China
Istvan Simon sends this from Nanning,
China, where he is residing temporarily. He is a Stanford graduate, ( Ph.D 1972,
Computer Science) and a faculty member at California State University, Hayward.
Nanning is the capital of Kwangsi Chuang Autonomous Region, which borders the
northern bulge of Vietnam, where Hanoi is located.
1. On China as the country of the future: There is no doubt that China is going
to become a major economic power, (it already is, if one considers aggregate
measures like GNP, or consumption of resources.) China is an exciting place to
be right now. I compared it to what it must have been in the United States in
1849, when gold was discovered in California. China is like that today. Just on
the verge of becoming the most powerful Nation on Earth, like the United States
was in 1849.
In Nanning one can see the emergence of a major economic power, right in front
of one's eyes. Everywhere one sees signs of an emerging Consumer Society. Goods
in stores are abundant, cheap by Western standards, and excellent quality.
Western goods are available too, including luxury items like Montblanc pens for
example, for around $300.00. One wonders who are wealthy enough in China to buy
such items, but their availability must mean that there are also consumers for
such goods. There is also plenty of counterfeit merchandise being sold. Often
the counterfeit is sold as counterfeit, that is there is no pretense that it is
the real thing, e.g. counterfeit Rolex watches available
at very low cost. But sometimes one finds counterfeit western articles
being sold at high cost, as if they were legitimate.
My Internet service at the apartment that I am renting in Nanning is better and
much cheaper than what's available in the United States. I have got a
connection to a fiber optic network, maybe 100 yards from the building
where I live. It costs $5.00 per month. Of course $5.00 for an average
Chinese is more expensive (relative to local wages) than $50.00 in the United
States, but nonetheless this is very impressive.
2. Political implications.
I have read in WAIS a prediction that China's success will lead to authoritarian
governments elsewhere. While this may be so, and may indeed happen, I
would like to predict that the opposite will happen in China itself. There is
much more political freedom today than just a few years ago. Open dissent is
still not tolerated, but people will discuss Chinese affairs openly without
fear, and they will not be bothered, unless they try to criticize the government
publicly. In China today communism is greatly changed, to the point where
it has just the faintest resemblance to the outrageous communist regimes of the
20-th Century, a disaster everywhere, including China. The current regime in
China is still authoritarian, but much less so than it used to be, and
communism was all but abandoned in the Chinese economy, which explains it's
success. The business of China today is business, not politics, and they are
doing an excellent job at it. I believe that this model will lead within maybe
20 years to a complete Western - style multiparty democracy. The new
generation of young Chinese who are now young adults or growing up are ready for
it, and will certainly adopt it.
3. Healthcare. I read in WAIS dire views on the Chinese Healthcare system. It
may be that such is the case in rural China, but it does not reflect at all what
happens in cities like Nanning. The Chinese healthcare system in Nanning is
simply much better than what is available in the United States. It is worthy of
note that Nanning hospitals are not as good as what can be found in large cities
like Beijing and Shanghai. Nonetheless Chinese healthcare in Nanning is
excellent. Chinese healthcare is widely and easily available in Nanning.
Every few hundred yards one finds a clinic or a hospital. It is
cheap, and extremely effective. Chinese doctors appear to be highly competent,
both in western medicine and in traditional Chinese medicine, and the
combination of the best of both is far superior than what is available in the
United States. A few days after I arrived here I fell ill with a 102 degree
fever and a viral upper respiratory infection. I was taken to the
emergency room of the local University Hospital. I was admitted to be seen by a
doctor, paying 3 yuen,less than $0.40 like every Chinese. The Hospital was
teeming with other people also seeking medical care. No one asked for an
insurance card, not even my passport.On needs no document at all to be seen by a
doctor and receive medical care. All one needs, is to be a human being in
need of medical care, and it will be provided. A remarkable feat, for a country
as poor as China still is, compared to the advanced Western Societies.
I waited for my turn to see the doctor for about an hour and a half. They go
strictly by order of admission. When my turn came up, I was examined by a young
resident doctor. She examined me, and prescribed appropriate medication.
The medicine to be administered was purchased at a very low price at the
Hospital. It cost maybe a few dollars, less than a small bottle of aspirin at
Longs.It was to be administered intravenously, and so it was, in a large complex
of several large rooms, where dozens of other people were also being treated
similarly. I received the medication, and in about another hour I went
home. I felt cured almost instantly, an absolutely remarkable fact given the
condition that I had.
I went to another clinic the next morning, which is much less crowded, was seen
by another very competent doctor there in less than 5 minutes, and given the
same treatment again, to avoid the fever returning.
With two such treatments (and continuing taking the medication orally for the
next week or so), the Chinese doctors had cured me of a virulent flu in less
than 24 hours. Since then I have been treated for some minor problems, every
time with quick, equally effective treatment. While the above is obviously not a
comprehensive report on the Chinese healthcare system, it is clear from it that
the Chinese have much to teach us about how to deliver very high quality medical
care to millions of people at very low cost.
