Afghanistan

Afghanistan Situation

Jon Kofas writes: "A report (6/12/04) noted that U.S. forces have killed more than 80 Taliban guerrilla fighters in southern Afghanistan. Pakistan's army has also been engaged in fierce fighting along the northwest border, killing at least 63 al-Qaeda fighters. Amid increased guerrilla attacks, the U.S. has tried to forge links with local Afghan leaders by providing reconstruction aid ($2.3 billion per year US aid proposal), while the UN has registered 10 million people to vote. Meanwhile, the war lords remain very powerful and Afghanistan is more decntralized now than it was under the tyrannical Taliban, and there is a sharp rise in violence as well as a tremendous rise in the opium and heroin trade, making the country's the world's largest producer of these drugs. According to Robert Weiner, former spokeperson for the Office of National Drug Policy, and Jeffrey Buchanan, Johns Hopkins University, the drug problem in Afghanistan is analogous to the Iraqi prison scandal and a major setback for U.S. policy. Weiner and Buchanan correctly point out that the U.S. war on Afghanistan's drug trade needs a plan similar to the one in Colombia.

In my view the drug trade is symptomatic of a policy that has failed to:
a) stabilize and make the country secure for its inhabitants after the war (perhaps an impossible task given the country's long history of successfully fighting against invaders)
b) combat war lordism, which is about as bad as the Taliban (perhaps an impossible task, given the fact that war lords are willing allies whose cooperation the U.S. needs)
c) provide sufficient resources for reconstruction and development so that farmers would not grow the puppy (perhaps an impossible task, given that puppy production yields 100 times higher profits than any other crop)
d) engender legitimacy in the country by introducing an international Muslim-led group, rather than dominant U.S.-NATO presence that is deeply resented (perhaps an impossible task given the factionalism/tribalism within the country and the deep suspicions about Pakistan and the Gulf states as U.S. puppets)

In short, I think that the situation for the people of Afghanistan is hopeless. But I disagree with Weiner and Buchanan that U.S. policy has failed, or that a plan like the one in Colombia will work. First, the drug trade/guerrilla activity in Colombia has not stopped, and the jury is still out on how effective the U.S. campaign to help presidents Andres Pastrana and Alvaro Uribe has been. Second, the U.S. has already accomplished its geopolitical goal in Afghanistan. By removing the Taliban, having al-Qaeda on the run, and establishing military operations to determine the balance of power in the Middle East and Central Asia, the U.S. for the short term can claim victory. The question is whether this will be effective for very long, and what does this say about how the situation in Iraq will evolve two-three years from now?"

RH: Russia's Putin is reportedly religious and wears a cross under his shirt. He has established a kind of religious relationship with Bush. Against the advice of his generals, he agreed to the US establishing military bases in former Soviet republics. If they survive, these bases give the US a rear defense in Afghanistan.

Jon Kofas writes: "A report (6/12/04) noted that U.S. forces have killed more than 80 Taliban guerrilla fighters in southern Afghanistan. Pakistan's army has also been engaged in fierce fighting along the northwest border, killing at least 63 al-Qaeda fighters. Amid increased guerrilla attacks, the U.S. has tried to forge links with local Afghan leaders by providing reconstruction aid ($2.3 billion per year US aid proposal), while the UN has registered 10 million people to vote. Meanwhile, the war lords remain very powerful and Afghanistan is more decntralized now than it was under the tyrannical Taliban, and there is a sharp rise in violence as well as a tremendous rise in the opium and heroin trade, making the country's the world's largest producer of these drugs. According to Robert Weiner, former spokeperson for the Office of National Drug Policy, and Jeffrey Buchanan, Johns Hopkins University, the drug problem in Afghanistan is analogous to the Iraqi prison scandal and a major setback for U.S. policy. Weiner and Buchanan correctly point out that the U.S. war on Afghanistan's drug trade needs a plan similar to the one in Colombia.

In my view the drug trade is symptomatic of a policy that has failed to:
a) stabilize and make the country secure for its inhabitants after the war (perhaps an impossible task given the country's long history of successfully fighting against invaders)
b) combat war lordism, which is about as bad as the Taliban (perhaps an impossible task, given the fact that war lords are willing allies whose cooperation the U.S. needs)
c) provide sufficient resources for reconstruction and development so that farmers would not grow the puppy (perhaps an impossible task, given that puppy production yields 100 times higher profits than any other crop)
d) engender legitimacy in the country by introducing an international Muslim-led group, rather than dominant U.S.-NATO presence that is deeply resented (perhaps an impossible task given the factionalism/tribalism within the country and the deep suspicions about Pakistan and the Gulf states as U.S. puppets)

In short, I think that the situation for the people of Afghanistan is hopeless. But I disagree with Weiner and Buchanan that U.S. policy has failed, or that a plan like the one in Colombia will work. First, the drug trade/guerrilla activity in Colombia has not stopped, and the jury is still out on how effective the U.S. campaign to help presidents Andres Pastrana and Alvaro Uribe has been. Second, the U.S. has already accomplished its geopolitical goal in Afghanistan. By removing the Taliban, having al-Qaeda on the run, and establishing military operations to determine the balance of power in the Middle East and Central Asia, the U.S. for the short term can claim victory. The question is whether this will be effective for very long, and what does this say about how the situation in Iraq will evolve two-three years from now?"

RH: Russia's Putin is reportedly religious and wears a cross under his shirt. He has established a kind of religious relationship with Bush. Against the advice of his generals, he agreed to the US establishing military bases in former Soviet republics. If they survive, these bases give the US a rear defense in Afghanistan.

 

Ronald Hilton -


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