I trace the most important, and to me the most decisive, “what if?” situation
about Waterloo in not the exact day of Waterloo but just two days before:
16th of June 1815, when the battles of "Quatre-Bras" and "Ligny" were
fought simultaneously. When speaking of Waterloo, these three days of
actions from the 16th to 18th should be considered as a whole and as
subparts of the general term of "Waterloo", in a more broad sense. This is
because of the fact that after Napoleon had crossed the border and had engaged the Allies, the
events and decisions leading to the French disaster happened rapidly and
continuously as a 3-days long battle (similar to Leipzig maybe), though not
happened on a continuous front and though with a “no-action” day of 17th. Thus,
Waterloo cannot be abstracted from the battles of the 16th.
In 16th, when Marshal Ney was fighting against Wellington at Quatre-Bras,
General D'Erlon's I Corps of French Army was supposed to be under Ney's
command and Ney taken into account this corps to launch his decisive
assault on Wellington to master the crossroads at Quatre-Bras and also to
beat Wellington's army. After outnumbered Wellington managed to equate the balance of
manpower at Quatre-Bras, Ney had to wait for the arrival of the second infantry corps under his command, namely D'Erlon's I corps. At the same time and some miles east, Napoleon, however, was fighting the Prussians at Ligny and was thinking
about using this same corps. Although Napoleon crushed the Prussians, he was not
able to put them in a total rout and his plan was to use D'Erlon's corps to
envelop the right wing of the Prussian army. Clearly this would cause to a total
disaster for the Prussians and most probably they would not be able to even
think to continue fighting. Due to the lack of effective communications and some other
effects, General D'Erlon, whose corps was marching towards Quatre-Bras in a line
just between Napoleon at Ligny and Ney at Quatre-Bras, had received
inconsistent orders from both of his superiors, Ney and Napoleon, saying
him to march towards both west and east, respectively. He had to change the
marching direction of his corps twice and waste so many hours resulting in
an unfortunate situation that he could intervene decisively NONE of the engagements.
He passed the 16th by just marching back and forth between the two important battlefields.
As a result, Ney couldn’t beat English Army but only could prevent them joining the
Prussians at Ligny during 16th and then he was driven back to Frasnes, and Napoleon couldn’t totally enjoy his victory at Ligny by
eliminating the Prussian Army. Both Allied armies managed to survive the day
and continue to their course of rejoining afterwards.
The orders given to D'Erlon in 16th both by written and oral were very
controversial and were not totally put under light. What if this
discrepancy did not happen? What if Napoleon or someone from his staff did
not ask D'Erlon to march Ligny by by-passing his direct superior, Ney and
by neither considering Ney's plans nor informing him? What if Ney did not send an order to turn
D'Erlon for a second time when he was informed that I corps was marching
away from Quatre-Bras? What if D'Erlon did use his initiative other than
merely obeying the newly arrived order and did pursue only one of the ways
insistently and showed up either one of the battle scenes? (Ney's orders reached him when he was just about to arrive Ligny battlefield and deploying for attack.)
For sure, the course
of Waterloo in a general sense would be different and maybe the next battle
would be fought in somewhere else, resulting most probably in favor of the
French. If Ney was able to use D'Erlon's corps, he would crush the English
at Quatre-Bras and pursue them away from the Prussians. Or, if D'Erlon had
made contact with the left wing of Napoleon, most of the Prussian Army, which had already been beaten, would be destroyed and they could only retreat in total
disorder towards Namur, far away from the English.
I think this action of I corps in 16th played more decisive role than any
other action seen in this battle, I think even more than the engagements in
Waterloo itself.