log type:  text

 opened on:  29 Oct 2003, 11:08:32

 

. set linesize 79

 

. use "C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\death penalty, again.dt

> a", clear

 

. describe

 

Contains data from C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\death penalty, again.d

> ta

  obs:             8                          

 vars:             8                          29 Oct 2003 00:08

 size:           152 (99.9% of memory free)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              storage  display     value

variable name   type   format      label      variable label

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

count           int    %8.0g                 

defendant       byte   %8.0g       race      

victim          byte   %8.0g       race      

penalty         byte   %8.0g       death     

Logit_C         float  %9.0g                  Linear prediction

count_plus      float  %9.0g                 

_x_1            byte   %8.0g                  defendant==2

_x_2            byte   %8.0g                  victim==2

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorted by: 

 

. tabulate penalty [fweight=count]

 

    penalty |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.

------------+-----------------------------------

         no |        290       88.96       88.96

        yes |         36       11.04      100.00

------------+-----------------------------------

      Total |        326      100.00

 

. table defendant [fweight=count], contents(mean penalty)

 

-------------------------

defendant | mean(penalty)

----------+--------------

    white |        .11875

    black |        .10241

-------------------------

 

. *Whites in the sample are more likely to get the death penalty

.

. table victim defendant [fweight=count], contents (mean penalty freq)

 

----------------------------

          |    defendant   

   victim |   white    black

----------+-----------------

    white | .125828  .174603

          |     151       63

          |

    black |       0  .058252

          |       9      103

----------------------------

 

. tabulate victim defendant penalty [fweight=count]

too many variables specified

r(103);

 

. sort victim

 

. by victim: tabulate defendant penalty [fweight=count]

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

-> victim = white

 

           |        penalty

 defendant |        no        yes |     Total

-----------+----------------------+----------

     white |       132         19 |       151

     black |        52         11 |        63

-----------+----------------------+----------

     Total |       184         30 |       214

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

-> victim = black

 

           |        penalty

 defendant |        no        yes |     Total

-----------+----------------------+----------

     white |         9          0 |         9

     black |        97          6 |       103

-----------+----------------------+----------

     Total |       106          6 |       112

 

 

 

. *First let me show a couple of loglinear models and logistic regressions models that

correspond, i.e., are the same

. desmat: poisson count penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                               -103.089

   LR chi square:                                                                 225.419

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            1

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.522

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     penalty

1      yes                                                             -2.086**     0.177

2    _cons                                                              4.284**     0.059

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poigof

unrecognized command:  poigof

r(199);

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  170.4961

         Prob > chi2(6)        =    0.0000

 

. logistic penalty [fweight=count], coef

 

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        326

                                                  LR chi2(0)      =       0.00

                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .

Log likelihood =  -113.2564                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0000

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     penalty |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

       _cons |  -2.086362    .176709   -11.81   0.000    -2.432705   -1.740019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

. *These two models are the same in coefficient and predicted values.

. lfit, table

 

Logistic model for penalty, goodness-of-fit test

 

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

  | Group |   Prob | Obs_1 | Exp_1 | Obs_0 | Exp_0 | Total |

  |-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------|

  |     1 | 0.1104 |    36 |  36.0 |   290 | 290.0 |   326 |

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

 

  +----------------+

  | Group |   Prob |

  |-------+--------|

  |     1 | 0.1104 |

  +----------------+

 

       number of observations =       326

 number of covariate patterns =         1

              Pearson chi2(0) =         0.00

                  Prob > chi2 =              .

 

. *The logistic regression models can be created to mimic some of the loglinear models,

that is they provide the same coefficients and the same predictions, but logistic regression

collapses the variables you don't use, so here it has zero residual degrees of freedom.

