Researchers expect the rate of post traumatic stress disorder among Iraq veterans will be as high as 35%. The study, ”A Dynamic Model for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Among U.S. Troops in Operation Iraqi Freedom (PDF)” is by Michael P. Atkinson of the Naval Postgraduate School and Adam Guetz of Stanford University, and Lawrence M. Wein of Stanford Graduate School of Business.
The authors combine a dynamic mathematical operations research model with deployment data and PTSD data from the Iraq War, and estimate that the PTSD rate among Iraq War veterans will be approximately 35%, which is roughly double the rate from the raw survey data. This doubling is due to the time lag between the PTSD-generating event and the onset of symptoms and to the fact that many surveyed troops will do subsequent deployments.
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