Part II
 

8.4.1    Confirmation of 1040, #1:  Oracle inscriptions for Di Xin's campaign against the Ren Fang (or Yi Fang), in his 10th and 11th years, fit the years 1077-76, and these years only.  (As I explained in Chapter Five, these inscriptions taken together require (1) that the "10th year" end with day jiawu (31), yiwei (32), or bingshen (33); and that this year had a "9th month" followed by a lunar month lacking a "qi-center," therefore being intercalary.  1077 is the only possibility.)  Therefore Di Xin 1 = 1086.  But the Bamboo Annals date for Di Xin 1 is 1102, 16 years earlier.  The best explanation of this is that at some time in early Warring States the de facto first year of Zhou 1040, as Wu Wang 1, was confused with the de jure first year 1056, which also came to be seen as Wu Wang 1.  This would make Di Xin's 46th year appear to be 1057 rather than 1041.  This 16-year shift is seen in earlier Shang reigns in the Annals; e.g., Wu Yi's reign, actually 1145/43-1109,is made to be 1159-1125; and Zu Geng's reign, actually 1188-1178, is made to be 11 + 16 years earlier.  (It was supposed that his 11 years must precede Zu Jia's 33 years, instead of being the first 11 years of Zu Jia's "33 years."  See Chapter Four.)

8.4.2.    Confirmation of 1040, #2:  Oracle inscriptions show that Di Yi 1 = 1105.  (See Chapter Six.  The "8th year" inscription set consisting of Ku-fang 1661 and other fragments requires an intercalary 3rd month, and it fits only the year 1098, a date confirmed by several other inscriptions.)  A frequently quoted or paraphrased line from an unknown source, sometimes said to be the Da Dai li ji, says that "Wen Wang in (the/his) 15th year produced Wu Wang."  The meaning probably is the 15th year of Di Yi, i.e., 1091.  The Bamboo Annals says that Wu Wang died in his 54th year, which would have to be 1038.  If this was two years after the Conquest, the Conquest date must be 1040.

8.4.3.    Confirmation of 1040, #3:  In the Bamboo Annals the enfeoffment of Cheng Wang's younger brother Yu as lord of Tang, later Jin, is dated to 1035.  The compilers must have believed that Jupiter was in station Da Huo, Great Fire, in that year, which was 3 x 12 years after the conjunction, said to be in Fang (the middle lunar lodge of Da Huo) and in 1071.  The Guoyu, "Jin Yu" 4, says explicitly that when Jin began Jupiter was in Great Fire.  But Jupiter actually was in Great Fire in 1043 and 1031.  If in 1043, Wu Wang was still alive (even if the Conquest was in 1945; he is said to have died at the very end of the year of his death); and the story of the event in the Shiji shows that it was Cheng Wang's action, when he was still a minor but de jure king, hence during the Regency.  So it must have been in 1031.  This is confirmed by Zuo zhuan, Xi Gong 15.14, which implies that the shy Shang prince Ji Zi, enfeoffed in Korea, was present at the ceremony.  Ji Zi almost never came to court, but would have attended the great convocation recorded in the Annals in the summer of the last Regency year, the probable occasion of Tang-shu's enfeoffment.  This can only be so if the Regency was 1037-1031, and the Conquest was in 1040.

8.4.4.    Confirmation of 1040, #4:  The "Lu Shijia" in the Shiji says that Wu Wang granted Lu to Zhou Gong right after the Conquest, and that Zhou Gong gave it to his son Bo Qin soon after Cheng Wang's succession.  Only then does the account take up the revolt of Lu Fu and the royal uncles.  Liu Xin as quoted in the Han shu says that Bo Qin's reign in Lu was 46 years; and that it began in the first year of Cheng Wang's 30-year calendar (i.e., for me, his accession calendar).  The Shiji, "Lu Shijia," has a chronology of Lu dukes that implies that Bo Qin's death was in 999; so his first year would be 1044 (the first year of Cheng Wang's 37 years, in the Annals), but this is impossible.  The difficulty is resolved by careful analysis of the Bamboo Annals, which reveals that Bo Qin's actual death date must have been 990.  (The date given, 989, is due to distortions in the text, generated by (1) mourning intervals; and (2) the displaced three-year slip.  By (1), Bo Qin's first year was backed from 1035 to 1037; and by (2) his whole tenure was at first moved down three years., making his death date 990 + 2 – 3 = 989.  Later, most other 3-year displacements of dates were reversed, but Bo Qin's death date was not.  See Chapter Twelve.)  The trouble can be traced to the reign of Lu duke Xian Gong, who died in 856.  The Shiji gives him a reign of 32 years; the Annals account implies a reign of 23 years.  Thus Cheng Wang's dates are 1037/35-1006, 2 + 30 years; therefore the Conquest was in 1040.

