the 6th Workshop on Internet & Network Economics

Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice

Rakesh Vohra

Abstract:

Suppose one is asked to forecast the probability of rain on successive days. How should one assess the accuracy of the forecast? If one forecasts a 25% chance of rain and it rains, was the forecast in error? ``Those who claim for themselves to judge the truth are bound to possess a criterion of truth.''
Sextus Empiricus