. desmat: poisson count defendant victim penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -86.805

   LR chi square:                                                                 257.986

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            3

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.598

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                            0.037       0.111

     victim

2      black                                                           -0.647**     0.117

     penalty

3      yes                                                             -2.086**     0.177

4    _cons                                                              4.537**     0.091

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  137.9293

         Prob > chi2(4)        =    0.0000

 

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -21.907

   LR chi square:                                                                 387.784

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            4

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.898

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.874**     0.150

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.820**     0.343

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.312**     0.379

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -2.086**     0.177

5    _cons                                                              4.900**     0.084

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  8.131552

         Prob > chi2(3)        =    0.0434

 

. *What about interactions of race of victim and death penalty?

. *The above model fits fairly well, while completely ignoring race effects on death penalty

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim defendant*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -21.796

   LR chi square:                                                                 388.005

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            5

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.899

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.856**     0.155

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.820**     0.343

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.312**     0.379

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -2.004**     0.244

     defendant.penalty

5      black.yes                                                       -0.166       0.354

6    _cons                                                              4.891**     0.086

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  7.910102

         Prob > chi2(2)        =    0.0192

 

. *This suggests no relationship between defendant's race and the death penalty.

. desmat: poisson count defendant*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                               -102.923

   LR chi square:                                                                 225.751

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            3

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.523

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                            0.055       0.117

     penalty

2      yes                                                             -2.004**     0.244

     defendant.penalty

3      black.yes                                                       -0.166       0.354

4    _cons                                                              4.256**     0.084

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *Even here, without accounting for defendant*victim, the defendant*penalty interaction is indistinguishable from zero.

. desmat: poisson count defendant*penalty victim

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -86.695

   LR chi square:                                                                 258.207

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            4

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.598

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                            0.055       0.117

     penalty

2      yes                                                             -2.004**     0.244

     defendant.penalty

3      black.yes                                                       -0.166       0.354

     victim

4      black                                                           -0.647**     0.117

5    _cons                                                              4.528**     0.093

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  137.7078

         Prob > chi2(3)        =    0.0000

 

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim victim*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -18.782

   LR chi square:                                                                 394.033

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            5

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.913

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.874**     0.150

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.724**     0.345

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.312**     0.379

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -1.814**     0.197

     victim.penalty

5      black.yes                                                       -1.058*      0.464

6    _cons                                                              4.866**     0.086

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  1.881837

         Prob > chi2(2)        =    0.3903

 

. *There does seem to be a significant interaction between victim's race and the death penalty

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim victim*penalty defendant*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -18.191

   LR chi square:                                                                 395.215

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            6

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.916

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.940**     0.163

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.725**     0.344

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.358**     0.382

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -1.958**     0.245

     victim.penalty

5      black.yes                                                       -1.324*      0.519

     defendant.penalty

6      black.yes                                                        0.440       0.401

7    _cons                                                              4.885**     0.087

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  .7006815

         Prob > chi2(1)        =    0.4026

 

. *the logistic equivalent looks like this:

. desmat: logistic penalty [fweight=count] defendant victim, coef

invalid 'defendant'

r(198);

 

. desmat: logistic penalty defendant victim [fweight=count], coef

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   logistic

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                             penalty

   Number of observations:                                                            326

   fweight:                                                                         count

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -113.256

   Log likelihood:                                                               -109.541

   LR chi square:                                                                   7.431

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            2

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.033

   Prob:                                                                            0.024

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   defendant

1    black                                                              0.440       0.401

   victim

2    black                                                             -1.324*      0.519

3  _cons                                                               -1.958**     0.245

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. lfit, table

 

Logistic model for penalty, goodness-of-fit test

 

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

  | Group |   Prob | Obs_1 | Exp_1 | Obs_0 | Exp_0 | Total |

  |-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------|

  |     1 | 0.0362 |     0 |   0.3 |     9 |   8.7 |     9 |

  |     2 | 0.0551 |     6 |   5.7 |    97 |  97.3 |   103 |

  |     3 | 0.1237 |    19 |  18.7 |   132 | 132.3 |   151 |

  |     4 | 0.1798 |    11 |  11.3 |    52 |  51.7 |    63 |

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

 