8.4.5.    Confirmation of 1040, #5:  Yi Zhou shu 45, "Wu Jing" (Wu Wang warned) begins, "12th year, 4th month.  The king reported a dream. on day bingchen (53) it was divined...."  (We are supposed to understand that this dream was an omen portending the king's imminent death.)  "An order then was given for Dan, Duke of Zhou, to appoint the successor, and to give Prince Song the text (of the order), and a copy of the "Bao Dian" (Treasured Document)."  When a date is thus incomplete, normally the first of the month is meant, which should be yimao (52).  If the 12th year is 1038, the 4th month begins with yimao if one supposes that the day counted as winter solstice was two days late.  Shang oracle inscriptions suggest that this was the practice, i.e., the autumn equinox day was determined by observation, and the interval to the winter solstice (89 days) was assumed to be 91 days.  The "Bao Dian," which is Yi Zhou shu 29, opens with a complete date: "It was the King's 3rd cult-year, 2nd month, day bingchen (53), first of the month...."  This should be the same year, for if the 2nd month began with bingchen (53), the 4th month (30 + 29 days later) should begin with yimao (52).  The only year that could be "the King's 3rd year" and also, in another calendar (counting from the year following his father's death) his 12th year, is 1038, and 1038 only if the Conquest was in 1040.

8.4.6.  Confirmation of 1040, #6:  The "Luo Gao" chapter of the Shang shu ends with an account of a sacrifice by Cheng Wang, called cheng ji sui, on day wuchen (5), said in the pseudo- Kong Anguo commentary to be the last day of the month; and the "Luo Gao" dates the event in the 12th month of the 7th year of the Regency.  Two dates must be considered: 1036 and 1031.  1036 requires that the 12th month be the second month before the solstice month (possibly followed by an intercalary 12th month), the date being 27 November.  1031 requires that the date be 31 December, and that the next month begin one day earlier than indicated in Zhang Peiyu's tables (the syzygy was at 03:20, so this is likely).  The solstice was on dingmao (4), 30 December, and one may assume as before that a 91-day count from the equinox specified jisi (6), 1 January.  Thus if 1031 was the date, Cheng Wang thought he was sacrificing on the eve of the solstice, giving a plausible meaning for ji sui, "sacrifice for [the end of] the year," as well as a more satisfactory meaning for cheng, supposed to be a "winter sacrifice for royal ancestors."  In 1036, the date could not be at the end of the year, unless the next year were taken as beginning with the pre-solstice month, making the date the last day of autumn, rather than any date in "winter."  So 1031 seems to be the date, requiring that the Regency be 1037-1031, and that the Conquest be in 1040.

8.4.7.  Confirmation of 1040, #7:  The fact that the astrological text in the Guoyu can be best explained (as above, 8.1(b)) as calculated in the early fifth century BC, during the last years of Confucius' life, by someone who believed the Conquest to have been in 1040 BC, is itself a confirmation that 1040 is probably the correct date.
 

8.4.8.   Confirmation of 1040, #8:  Pankenier (1983 p. 241) has noted another text giving the location of Jupiter at the time of the launching of the Conquest campaign.  A commentary to the "Ju Xiao" chapter of Xunzi says that at that time Jupiter was in the "north."  Chun Huo would be due south, on an astrologer's chart.  Having explained "Chun Huo" as a calculator's error, one must consider the alternative "north."  If the campaign started in January of 1040, as would be required if one interpret the "Zhou Benji" data as in the Xia calendar, one finds that at that time Jupiter was in lunar lodge Xu, the middle lodge of station Xuan Xiao, due "north" on an astrologer's chart.

