Poverty, Democracy and Social Transfers in Mexico
2006 Mexican Elections Analysis
Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Federico Estévez and Beatriz Magaloni
This book analyses the political economy of social assistance programs in Mexico from 1989 until 2006. This period has witnessed impressive transformations. On the one hand, the long-lasting rule of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) came to an end in 2000 and Mexico went through a transition to democracy that entailed a fundamental change in the workings of the basic institutional apparatus. On the other hand, the three administrations during this period dramatically changed the existing social assistance programs designed to improve the well-being of the poor and mobilize their electoral support. There has been an important reduction of extreme poverty during the last decade. However, social programs continue to be criticized for their presumed manipulation by politicians seeking to obtain electoral support. This book analyses the effectiveness of the various social assistance programs in Mexico and the political logic driving them.
A statement on the book's contents, scope and original contribution can be accessed here. The chapters below are undergoing revision, but we will be updating the page, posting the latest available versions. Please contact us if you want to cite the work.
Note that the embedded maps in the chapters are best seen in color.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. The Struggle Against Poverty
Chapter 2. Geography, Poverty and Method
Chapter 3. Strategies of Electoral Investment
Chapter 4. Political Manipulation of Social Transfers
Chapter 5. From Handouts to Entitlements
Chapter 6. The Electoral Payoffs of Anti-Poverty Programs
Chapter 7. Improving Living Conditions: The Effects of Social Programs on Public Good Provision
Chapter 8. Saving Lives: Social Programs and Infant Mortality Rates
Conclusion Not yet
You can also access the full book manuscript as PDF File.
Dataset
We are not yet releasing the dataset which we have built over the past 7 years, on which the analysis of the book is based. The data files ecompass political, social, demographic, economic and public expenditure information at the municipal level from 1989-2006, bringing together information from INEGI, IFE, CIDAC, CONAPO and SEDESOL, among other sources. Please contact us if you want to be notified when the data becomes available, once the book is revised and accepted for publication.
GIS Maps
Infant mortality rates at the municipal level (2000)
The selected maps below show some spatial patterns, which are analyzed in detail in the book.
Map 1. Poverty: Number of individuals below the nutritional headcount ratio (2002)
Map 2. Clientelism: Per capita allocation of private goods by Pronasol (1989-1994)
Map 3. Public Goods: Change in provision of water, electricity and sewerage (1990-2000)
Map 4. Welfare: Change in infant mortality rates (1990-2000)
Map 5. Entitlements: Conditional cash transfers as measured by Progresa coverage (2000)
Map 6. Core Voters: stable PRI municipal support (alpha coefficient) (1970-1988)
Map 7. Geographic instrument: Distance of municipal centroid to railroad tracks
Additional material:
The infamous "roqueseñal" discussed in chapter 5. PRI legislator Humberto Roque Villanueva celebrates successfully passing of bill increasing the Value Added Tax rate in 1995.
Documentation of PRI vote buying in the 1992 election in Jiquilpan, Michoacán. From the Manchester ERA project.