October 16, 2004
Hispanic Vote in Florida: Neither a Bloc Nor a Lock
By ABBY GOODNOUGH
MIAMI, Oct. 16 - Defining the Hispanic vote in Florida used to be easy: Cuban immigrants, Republican to the last. But just try boiling it down this election season.
A huge influx of Puerto Ricans, Mexicans and people from Central and South America has diluted the political clout of Cubans, loosening the Republican lock on the Hispanic vote. The state has an estimated 650,000 Puerto Ricans, for example, a group that usually leans Democratic, up from 481,000 in 2000.
Colombians, Puerto Ricans and Dominicans are leaning toward Senator John Kerry, polls suggest, though many have registered as independents and the Democrats do not consider their vote a sure thing. Nicaraguans embrace President Bush, and Cubans, while still overwhelmingly Republican, may throw some support to the Democrats for a change.
Little wonder, then, that Florida's 3.2 million Hispanic residents - the state's largest minority group, tens of thousands of whom will be first-time voters next month - are among the most coveted voters in the nation this year.
"The message for both parties is, these people can go either way and you've got to work it," said Jorge Mursuli, national director of Mi Familia Vota, a voter registration group that signed up 73,000 Hispanic voters here this year, 40 percent as independents.
Both presidential candidates are feverishly courting the Florida vote as the campaign comes down to the wire - Mr. Bush held three rallies here Saturday and will return Monday and Tuesday, while Mr. Kerry is to campaign in Florida on Sunday and Monday.
Republicans and Democrats have scoured the state to find new citizens, focusing on South Florida, where Central and South Americans have joined the large Cuban contingent, and Central Florida, home to a fast-growing Puerto Rican population. Even finding these potential voters is a challenge, strategists say, because many now scatter through suburbs instead of clustering in urban neighborhoods like Little Havana in Miami.
And unlike blacks, who vote more often as a bloc, Hispanics bring a patchwork of priorities to the electoral table. Cubans care deeply about how Washington deals with Fidel Castro - though even they cannot be defined singularly this year, as many newer arrivals are angry about Mr. Bush's Cuba policy. Puerto Ricans want to know a candidate's stance on whether their homeland should become a state. Racial discrimination is a big issue for Hispanics in Central Florida, Mr. Mursuli said, while those in South Florida, whose Latino community is larger and more established, do not experience it as much.
Both parties believe Mr. Bush will win the majority of Hispanic votes in Florida, if only because the Cuban population remains so large - about 450,000 registered voters, compared with about 200,000 for the second-biggest group, Puerto Ricans. But Democratic strategists say their party is pushing for Mr. Kerry to win perhaps 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, potentially a big enough increase over the roughly 34 percent that Al Gore claimed in 2000 to assure a Democratic victory here.
Both campaigns consider Puerto Ricans particularly up for grabs because so many are newly registered and have not formed party loyalties. They supported Mr. Gore in the 2000 presidential election, but went for Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican, in his 2002 re-election bid. The conventional wisdom is that the governor appealed to Hispanics more than Bill McBride, his little-known Democratic opponent, because he constantly visited their neighborhoods, speaking fluent Spanish and presenting himself as their friend.
Though Jeb Bush has not done much stumping for his brother, the president, in Hispanic communities - or anywhere, for that matter, because the four hurricanes that devastated large swaths of the state have preoccupied him this campaign season - he made several visits to Puerto Rican communities that were hard hit by the storms, promising financial and emotional support.
And this year, President Bush has another Spanish-speaking surrogate courting Florida Hispanics: Mel Martinez, a Cuban-American who is Mr. Bush's former housing secretary and the Republican candidate in the race for the seat of Senator Bob Graham, a Democrat who is retiring.
On Friday, the Bush-Cheney campaign said that Al Cardenas, a Cuban-American and former Florida Republican Party chairman, would join Jeb Bush as a co-chairman of the president's campaign here.
"He wanted to come in and help close the deal, especially as it relates to Hispanics," said Alberto Martinez, a spokesman for the Bush campaign here.
"The presence of Jeb Bush and Martinez will make the president a very tough competitor when it comes to fighting for that Central Florida vote," said Sergio Bendixen, a Democratic pollster in Miami. "The Democrats are fighting there with issues, without any personalities. The Republicans are fighting with personalities, with very few issues."
The Bush campaign has run 10 television advertisements in Spanish, some touching on issues like health care and education but others simply painting Mr. Bush as a kindred spirit to Latinos. One plays a song describing him as "someone who knows my problems, my culture," adding, "I'm with Bush because he knows my family."
Mr. Kerry has run fewer advertisements in Spanish, but the New Democratic Network, a Democratic advocacy group, has filled in the gap. Among its anti-Republican advertisements are two aimed at Cuban voters, many of whom have condemned a new policy limiting them to one trip home every three years and restricting cash transfers and gift packages to Cuba.
In one New Democratic Network ad, a Cuban-American woman asks: "How long will they keep brainwashing us? Cuba's problem is something that we, the Cubans, need to resolve. And in the meantime, what are the Republicans doing to solve the problems we have here?"