8.4.9.   Confirmation of 1040, #9:   Zheng Xuan (see Kong Yingda's commentary to the Odes of Bin in the Shi jing) said that Cheng Wang was born in Wu Wang's succession year.  We should expect that Zhou Gong would return full royal authority to the young king effective in the king's 20th year.  Thus Cheng Wang was born in 1049, was 13 sui at his succession in 1037, and was 20 sui in 1030.  The Regency therefore was 1037-1031, and this requires that the Conquest was in 1040.  (Zheng Xuan does not derive his date of Cheng Wang's birth from his date for Cheng Wang's assuming full power, which he puts in Cheng Wang's 22nd year; and his absolute dates are quite different; so this is independent evidence.)
 

8.4.10.  Confirmation of 1040, #10:  As Liu Xin quotes the "Wu Cheng" chapter of the Shang shu (in Ban Gu's Han shu, 21B), the  Conquest campaign is said to start in the first month.  But if I take the Shiji to be using a source that dated the events in the Xia calendar, that source must have made the campaign begin in the 11th month, because the Yellow River had been crossed by day wuwu in the 12th month.  As Liu quotes it, the "Wu Cheng" continues: "yue ruo lai er yue ... jiazi ..."  This is normally misinterpreted by supposing a break (or punctuation) after "lai."  But "lai er yue" is a single phrase, and it seems to mean "the second month in the next year."  Compare, for example, "lai dingmao," in the "Shi Fu" chapter (#37) of Yi Zhou shu, which has to mean (though this too is usually misinterpreted) "on day dingmao (4) of the next month," i.e., the 3rd month, since jiazi, the victory day, was the next to last day of the 2nd month.  (In oracle inscriptions, "lai dingmao" would normally mean "day dingmao in the next xun," or in a future xun.)  This shows that the "Wu Cheng" text is a modification of a text that originally did have the campaign beginning in the Xia 11th month.  This is just what my analysis requires, if the date is 1040.
 

8.4.11.   Confirmation of 1040, #11:   One might expect that astrologically weighted days would be preferred for the performance of important ceremonies or the inauguration of great events: the first day of the year, for major appointments; full moon day, for a holocaust sacrifice; the first day of a month and/or season, for the start of a campaign.  Similarly, the first days of the twenty-four weather periods could be expected to be thus favored.  If one starts with the true winter solstice day, and counts off the weather periods (qi jie) taking that day as the first day of Dong Zhi, the major events of the Conquest campaign fall on such days, if the year was 1045.  But if one supposes that the true autumn equinox was taken as Qiu Fen day (making the oberved winter solstice day two days late), then it is 1040 that satisfies this test:
 

     Qiu Fen        2 Oct 1041   JD 134 1473  +16
     Han Lu        18 Oct               1489   15
     Shuang Jiang   2 Nov               1504   15
     Li Dong       17 Nov               1519   15
     Xiao Xue       2 Dec               1534   15
     Da Xue        17 Dec               1549   15
     Dong Zhi       1 Jan 1040          1564   16
     Xiao Han      17 Jan               1580   15   Guisi   (30)
     Da Han         1 Feb               1595   15
     Li Chun       16 Feb               1610   15
     Yu Shui        3 Mar               1625   15
     Jing Zhi      18 Mar               1640   15
     Chun Fen       2 Apr               1655   16
     Qing Ming     18 Apr               1671   15   Jiazi    (1)
     Gu Yu          3 May               1686   15
     Li Xia        18 May               1701   16
     Xiao Man       3 Jun               1717   15   Gengxu  (47)
     Mang Zhong    18 Jun               1732   15
     Xia Zhi        3 Jul               1747   16
     Xiao Shu      19 Jul               1763   15
     Da Shu         3 Aug               1778   15
     Li Qiu        18 Aug               1793   15
     Chu Shu        2 Sep               1808   15
     Bai Lu        17 Sep               1823   15
     Qiu Fen        2 Oct               1838   16
 

The key events:
 

