R. Behavior of behavioral observations. Department of Statistics Colloquium, Stanford University, May 1990; Journal of Educational Statistics Invited Paper, American Statistical Association Annual Meeting, Anaheim CA, August 1990; Department of Psychology Colloquium, University of Washington, May 1991; Colloquium, School Of Education, U. C. Berkeley, May 1992. Rogosa, D. R. What I know and what to do with it: Workshop in longitudinal data analysis. Department of Psychology, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ, September 1990; Department of Psychology, University of Washington, May 1991. Rogosa, D. R. A common-sense view of Bryk and Raudenbush's HLM. Presented at American Institutes for Research, Palo Alto, February 1992. Rogosa, D. R. Misclassification in student performance categories. Presentation to Technical Advisory Committee, California Assessment Program, Los Angeles, December 1992. Presentations and Conference Papers (cont'd) Rogosa, D. R. Measuring student and school performance. Biostatistics Colloquium, Stanford University School of Medicine, May 1993. Rogosa, D. R. Group summaries with performance levels and performance standards. Presentation to Technical Advisory Committee, California Learning Assessment System, Oakland, July 1993. Rogosa, D. R., and Saner, H. M. Longitudinal data analysis examples with random coefficient models. Presented at Workshop on Multilevel Modeling in the Social Sciences, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica CA, October 1993; Department of Psychology, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ, October 1993; Presented at American Institutes for Research, Palo Alto, November 1993. SELECTED CONSULTING AND SERVICE ACTIVITIES Member, Technical Advisory Committee, California Assessment Program, California State Department of Education, 1978 (now California Learning Assessment System, 1994-) Member, California Accountability Index Task Force (1989 - 1990), and Consultant, California School Performance Report. Research, Evaluation and Technology Division, California State Department of Education, 1990 93 Consultant, Dropout Assistance Demonstration Program, American Institutes for Research, 1989 93 Consultant, Longitudinal Study of Chapter 1, U.S. Department of Education, 1988-89. Consultant, National Longitudinal Transition Study of Special Education Students, SRI International, 1986-88. Consultant, Longitudinal Study of Immersion Programs for Language Minority Children, U. S. Department of Education, 1987-88. Member, Longitudinal Research Steering Committee, National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Mental Health, Foundation for Child Development, 1984-88. Consultant, Cognitive Consequences of Computer Learning, Lawrence Hall of Science, U. C. Berkeley, 1983-89. Consultant, Multi-purpose Senior Services Project, State of California, Health and Welfare Agency, 1983-84. Member, and Chair (1986) Palmer O. Johnson Memorial Award Committee, American Educational Research Association, 1985-86 . JOURNAL AND GRANT REVIEWING American Journal of Sociology American Psychologist American Statistician British Journal of Education Research Child Development Journal of the American Statistical Association Journal of Educational Measurement Journal of Educational Psychology Journal of Educational Statistics National Institute of Education National Institutes of Health -- Health Services Research National Institute of Mental Health National Science Foundation -- Science Education Program National Science Foundation -- Statistics Program Psychological Bulletin Psychometrika Review of Educational Research Review of Research in Education Sociological Methodology Spencer Foundation