The Presidential Election

     Our Chilean Chile expert Carlos López sends this assessment of the Chilean presidential election. It illustrates one of the most tricky problems of democracy, namely how to conduct an election. Close results can lead to charges of fraud, and surprises are always possible. The recent presidential election in Uruguay disappointed the hopeful leftist Broad Front. Carlos says:
     The virtual tie between Lagos and Lavin presents some interesting alternatives to Chileans. The odd situation of the Communists, whose candidate Gladys Marin, won a little over 3% of the total vote--she expected a 7%--puts Lagos in a very difficult situation. With less than 1% separating the two candidates, Lagos needs all the votes he can get. But Gladys Marin says she will not tell her supporters to vote for Lagos, unless they talk. Any talk, much less agreement with the Communists, will cost Lagos at least, 10% of the vote. Many Christian Democrats fear his ties with the Left. His best bet is to remain away from Marin, not to talk, not negotiate for any votes and hope that those who voted Communist will support him on the January 16 run-off. Lavin on the other hand, received strong vote from the women. In Chile women and men vote separately, so that the feminine vote can easily be identified. Lagos fired his campaign manager. Genaro Arriagada who resigned as Ambassador to Washington to head the Lagos campaign. He is not a happy camper. Of course, neither is Lagos, who has been replaced Arriagada with Soledad Alvear, a very popular Minister of Justice under the current administration. Lagos must present a centrist position if he wants to keep that 47+% of the vote. Any hint that he might deal with the extreme left will cause him to lose votes from the center. So, ¿quién ganara? Hard to tell at this time, but Lagos may risk it.

Ronald Hilton - 12/17/99