   Zhou month 1 / Xia month 11, day guisi (30) = 17 January, Campaign begins, first day of Xiao Han (Lesser Cold)
   Zhou month 4 / Xia month 2, day jiazi (1) = 18 April, Victory at Muye, first day of Qing Ming (Clear Brightness)
   Zhou month 6 / Xia month 4, day gengxu (47) = 3 June, Celebration in Zhou on full moon, first day of Xiao Man (Grain Ripening)
 

The sequence of solar periods (qi jie) here follows Huainanzi, "Tian Wen," 12th paragraph.  Ideally all periods are 15 days, but there must be five more days in a normal year; so the text says that there are 46 days from Dong Zhi through Da Han, from Chun Fen through Ku Yu, from Li Xia through Mang Zhong, from Xia Zhi through Da Shu, and from Qiu Fen through Shuang Jiang.  I interpret this as meaning in effect that the days Dong Zhi, Chun Fen, Li Xia, Xia Zhi, and Qiu Fen are extra days, so that beginning with each of these one counts 16 days.

8.4.11.1  Lunar months as given by Zhang Peiyu for 1040 begin on the following ganzhi; at three points, I propose months beginning one day later, to avoid having two short (29-day) months in sequence, and two pairs of long (30-day) months in the same year.  (In each case, the syzygy given by Zhang is late in the 24-hour day.)  I give Zhang's data first, with my regularizations below:

(a) 1040:  05   34   03   33   02   32   01   31   01   30   60   30

                     04        03        02

Xia month  11   12    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10

Zhou month  1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12
 

The major events occur in Xia months 11, 2, and 4.  The "Wu Cheng," as quoted by Liu Xin in Han shu 21B, says that the victory day jiazi (in Xia month 2) is five days (inclusive) after jisibo.  Therefore I take jisibo (Jsi below, beginning the fourth "quarter") as the 24th, in a month following a long (30-day) month, and as the 25th, in a month following a short (29-day) month (as does Xia month 2).  The victory day is the 29th, next-to-last (the month is a long month).

     In the following diagram, fei (F) is new moon day, standardized as the 2nd after a long (30-day) month and the 3rd after a short (29-day) month.  The day  zaishengbo (ZSh) is six days (inclusive) later, as in the introductory narrative at the beginning of the "Shao Gao" combined with the one at the beginning of the "Kang Gao" (8.1 (1983) (4) above).  Jishengbo (JSh) must be the next day, and jiwang (JW), full moon day, is standardized as always nine days later (see below).
(b)  Xia months 11 to 4, 23 December 1041 through 17 June 1040 (first days of qi periods are underlined)

   Month 11     Month 12     Month 1      Month 2      Month 3      Month 4
 

 1  (05) 23 Dec  (34) 21 Jan  (04) 20 Feb  (33) 21 Mar  (03) 20 Apr  (32) 19 May
 2  (06) Fei     (35)         (05) F       (34)         (04) F       (33)
 3  (07)         (36) F       (06)         (35) F       (05)         (34) F
 4  (08)         (37)         (07)         (36)         (06)         (35)
 5  (09)         (38)         (08)         (37)         (07)         (36)
 6  (10) ZSh     (39)         (09) ZSh     (38)         (08) ZSh     (37)
 7  (11) JSh     (40) ZSh     (10) JSh     (39) ZSh     (09) JSh     (38) ZSh
 8  (12)         (41) JSh     (11)         (40) JSh     (10)         (39) JSh
 9  (13) PSh     (42)         (12) PSh     (41)         (11) PSh     (40)
10  (14) Dong Zhi(43) PSh     (13)         (42) PSh     (12)         (41) PSh
11  (15)         (44) JPSh    (14)         (43) JPSh    (13)         (42) JPSh 1
12  (16)         (45)         (15)         (44)         (14)         (43)      2
13  (17)         (46)         (16)         (45) Chun Fen(15)         (44)      3
14  (18)         (47)         (17)         (46)         (16)         (45)      4
15  (19)         (48)         (18)         (47)         (17)         (46)      5
16  (20) Jiwang  (49)         (19) JW      (48)         (18) JW      (47)      6
17  (21)         (50) JW      (20)         (49) JW      (19)         (48) JW
18  (22)         (51)         (21)         (50)         (20)         (49)
19  (23)         (52)         (22)         (51)         (21)         (50)
20  (24)         (53)         (23)         (52)         (22)         (51)
21  (25)         (54)         (24)         (53)         (23)         (52)
22  (26)         (55)         (25)         (54)         (24)         (53)
23  (27)         (56)         (26)         (55)         (25)         (54)
24  (28) JSi     (57)         (27) JSi     (56)         (26) JSi     (55)
25  (29) PSi     (58) JSi     (28) PSi     (57) JSi  1  (27) PSi     (56) JSi
26  (30) Start   (59)         (29)         (58)      2  (28)         (57)
27  (31)         (60) Li Chun (30)         (59)      3  (29)         (58)
28  (32)         (01)         (31)         (60)      4  (30)         (59)
29  (33)         (02)         (32)         (01) Muye 5  (31) Li Xia  (60)
30               (03)                      (02)                      (01)

