Stanford Physics Graduate Wins Millions at Poker
by Julian Hong
Stanford Ph.D. alumnus Michael Binger is, by training, a quantum field theory physicist, specializing in strong interactions of the basic constituents of matter. Recently, however, he has used physics in an entirely different way to win more than $4 million at the 2006 World Series of Poker (WSOP). While some might consider Binger's third place win a stroke of luck, math strategies and probability calculations helped him increase the odds of winning.
The World Series of Poker
Currently, the annually-held WSOP is the most prestigious and highly covered poker tournament in the world. This yearÕs tournament, spanning from July 28 to August 10, was the largest in history, with 8,773 participants, much larger than the first group of seven when WSOP debuted in 1969. To play, contestants must afford the $10,000 buy-in or qualify through the WSOP satellite events.
The main event of the WSOP is a multi-day tournament where competitors play a version of poker called Texas Hold 'Em. In this game, players are each dealt two ÒHold CardsÓ. Upon the deal, they can choose to fold (drop out of the game), raise the bet, or check the bet (bet the same amount as the previous bet). Three community cards called the ÒFlopÓ are then dealt, followed by a series of betting, and the drawing of a community card called the ÒTurnÓ or ÒFourth StreetÓ. After an additional round of betting, the final community card called the ÒRiverÓ or ÒFifth StreetÓ is dealt. Final bets are placed before the hands are revealed. The player with the best poker hand wins. At any time during the game, a player can also go Òall-inÓ and bet their entire chip stack. The result is a dramatic game where one hand can change the gameÕs direction quickly.
Calculating Poker Hand Probabilities
Since the players play for the best hand around the table in poker, strategically handling the probabilities of different cards is critical - there is even media coverage of the real-time probability for each player wining the hand. This is particularly noticeable when players go all-in and call for the cards necessary to win the hand.
For the most part, probabilities can be easily computed during play. Hands are generally formed in one of two ways: either matching up multiple occurrences of one card or lining up cards of the same suit (flush) or sequence (straight). The four occurrences of each card (one for each suit) in the deck helps players calculate the probability that desired cards may show up in the community cards. The player considers these probabilities when his cards are dealt initially and when the community cards are dealt. For example, a starting pair has a strong advantage against two unpaired cards of lower number (~5:1) but is nearly a coin toss against two unpaired cards of higher number (1.2:1). A stronger hand generally has one or more of: higher number, same suit, same number, sequential order. The strength of the hand is also relative to the number of players in the game. Weaker hands are relatively stronger when playing Òheads-upÓ (against one opponent) than against multiple opponents, since the probability of a strong hand is increased by more players receiving cards.
Calculating the probabilities of opponents' hands is also critical; probabilities are modified depending on betting behavior. Patterns in betting can be signs of the strength of an opponentÕs hand and can help modify the expected probability of different hands. However, high betting does not necessarily signify a strong poker hand; instead, a player with a weak hand could be trying to bluff his opponents into thinking his hand is strong. The game is not only about handling the predictable properties of the game, but psychological factors as well.
Luck and Strategy leads to Success
This year, a record 12 players became millionaires, including StanfordÕs own Binger who managed to place third in the contest with hefty competition from poker professionals. Binger, who supplemented his graduate stipend through playing poker tournaments, was on top of the leader-board for a good portion of the tournament. Confident of his play, the Atherton resident entered the tournament hoping to win a coveted World Series bracelet and the cash prize of $12 million.
ÒI submitted my thesis in April, and basically from that time onward, I was refocusing on poker and making sure that by the time the World Series started, I was 100 percent,Ó Binger commented. ÒI felt like I was really on the verge of having a big win.Ó
Binger acknowledges that he caught big hands at the right times. One of these hands started with a pair of queens, and netted a pot worth $1.5 million. On day one, he also cashed in on a 9-10-J-Q-K straight on the flop, giving him $50,000 - the chip lead at his table - and the momentum that stayed with him the remainder of the tournament.
BingerÕs present plans are to continue competing in large poker tournaments while deciding which direction to take his research, such as continuing theoretical physics or turning to the field of renewable energy. Whatever he decides, he is likely to win big.