Still, even the most optimistic Democrats predict that only a small fraction of Cuban voters will switch allegiances in November, especially because Mr. Martinez is on the Republican ballot. In a poll last month for the New Democratic Network, Mr. Bendixen found that 72 percent of Cuban voters supported Bush, compared with 19 percent for Mr. Kerry and 9 percent either undecided or for Ralph Nader.
The same poll, of 800 Hispanic voters in Florida, had 35 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics supporting Mr. Bush, 59 percent Mr. Kerry and 6 percent undecided or supporting Mr. Nader.
A new poll of 800 Florida Hispanics by The Washington Post, Univision and the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute found Mr. Bush leading Mr. Kerry by 61 percent to 32 percent. Mr. Bush drew 81 percent of the Cuban vote, while Mr. Kerry won 42 percent of the Puerto Rican vote and 48 percent of Hispanics who were not Cuban or Puerto Rican.
Random interviews in Miami on Friday demonstrated just how disparate the Hispanic electorate can be. Belkys Gomez, a Cuban-American who works in billing at the University of Miami, said she was still undecided but would probably vote for Mr. Bush.
"The only thing that throws me towards Bush is that I know him," Ms. Gomez, 40, said. "We have a saying in Spanish that says something like 'A bad well known is better than a bad to be known.' No one really knows who Kerry is."
Jose Lugo, a funeral director who is Puerto Rican, said he strongly preferred Mr. Kerry. Of Mr. Bush, he said: "I don't like the way he is conducting the war. I was in the Army for seven years and I don't think he should have rushed into war."
Jeanine Escobar, a restaurant owner from Nicaragua, said she was absolutely for Mr. Bush. "He is against communism and I come from a country that knows communism," she said. "It's not that I dislike Kerry, but he doesn't have our same ideology."
Source: New York Times
Posted by State at 05:08 PM | Comments (1)
Undecided voters in Florida still cool to Bush, keeping state in play
Posted on Sat, Oct. 16, 2004
BY STEVEN THOMMA
Knight Ridder Newspapers
ORLANDO, Fla. - (KRT) - Michael Trimboli is the kind of voter who should already be committed to President Bush.
A contract administrator for the U.S. Army, Trimboli wouldn't think of voting for Democrat John Kerry, someone he dismisses as an elitist politician. Yet Trimboli is mad about the way Bush has managed the Iraq war, disappointed that Bush won't admit mistakes there and worried he therefore won't correct them.
"That's costing lives," said Trimboli.
He might end up voting for Bush anyway, but Trimboli has such doubts that he just might not vote for a presidential candidate on Nov. 2, election day.
One of the few voters still undecided or uncommitted in the state, Trimboli's reservations about Bush help explain why the president is fighting to win the biggest state still up for grabs a little more than two weeks before election day. He campaigned in Florida on Saturday, his 12th visit since spring.
Despite Bush's razor thin victory here in 2000, he arguably should be farther ahead this time. Consider:
_The state has trended more Republican since then, re-electing Jeb Bush as governor in 2002 by a comfortable margin.
_Voters gave both Bush brothers high marks for their quick and personal response to four hurricanes; 84 percent said Gov. Bush did an excellent or good job and 69 percent said President Bush did an excellent or good job.
_Military issues and national security dominate the campaign now, which should give Bush an edge, particularly among military families in northern Florida.
_The Democratic ticket does not have a Jewish running mate to boost turnout among Jewish retirees along the Southeast Florida coast. At the same time, the Republican ticket toppled Saddam Hussein, who had used cash to reward anti-Israeli terrorism.
"The landscape is better for Bush this time," said independent Florida-based pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon.
He acknowledged that Kerry could benefit from some discontent among Cuban Americans over Bush-imposed travel restrictions to Cuba. "But that one angle for Kerry doesn't offset the other advantages that Bush has," Coker said.
But something is. Polls show the race in Florida a dead heat.
A key reason, judging by a focus group of uncommitted voters in Orlando conducted by Zogby International for Knight Ridder on Friday evening, is that undecided voters who lean toward Bush like his steadiness but also want some sign of flexibility to change things that are not going well, particularly in Iraq.
Kerry faces hurdles as well. Undecided voters who lean toward the Democrat also want change, particularly in the economy. But they either see Kerry as a Washington insider poorly equipped to change things, or haven't yet seen the detail to back Kerry's claim that he has plans for everything from Iraq to the economy.
The group of 9 uncommitted voters from the most heavily contested section of the state split evenly, with four leaning toward Bush, four leaning toward Kerry, and one leaning toward third party candidate Ralph Nader, who is on the ballot in Florida.
Reasonably well informed, most have been paying at least some attention to the campaign. All watched at least part of the recent debates. Their inability to commit stems not from ignorance of the candidates or issues but from being turned off by one side and not quite sold on the other.
Of those leaning toward Bush, Iraq was the most mentioned reason why they're still undecided, followed by federal budget deficits.
"I have a son who just turned 18 last week," said Trimboli, 52, of Orlando. "I don't mind him fighting for his country. But I don't want him to go fight and die in a war that is being mishandled like Vietnam ... Bush is very confused in the way he's handling the war and his reasoning behind it."