One must reconcile several accounts, some of them garbled by passing through hands of persons who did not understand the dates.  The "Wu Cheng" as quoted by Liu Xin says that Wu Wang started from his capital on guisi (30), the day after pangsibo (PSi), in the "1st month."  Using the "Zhou Benji," we can correct this to "11th month."  Yi Zhou shu, "Shi Fu," dates this action to dingwei (44), the day after pangshengbo (PSh), in the "1st month."  Here "1st month" together with the statement that Wu Wang was beginning his march repeats the quoted "Wu Cheng" error; but the rest of this date is meaningful, because Liu (not giving his source) says that on bingwu (43) Wu Wang "rejoined his army" (or reached his army), which must have been already in the field ahead of him; and my analysis shows that pangshengbo in my (i.e., Xia) "12th month" was in fact day bingwu.  This can be known from more of what Liu Xin quotes from the "Wu Cheng": "In the 4th month, six days (inclusive) after jipangshengbo (JPSh), day gengxu (47), Wu Wang offered a holocaust in the Zhou ancestral temple," i.e., after the victory and back in his capital.  Jipangshengbo, "the expansion of the birth of the (bo =) gibbous moon having occurred," ought to be the next day after pangshengbo.  (The fact that gengxu (47) in month 4 is dated on jipangshengbo shows that in a long month the 16th is the last day of the second quarter, which is thus nine days long.  I assume that in the 2nd "quarter," which is nine days, "pang" is two days after "ji," whereas in the "4th quarter," only six days long, it is the next day in a short month, but absent in a long month, as is required by the date of the victory at Muye, "five days (inclusive) after jisibo" near the end of the "2nd month.")  The "Shi Fu" confirms that the 4th month begins with yiwei (32), because it starts "4th month, yiwei day: Wu Wang had completed his mastery of the world," etc.; and there can be no reason for "yiwei" other than to date the beginning of the 4th month, in which the victory rites were performed.
 

8.4.11.2  But the victory was on Qing Ming day.  This is confirmed by the last line of the "Da Ming" ode in the "Da Ya" part of the Shi jing (Ode #236).  That ode narrates Heaven's favor to Zhou through Wang Ji, Wen Wang and Wu Wang, down to Wu Wang's victory.  The last line reads, "Si fa da shang, hui chao qing ming."  The meaning has escaped all translators and commentators known to me: the line says, "He (Wu Wang) then attacked Great Shang; this occurred in the morning, Qing Ming (Day)."  Thus the "Da Ming" ode is a Qing Ming Day hymn.

     (It is true that names of other qi periods are not known in texts as early as this.  But Qing Ming, the occasion of annual sacrifices to ancestors, is likely to be a very ancient name.  And the existence, even earlier than this, of the concept of qi periods (however named) can be demonstrated by an analysis of the earliest known system of 28 lunar xiu.  See my article in Aveni 1989.)

8.4.12   Confirmation of 1040, #12:  Professor D. N. Keightley has attempted to estimate the date of the Zhou Conquest by using an interesting probability argument, in his book Sources of Shang History (1978), and he reached exactly the dates that I am defending (p. 175):  Estimating an average of 20 years per reign, he counts back from 841 (the first year of the Gong He regency), getting 1041.  Then, counting forward from 1180, which is the last year he gives Wu Ding (I would have said 1189), and not counting Feng Xin (nor would I), he gets 1040.  I am arguing that the campaign began in late 1041 (in the Chinese calendar, i.e. 17 January 1040), and was concluded on 18 April, 1040.
 

