Social Science History Institute
Institute for International Studies
Stanford Center for International Development

• American Political Science Association, Jack L. Walker, Jr. Outstanding Article Award (for making an outstanding contribution to research and scholarship on political organizations and parties), 2009.

• National Science Foundation, Research Grant, “Candidate Ambiguity and Voter Choice” (with Robert Van Houweling), 2009–11.

• American Political Science Association, Giovanni Sartori Award (for the best book developing or applying qualitative methods), 2008.

• National Science Foundation, Early Career Development (CAREER) Award, "Credible Commitments in International Relations," 2006–11

• National Science Foundation, "Studies of Spatial Reasoning in Political Choice" (with Paul Sniderman and Robert Van Houweling), 2006–08.

• Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Fellow, 2006–07.

• Howard Foundation, George A. and Eliza Gardner Howard Fellowship, 2006–07.

• Stanford University, Victoria Schuck Faculty Scholar, 2006–09.

• National Science Foundation: Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), "Audience Costs in International Crises," 2003

• National Science Foundation: Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), "Political Choice Spaces and Political Choices" (with Paul Sniderman), 2003

• Fellow Designate, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (2002)

• Office of Technology Licensing Research Initiative, Stanford (2001)

• Okidata Award for the Best Research Software in Political Science, APSA (1999)

• MacArthur Fellowship in Transnational Security (1999-2000)

• Social Science Research Council Dissertation Fellowship (1998-99)

• Institute for the Study of World Politics Dissertation Fellowship (1998-99)

• Harvard Merit Fellowship (1997-98)

• Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship (1997-98)

• National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (1994-97)

• Marshall Scholarship (1992-94)

Books

Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. 

Modern Political Economy and Latin America: Theory and Policy, editor (with J. Frieden and M. Pastor).  Boulder: Westview Press, 2000.

Articles

The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity (with Robert Van Houweling). American Political Science Review 103, no. 1 (February 2009): 83–98.

Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Default and Expropriation (with Mark Wright). In The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment,, eds. William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, forthcoming 2010.

The Foundations of Domestic Audience Costs: Attitudes, Expectations, and Institutions. In Kitai, Seido, Gurobaru-shakai (Expectations, Institutions, and Global Society), eds. Masaru Kohno and Aiji Tanaka. Tokyo: Keiso-Shobo, forthcoming 2009.

Candidate Positioning and Voter Choice (with Robert Van Houweling). American Political Science Review 102, no. 3 (August 2008): 303–18.

Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61, no. 4 (Fall 2007): 821–40.

Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment (with Judith Goldstein and Douglas Rivers). American Economic Review 97, no. 5 (December 2007): 2005–18.

Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of the GATT and the WTO on World Trade (with Judith Goldstein and Douglas Rivers). International Organization 61, no. 1 (Winter 2007): 37–67.

Do Countries Default in Bad Times? (with Mark Wright). Journal of the European Economic Association 5, no. 2–3 (May 2007): 352–60.

“How Does Voting Equipment Affect the Racial Gap in Voided Ballots? (with Robert Van Houweling). American Journal of Political Science 47, no. 1 (January 2003): 46-60.

“Relogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression” (with Gary King and Langche Zeng). Journal of Statistical Software 8, no. 2 (2003) and Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 12, no. 1 (2003).

“Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results” (with Jason Wittenberg and Gary King). Journal of Statistical Software 8, no. 2 (2003) and Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 12, no. 1 (2003).

“An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data” (with Joshua Tucker and Jason Wittenberg). Political Analysis 10, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 66-83.

"Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation" (with G. King and J. Wittenberg).  American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (April 2000): 347-61.

"Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections" (with K. Scheve). British Journal of Political Science 29 (July 1999): 507-21.

"The Long-Run Advantages of Centralization for Collective Action" (with E. Schwartz). American Political Science Review 91 (September 1997): 685-93.

Working Papers

The Effect of International Law on Preferences and Beliefs

Interests, Information, and the Domestic Politics of International Agreements

Democratic Default: Domestic Audiences and Compliance with International Agreements

Candidate Inconsistency and Voter Choice (with Robert Van Houweling)

Brand Names and the Organization of Mass Belief Systems (with Paul Sniderman)

Statistical Software

Treatment: Software for Public Opinion Surveys with Embedded Experiments (with Nico Benitez), © 2009. Latest Version Beta 1.11, January 2009. Creates multimedia surveys with embedded experiments, delivers surveys over the internet, and generates datasets and codebooks for analysis.

Diagnosis: Software for Assessing Covariate Balance in Randomized Experiments and Observational Data, © 2007. Implements parametric and nonparametric tests for covariate balance.

Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results (with Jason Wittenberg and Gary King), copyright 1998–2003. Latest Version 2.1, released January 5, 2003. Uses stochastic simulation to interpret statistical results of non-linear models. Clarify won the 1999 APSA Award for the Best Research Software in Political Science.

ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression (with Gary King and Langche Zeng), copyright 1999–2003. Latest Version 2.0, released January 22, 2003. Performs logistic regression when the sample is unbalanced or has been selected by a rule correlated with the dependent variable.