Publications

Elis, Roy, D. Sunshine Hillygus and Norman H. Nie. 2010. "Prospective and Retrospective Evaluations and the Dynamics of Vote Choice in 2008." Electoral Studies In Press.

Abstract: In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.



Elis, Roy, Neil Malhotra and Marc Meredith. 2009. "Apportionment Cycles as Natural Experiments." Political Analysis 17(4):358-376.

Abstract: Although there are compelling theoretical reasons to believe that unequal political representation in a legislature leads to an unequal distribution of funds, testing such theories empirically is challenging because it is difficult to separate the effects of representation from the effects of either population levels or changes. We leverage the natural experiment generated by infrequent and discrete Census apportionment cycles to estimate the distributional effects of malapportionment in the U.S. House of Representatives. We find that changes in representation cause changes in the distribution of federal outlays to the states. Our method is exportable to any democratic system in which reapportionments are regular, infrequent, and non-strategic.



Fraga, Luis Ricardo and Roy Elis. 2009. "Interests and Representation: Ethnic Advocacy on California School Boards." Teachers College Record 111(3): 659-682.

Abstract: In this article, we determine whether the greater presence of Latinos on school boards in California is related to greater representation of coethnics among educational administrators and teachers. We then examine if there is any relationship between greater representation in the educational bureaucracy, and more favorable educational outcomes for Latino students. Using an original data set of all California school districts in the 2004–2005 school year, we tested these relationships for Latinos in California using multiple regression. Contrary to previous research, we find that Latino representation on California school boards was not greater under single-member district elections. We did, however, find that the greater presence of Latinos on school boards increased the likelihood that Latinos would be hired as administrators, but only in Latino-majority districts. After appropriate controls, districts with more Latino administrators also tended to have more Latino teachers. Last, and again contrary to previous research, we found no systematic impact of having more Latino teachers and administrators on enhancing student outcomes for either all Latino students or for English language learners.

Working Papers

"Democracy, Equality, and the Commitment to Redistribution"

"Legislative Discretion over Federal Expenditures: Evidence from Apportionment Cycles in the U.S. House, 1940-2006" (with Neil Malhotra and Marc Meredith)

"Local Democracy and Public Schooling in 19th-Century Buenos Aires"