8.5    The victory was apparently not decisive.  The battle was bloody, with great numbers of "ears taken"; the Shang king Di Xin was captured and killed.  But Wu Wang found it necessary to confirm Di Xin's son Lu Fu as the new Shang king, known as Wu Geng, in reality dividing authority with him, while at the same time naming three of his own brothers as "overseers" of the remaining Shang realm.  Shang dependent lords were accepted as Zhou vassals.  Much too soon after this, late in 1038, Wu Wang suddenly died.  His brother Dan, "Duke of Zhou," assumed authority as regent.  Dan persuaded another brother, Shi (Shao Gong) to support him; but the other brothers abroad, suspecting usurpation, rebelled, joining forces with Wu Geng.  Dan's suppression of the rebellion in two years, defeating and executing Wu Geng, was the real conquest.  After more military consolidation, a great assembly of lords was convoked in the summer of 1031, and at the end of the year Dan surrendered his authority to the young king, Cheng Wang, who was now of age, at 20 sui.
 

8.5.1   I add here a resume of the main events, with my dates, of the century ending in Cheng Wang's assuming full royal authority in 1030.  Annals dates are on the left, my own on the right:

Birth of Chang (= Wen Wang)                            1128
Death of Dan Fu                    1139                1127
Ji Li (= Wang Ji)                  1138                1126
Zhou victory                       1135                1123
Zhou victory                       1129                1117
Ji Li at court, given gifts        1125                1113
Zhou defeat                        1123                1111
Zhou victory                       1121                1109
Wenwu Ding 1                       1124                1118, 1108
Zhou victory                       1118                1106
Di Yi reign, year 1                1111                1105
Zhou victory                       1114                1102
Probable Di Yi accession celebration                   1102
Ji Li at court, imprisoned, dies   1114                1102
Wen Wang succeeds                  1113                1101
War between Zhou and Shang         1110 ?              1101 ?
Wenwu Ding dies                    1112                 ?
Wen Wang accession year                                1099
Earthquake in Zhou capital         1109                1093
Di Xin 1                           1102                1086
Ren Fang campaign                                      1077-1076
Lords assemble in Zhou             1082                1070
Royal hunt in Wei valley           1081                1069
New Shang calendar, probable court celebration         1068
Wen Wang at court, imprisoned      1080                1068
Lunar eclipse; Wen Wang writes sons                    1065
Wen Wang released                  1074                1062
Conjunction                        1071                1059
"Mandate"; Zhou defeats Mi         1070                1058
Zhou victories, Ji, Yu, Cong       1069                1057
Zhou capital moved to Feng         1068                1056
Zhou promulgates royal calendar                        1056
Lords assemble in Zhou capital     1067                1055
Shang campaign against Eastern Yi                      1055-54 ?
Zhou plans new capital at Hao      1067                1055
Wen Wang dies, age 79 sui          1062                1050
Wu Wang succeeds                   1061                1049
Cheng Wang born                                        1049
Zhou show of force at Mengjin      1052                1045 ?
Ji Zi imprisoned in Shang          1052                1044 ?
Di Xin kills Bi Gan                1052                1043 ?
Wei Zi flees from Shang            1052                1042 ?
Zhou campaign begins               1051                1041
Zhou victory at Muye               1050                1040
Lu Fu made Shang king by Wu Wang   1050                1040
"Yin" overseers appointed          1050                1040
Lords received, enfeoffed          1049                1039
Wu Wang ill                        1048                1038
Wu Wang dies, age 54 sui           1045                1038
Cheng Wang succeeds; Regency       1044                1037
Lu Fu (Wu Geng), overseers rebel   1044                1037
Cheng Wang accession                                   1035
Rebellion put down                 1042                1035
Lords assemble in Zhou capital     1038                1031
Tang-shu enfeoffed                 1035                1031
Zhou Gong resigns regency          1038                1031
Cheng Wang, 20 sui, has full power 1037                1030

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