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October 16, 2004
Undecided voters in Florida still cool to Bush, keeping state in play
Posted on Sat, Oct. 16, 2004
BY STEVEN THOMMA
Knight Ridder Newspapers
ORLANDO, Fla. - (KRT) - Michael Trimboli is the kind of voter who should already be committed to President Bush.
A contract administrator for the U.S. Army, Trimboli wouldn't think of voting for Democrat John Kerry, someone he dismisses as an elitist politician. Yet Trimboli is mad about the way Bush has managed the Iraq war, disappointed that Bush won't admit mistakes there and worried he therefore won't correct them.
"That's costing lives," said Trimboli.
He might end up voting for Bush anyway, but Trimboli has such doubts that he just might not vote for a presidential candidate on Nov. 2, election day.
One of the few voters still undecided or uncommitted in the state, Trimboli's reservations about Bush help explain why the president is fighting to win the biggest state still up for grabs a little more than two weeks before election day. He campaigned in Florida on Saturday, his 12th visit since spring.
Despite Bush's razor thin victory here in 2000, he arguably should be farther ahead this time. Consider:
_The state has trended more Republican since then, re-electing Jeb Bush as governor in 2002 by a comfortable margin.
_Voters gave both Bush brothers high marks for their quick and personal response to four hurricanes; 84 percent said Gov. Bush did an excellent or good job and 69 percent said President Bush did an excellent or good job.
_Military issues and national security dominate the campaign now, which should give Bush an edge, particularly among military families in northern Florida.
_The Democratic ticket does not have a Jewish running mate to boost turnout among Jewish retirees along the Southeast Florida coast. At the same time, the Republican ticket toppled Saddam Hussein, who had used cash to reward anti-Israeli terrorism.
"The landscape is better for Bush this time," said independent Florida-based pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon.
He acknowledged that Kerry could benefit from some discontent among Cuban Americans over Bush-imposed travel restrictions to Cuba. "But that one angle for Kerry doesn't offset the other advantages that Bush has," Coker said.
But something is. Polls show the race in Florida a dead heat.
A key reason, judging by a focus group of uncommitted voters in Orlando conducted by Zogby International for Knight Ridder on Friday evening, is that undecided voters who lean toward Bush like his steadiness but also want some sign of flexibility to change things that are not going well, particularly in Iraq.
Kerry faces hurdles as well. Undecided voters who lean toward the Democrat also want change, particularly in the economy. But they either see Kerry as a Washington insider poorly equipped to change things, or haven't yet seen the detail to back Kerry's claim that he has plans for everything from Iraq to the economy.
The group of 9 uncommitted voters from the most heavily contested section of the state split evenly, with four leaning toward Bush, four leaning toward Kerry, and one leaning toward third party candidate Ralph Nader, who is on the ballot in Florida.
Reasonably well informed, most have been paying at least some attention to the campaign. All watched at least part of the recent debates. Their inability to commit stems not from ignorance of the candidates or issues but from being turned off by one side and not quite sold on the other.
Of those leaning toward Bush, Iraq was the most mentioned reason why they're still undecided, followed by federal budget deficits.
"I have a son who just turned 18 last week," said Trimboli, 52, of Orlando. "I don't mind him fighting for his country. But I don't want him to go fight and die in a war that is being mishandled like Vietnam ... Bush is very confused in the way he's handling the war and his reasoning behind it."
James Shoemaker, 41, a chemist from Orlando, also was leaning toward Bush but refused to commit to the Republican yet. He did not like Kerry, saying he thought Kerry's objection to developing nuclear tipped bunker busting bombs was `irresponsible."
But he really doesn't like the way Bush has continued to support tax cuts and spending increases in the face of soaring federal deficits. His choice, he said, is "between Bush and writing in a protest vote."
Jenny Chen, 22, a computer analyst from Orlando, was leaning toward Kerry. She thought the Iraq war was unjustified and Bush too stubborn to change course there. She might listen to Bush, she said, if he concentrated more on domestic issues such as the economy and health care.
She preferred Kerry on those issues, but still needed to hear more about what he would do and how he would pay for it. "He should tell us what his plan is for America instead of just saying, `I have a plan.' Be specific. He says he has a plan to cut middle class taxes. Well, tell us how much."
John Atchason, 23, a student from Orlando, said he turned away from Bush because he thought the president doesn't understand the Middle East. "For every terrorist we catch, there's ten more," he said.
But he hasn't warmed to Kerry, and wonders whether anyone will. "He overanalyzes; maybe that's why he changes his mind so much. He needs to loosen up and connect with people ... I'm undecided because I don't fully trust either candidate. I may vote for Nader as a protest vote."
Source: San Jose Mercury News
Posted by State at October 16, 2004 05:04 PM
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