James Shoemaker, 41, a chemist from Orlando, also was leaning toward Bush but refused to commit to the Republican yet. He did not like Kerry, saying he thought Kerry's objection to developing nuclear tipped bunker busting bombs was `irresponsible."
But he really doesn't like the way Bush has continued to support tax cuts and spending increases in the face of soaring federal deficits. His choice, he said, is "between Bush and writing in a protest vote."
Jenny Chen, 22, a computer analyst from Orlando, was leaning toward Kerry. She thought the Iraq war was unjustified and Bush too stubborn to change course there. She might listen to Bush, she said, if he concentrated more on domestic issues such as the economy and health care.
She preferred Kerry on those issues, but still needed to hear more about what he would do and how he would pay for it. "He should tell us what his plan is for America instead of just saying, `I have a plan.' Be specific. He says he has a plan to cut middle class taxes. Well, tell us how much."
John Atchason, 23, a student from Orlando, said he turned away from Bush because he thought the president doesn't understand the Middle East. "For every terrorist we catch, there's ten more," he said.
But he hasn't warmed to Kerry, and wonders whether anyone will. "He overanalyzes; maybe that's why he changes his mind so much. He needs to loosen up and connect with people ... I'm undecided because I don't fully trust either candidate. I may vote for Nader as a protest vote."
Source: San Jose Mercury News
Posted by State at 05:04 PM | Comments (1)
Bush, Kerry Step Up War of Words in Ohio, Florida
Sat Oct 16, 2004 05:11 PM ET
By Peter Cooney
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush questioned Sen. John Kerry's fitness to lead and the Democrat said Bush had ignored the middle class as they took their close presidential race on Saturday to two crucial states.
With polls showing a virtually deadlocked contest just 17 days before the Nov. 2 election, Bush toured Florida where he called Kerry a political opportunist unfit to lead amid "great threats" to America.
He said Kerry's vote a year ago against a request for $87 billion to fund the Iraq war was at odds with his earlier vote to authorize the use of force.
"His contradictions call into question his credibility and his ability to lead our nation," said Bush, accompanied by his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, on a bus tour of the state that sent him to the White House in 2000 after a recount battle ultimately decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Kerry was in Ohio, another electoral battleground, where he ripped Bush's economic record. The Massachusetts senator has paid 20 visits this year to the closely contested state that went narrowly for Bush in 2000 but has lost 173,000 manufacturing jobs during his presidency.
"Mr. President, the millions of Americans who have lost jobs on your watch are not 'myths,' they are middle-class families -- and for four years, you've turned your back on them," Kerry told a town hall meeting.
His comments followed remarks this week by Treasury Secretary John Snow that "Claims like the one that Bush will be the first president to end a term with fewer jobs than when he started are nothing more than 'myths."'
Bush held a 4-point lead over Kerry among likely voters for the second consecutive day, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Polls published on Saturday by Time and Newsweek magazines showed the two candidates virtually deadlocked. Newsweek's poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday, showed Bush leading Kerry by 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Time's survey, conducted the same days, showed 48 percent support for Bush among likely voters, versus 46 percent for Kerry. Both polls had a 4-point margin of error.
WAR OF WORDS
Bush and Kerry have stepped up their war of words in recent days following their third and final presidential debate on Wednesday. Post-debate polls gave the edge to Kerry in all the debates, which helped narrow a lead Bush built in September after the Republican National Convention.
The two candidates have accused each other of being out of touch with reality on domestic issues like the economy and health care and on Iraq and the war on terror.
"At a time of great threats to our country, at a time of great challenges in the world, the commander in chief must stand on principle -- not the shifting sands of political convenience," Bush told a Florida rally on Saturday.
Kerry focused on pocketbook issues in Ohio but also criticized the handling of the war in Iraq and said Bush could have done more to avert a flu vaccine shortage caused by problems at a manufacturing plant in Britain.
"When it comes to reality, George Bush has a simple strategy: Ignore it, deny it, then try to hide it," Kerry said. "And when confronted with a mistake, try and explain things away."
Bush used his weekly radio address to attack Kerry as a liberal on taxes and social issues such as abortion and gay marriage.
"Now, he is promising over $2.2 trillion in new spending, and paying for it would require broad tax increases on small business and the middle class," the president said.
Kerry, who will campaign in Florida on Sunday and Monday, described Bush's comments as "scare tactics."
The Reuters/Zogby poll found 6 percent of voters still undecided in a race pollster John Zogby said was showing similarities to the disputed 2000 battle between Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
"This is reminding me more and more every day of 2000 -- with the lead changing every few days and no candidate able to put this away," he said.
Source: Reuters
Posted by State at 05:02 PM | Comments (1)
October 14, 2004
In '04 Florida, Lawsuits Begin Before Election
By ABBY GOODNOUGH
Published: October 14, 2004
MIAMI, Oct. 13 - Not a single ballot has been counted in the presidential election, yet Florida is already teeming with lawsuits charging the state and its county elections supervisors with voter disenfranchisement, a legal muddle likely to grow worse before Election Day.
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Posted by State at 12:06 AM | Comments (1)