TURKEY and the EU

Tim Brown forwards the following comments on Turkey from a well informed observer of that country's current situation:."It is a great debate. In fact, it is the "Eastern Question" continued. It is also the Sick Man of Europe - same interconnected debate, really. What is missing here is that the heirs of Attaturk, and especially the Generals, are not really sure they want to join the EU. They want to be western and be accepted in the European club(s) - WTO/NATO/EU - yes, but to actually undertake all the reforms entaiIed in joining the EU may well radically alter their self-identity, culture and society to the point of destroying it. So there are many Turks who want to undertake just about all the reforms -- changes in law, regulations, transparency, etc. - that would be needed in preparation for EU candidacy, but don't actually want to join the club and be forced to submit to the dictates of Brussels, see their military lose its "guarantor of the Attaturk revolution" status, or be forced to admit to the reality of Turkey's many minorities and treat them with what they would term defferential consideration.

The argument is that it was the centrifugal forces of the millets that tore the Ottoman Empire apart - and Attaturk decreed that from then on, everyone was Turkish - no minorities. Its an even more strict interpretation than the Mexican notion that everyone is Mexican. Some argue that the Islamists (and they might include the new government in this group) are pushing hard for EU membership because its the one platform they can use legally and popularly to "de-fang" the military. Similarly, many Euro-Turks support EU membership because they see it as a bulwark against the Islamists. They can't both be right. Ultimately, its a question of process over goals. Nearly all sides want to be accepted by Europe - or at least the West. Nearly all sides see the benefit of the reforms and changes needed for the EU candidacy process.Will they ultimately take the plunge and join? It'll take years for them to be in that position, if the EU is willing to consider letting them in. But after such a long process, will the benefits of joining the club be so enticing? There are already clear signs that the EU's big money for new but poorer members will not be available to the present group of candidates how much will the EU be willing to cough up for Turkey in 5, 10 or 15 years time? We can only hope that the process will develop enough momentum that they will cross the threshold to the goal of EU membership itself. We all want and need Turkey firmly tied to the West".

Ronald Hilton - 1/6/03