4. Energy
It is unfortunate that Energy does not receive more attention at your forum,
because it surely is the most important issue for the World today. I have seen a
few articles on wind energy, and tidal energy, but a remarkable absence on the
most important source of renewable energy, that is Solar energy. Solar energy is
the way of the future, not wind or other secondary forms. Wind energy is
discussed in your forum because right now it is the only one econnomically
competitive with fossil fuels. But that is looking at the issue the wrong
way, in my opinion. Solar energy is not currently competitive for the generation
of electricity, but all it will take to make it competitive is to adopt it large
scale, where economic gains of production on a massive scale would rapidly bring
down it's cost. Once introduced on a large scale, Solar energy's advantages will
quickly overcome everything else, and indeed the country that has the vision and
courage of investing in this technology on a large scale, will easily become the
greatest power on Earth.
I believe that there are only two countries in the World that could bring this
about in a short time: China and the United States. Neither seems to have
currently the leadership and vision to do so, the greatest obstacle to getting
there from where we are right now. The advantages of Solar energy are obvious.
It's adoption would lead to a new Economy, with very far reaching
consequences. Solar energy will be produced locally in a distributed network.
This has immediate and large advantages, as much less transmission capacity will
be needed, leading to huge savings, and also less losses in transmission,
another significant saving. When the Sun is hottest, energy demand increases, as
people turn on their air conditioners. But it is also when most Solar energy is
produced. Thus production and demand are naturally matched. Solar energy is
non-polluting, thus leading to huge savings in Healthcare costs. Solar energy
can be used to produce Hydrogen from water. The oxygen so produced can be
released into the air, and the hydrogen sold in fuel cells, to be burned
in cars, with appropriate hydrogen-fueled engines. When the hydrogen is burned
in cars, the oxygen which was released into the air is reused, and water and
energy is produced, thus completing another natural cycle: water +
electrical energy -> H2 + O2 -> O2 in air, H2 in fuel cells ->
cars burn H2 using H2 and O2 from air -> water + energy. zero emissions, zero
pollution, renewable, reusable energy. No CO2, no global warming.
Once these technologies are adopted on a massive scale, the political
implications are in turn very far-reaching. The middle East will disappear as a
focus of constant tension, as the Arab countries and OPEC would totally lose
their power. Petroleum producing countries would have to learn to produce
wealth by working like the rest of us, rather than relying on a natural but
non-renewable resource essential for the modern World. Terrorists would be
quickly vanquished, as the wealth that currently supports them would
disappear".
RH: This optimistic report illustrates how the vision of a country depends on
the observer. The WAIS reports on China to which Istvan refers came from
an American who never said one nice thing about China. He left China and
WAIS, being unable to tolerate differences of opinion, which are the law in
WAISdom. Does Istvan go to the other extreme? By coincidence, The
Economist (8/21-27/04) features a section on "China's growing pains.
Special reports on pollution and health care".The report on health care is
much less glowing than that sent by Istvan. The cover shows a
dragon belching forth smoke. I would like to know what Istvan thinks of
the issue. He can see it on line,or I will be happy if he wishes to send
my copy to Hayward, where he will find it on his return. One comment regarding
solar energy. Middle East oil may run out, but the Arab world could be a primary
source of solar energy. OPEC may be succeeded by OSEEC: Organization of Solar
Energy Exporting Countries,
Hank Levin writes: "I just returned from China last night and come out on
the optimistic side, as does Istvan Simon. I have been to China almost
every year since 1988 and have spent periods as long as two months there.
Last week I was an invited member of the Beijing Forum, a new forum that will be
held periodically to bring about 400 people from around the world to present
their work and discuss issues, divided into 14 separate disciplines and
sub-forums. One of the great benefits for me was the opportunity to
discuss the issues that Istvan Simon refers to with Chinese colleagues. I
also have a Guest Professor appointment at Peking University, and went to a
conference there.
At the moment, things look very open and moving further in democratic directions
and towards an open economy. There is also immense energy and optimism for
those with education, and an expansion of universities so that China has more
enrollees in higher education than the U.S. and will have at least 50 percent
more by 2010.
Of course, there are all kinds of issues that could create serious obstacles and
bottlenecks over the short and medium run, such as the retrenchment of openness
as happened in 1989. We spent the summer of 1988 hearing students and
faculty at Peking University revel in their new-found democracy and casting
sharps criticisms on their government. Nine months later the tanks were
rolling into the Square. China still lacks the legal structure and legal
protections of a full-fledged democracy. A change in leadership is all
that it takes to get a change in tolerance for dissent.
However, on the basis of continual contacts and work with Chinese scholars over
the last 16 years, I believe that the optimistic scenario is correct for the
long run--with occasionally, severe hiccups in the short run".
Siegfried Ramler writes: "Following up
on the recent China postings, I attach for your interest my report on an
initiative entitled "Teaching about China and the United States" under
the sponsorship of the East-West Center, China's Ministry of Education, and
Peking University. The report is far too long for the WAIS network, but
may be of interest to you. The past summer's dialogues and joint experiences
with Chinese and US scholars who teach and conduct research foster opportunities
for cooperation and improved understanding. As you will note, we had full
access to policy level institutions, both in Beijing and in Washington, as well
as opportunities for explorations of regions outside of the capitals, i.e. Xian
and Shanghai in China, as well as Ohio and Hawaii in the United States.
The report reflects the remarkable transformation of China, including a
far more open ambiance and life style, the fruits of a market economy, and
a more harmonious and inclusive approach to governance and social services.
It endorses the observations expresses in the postings".