  +------------------------------+

  | Group |   Prob | _x_1 | _x_2 |

  |-------+--------+------+------|

  |     1 | 0.0362 |    0 |    1 |

  |     2 | 0.0551 |    1 |    1 |

  |     3 | 0.1237 |    0 |    0 |

  |     4 | 0.1798 |    1 |    0 |

  +------------------------------+

 

       number of observations =       326

 number of covariate patterns =         4

              Pearson chi2(1) =         0.38

                  Prob > chi2 =         0.5400

 

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim victim*penalty defendant*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -18.191

   LR chi square:                                                                 395.215

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            6

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.916

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.940**     0.163

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.725**     0.344

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.358**     0.382

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -1.958**     0.245

     victim.penalty

5      black.yes                                                       -1.324*      0.519

     defendant.penalty

6      black.yes                                                        0.440       0.401

7    _cons                                                              4.885**     0.087

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof, pearson

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  .3755398

         Prob > chi2(1)        =    0.5400

 

. *These two models, the loglinear and the logistic have the same key interaction coefficients,

 the same interpretations, and the same goodness of fit statitics.

. *Now let's look at both versions of the saturated model.

. desmat: poisson count defendant*victim*penalty

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                              8

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -215.798

   Log likelihood:                                                                -17.841

   LR chi square:                                                                 395.915

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            7

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.917

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     defendant

1      black                                                           -0.932**     0.164

     victim

2      black                                                           -2.686**     0.345

     defendant.victim

3      black.black                                                      3.309**     0.385

     penalty

4      yes                                                             -1.938**     0.245

     defendant.penalty

5      black.yes                                                        0.385       0.413

     victim.penalty

6      black.yes                                                      -15.555    2096.899

     defendant.victim.penalty

7      black.black.yes                                                 14.326    2096.899

8    _cons                                                              4.883**     0.087

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *This is where the zero comes to bite us.

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  = -.0000579

         Prob > chi2(0)        =         .

 

. *now let's look at the logistic version of the saturated model.

. desmat: logistic penalty defendant*victim [fweight=count], coef

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   logistic

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                             penalty

   Number of observations:                                                            326

   fweight:                                                                         count

   Initial log likelihood:                                                       -113.256

   Log likelihood:                                                               -109.191

   LR chi square:                                                                   8.132

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            3

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.036

   Prob:                                                                            0.043

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   defendant

1    black                                                              0.385       0.413

   victim

2    black                                                            -16.335**     0.536

   defendant.victim

3    black.black                                                       15.105           .

4  _cons                                                               -1.938**     0.245

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *The coefficents are not exactly the same here as above, because both saturated models choke on the zero.

. lfit, table

 

Logistic model for penalty, goodness-of-fit test

 

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

  | Group |   Prob | Obs_1 | Exp_1 | Obs_0 | Exp_0 | Total |

  |-------+--------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------|

  |     1 | 0.0000 |     0 |   0.0 |     9 |   9.0 |     9 |

  |     2 | 0.0583 |     6 |   6.0 |    97 |  97.0 |   103 |

  |     3 | 0.1258 |    19 |  19.0 |   132 | 132.0 |   151 |

  |     4 | 0.1746 |    11 |  11.0 |    52 |  52.0 |    63 |

  +--------------------------------------------------------+

 

  +-------------------------------------+

  | Group |   Prob | _x_1 | _x_2 | _x_3 |

  |-------+--------+------+------+------|

  |     1 | 0.0000 |    0 |    1 |    0 |

  |     2 | 0.0583 |    1 |    1 |    1 |

  |     3 | 0.1258 |    0 |    0 |    0 |

  |     4 | 0.1746 |    1 |    0 |    0 |

  +-------------------------------------+

 

       number of observations =       326

 number of covariate patterns =         4

              Pearson chi2(0) =         0.00

                  Prob > chi2 =              .

 

-----------------------------------------------------------