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| Local Public Goods | Stanford | ITAM | CIDAC | |
These pages report a work in progress, preliminary analysis of the 2006 elections. Most of the data analysis is still tentative, so it is subject to error (although I will do my best to only post findings that seem to be relatively robust). None of the institutions with which I am affiliated are responsible for my opinions and interpretations. The Mexican election of 2006 turned out to be the most controversial since the transition to democracy that occurred in the late 1990s. Depending on the way one understands the hegemonic party, one can time the transition in Mexico to 1994, when the first free and fair presidential elections took place (although the PRI still won); 1997, when the PRI lost its majority in the lower chamber; or 2000, when it finally lost the presidential race to Vicente Fox. The challenge of democratic consolidation requires a second round of elections, where the losers recognize their defeat and the winner can take office. The threshold that separates democracy from other forms of government is that in democratic regimes those who lose must recognize defeat (particularly if they are the incumbents, since they must give up power). Mexican politicians have yet to show that they can uphold this aspect of democratic practice. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has challenged the outcome emerging from the official count by the IFE, the independent Federal Electoral Institute overseeing the elections. His opponent, Felipe Calderón, has noted correctly that there is no longer uncertainty as to the official number of votes counted. Mexico counts with processes that must now be followed in order to settle the controversies or irregularities that might have existed in the election. The Electoral Court in Mexico has accumulated more than a decade of experience in settling such cases. The IFE and the Electoral Court are the product of two decades of courageous struggles by democrats, including thousands of activists in the ranks of both the PRD and the PAN, committed to creating an independent institution that guarantees free and fair elections. Whatever the eventual outcome of the election as decided by the Electoral Court, Mexican politics will remain divisive. But there are reasons to believe that the country is less polarized than what some have claimed, and that Mexican democracy will remain strengthened from this ordeal.
Useful sites on the election: Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE). Official site of the Electoral Institute with a wealth of information. Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación. Electoral Court which will decide the outcome of the election. Mexico Election Panel Study 2006. Panel study of the evolution of the campaign. Includes link to the 2000 panel data, as well as analysis. CIDAC. Most comprehensive electoral dataset and other useful information (poll of polls, articles, bulletin). Lupa Ciudadana by Letras Libres. Keeps track of campaign promises, speeches and declarations. Moniteoreo de Programas Sociales on Contextos Electorales (FUNDAR). An in-depth study of the electoral effects of social spending, including survey data and municipal level analysis. Anomalías en el PREP by Luis Mochán. A site devoted to analyzing the PREP and CD results, detecting anomalies that require some explanation. The analysis is driven by explorations of the vote distributions, with little input from the social sciences in terms of potential hypotheses that might account for the anomalies. Wiki de Cazamapaches by Raymond Hall. Similar to the previous site, but far more partisan in its assumption that the election was tainted by fraud. |
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