PERU: Terrorism

Scott Palmer, once a pillar of Bolivar House and now a well-known Peru specialist, knows the Andes well. He surmises:

"Peru will not sink into a new spate of terrorist/guerrilla activity, While Shining Path lives on, it is a shadow of its former self and must confront the virtual national inoculation against it that occurred largely as a result of its excesses in the late 1980s and early 1990s. While it continues to recruit, claiming it is a kinder and gentler movement now, few believe them. It is capable of only minor actions in remote areas, and is unlikely to be able to advance beyond that limited military capacity.

What is more likely to happen in Peru than renewed terrorism, in my judgment, is a progressive decomposition of the fragile political alliance that now governs the country and a return to the always unpredictable no-party politics of desgobierno. Not a happy prospect, to be sure, but likely to stay within the bounds of formal but far from consolidated democracy."

Ronald Hilton - 10/17/01