The Future of Afghanistan

The Foreign Policy Research Institute has posted an excellent piece by Michael Noonan entitled "Geography and the centers of Taliban gravity". It led me to think about two comparisons with Afghanistan and about the future of that country. The human geography--the division into tribes, each one of which must be appeased--reminds one incredibly of the US, where attempts to appease all the ethnic groups are a basic fact of political life. The physical geography--surrounded by nations all of which have a stake in the country--reminds one of the so-called Lowlands, once known as "the cockpit of Europe". It was where the major powers of the area fought things out, and the Netherlands and Belgium maintained their independence because no power wanted another to control it. This very centric position has transformed the cockpit of Europe into the hub of Europe. Afghanistan is at present the cockpit of Asia, but it may well become the hub of Asia thanks to its central position. A similar observation may be made in South America about Bolivia, fought over by Peru, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. Today it is the poorest South American country. It may in due achieve the political and economic significance of Belgium and Holland. Incredible? Who knows. Investors with a very long-term view might consider Afghanistan and Bolivia. Cochabamba as the Brussels of South America? It has a much better climate.

Ronald Hilton - 11/6/01