Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics

Summer 2009 Workshop

 

 

Segment 8: When Are Diverse Beliefs Central?

August 10 - 14

Organized by Mordecai Kurz, Stanford University; George Evans, University of Oregon and Maurizio Motolese, Catholic University of Milan, Italy.

 
 

 

The session will meet in Conference Room A in Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research located in Landau Economics Building.

Here is the map to the building.

 

Monday, August 10

8:45 Breakfast

9:15 - 10:25 Liquidity and Valuation in an Uncertain World presented by David Easley, Cornell University, co-authored with Maureen O'Hara, S. C. Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University.

10:25 - 10:40 Coffee

10:40 - 11:50 Option Value of Cash presented by Jialin Yu, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University.

11:50 - 1:30 Lunchtime discussion

1:30 - 2:40 The Role of Diverse Beliefs in Asset Risk Premia presented and co-authored by Mordecai Kurz, Stanford University and Maurizio Motolese, Catholic University of Milan.

Slides from Maurizio Motolese's presentation.

2:40 - 2:55 Coffee

2:55 - 4:05 Financial Leverage and Market Volatility with Rational Beliefs presented by Ho-Mou Wu, University of Beijing and co-authored with Wen-Chung Guo, National Taipei University.

4:05 - 4:20 Coffee

4:20 - 5:30 Learning, Hedging and the Natural Rate Hypothesis presented by Paul Shea, University of Kentucky and co-authored with Tom Cone, State University of New York, College at Brockport.

5:45 Discussion of day's events during a BBQ Dinner served on Stanford Campus.

 

Tuesday, August 11

8:30 Breakfast

9:00 - 10:10 Internal Rationality and Asset Prices presented by Klaus Adam, University of Manheim and co-authored with Albert Marcet, Institut d'Analisi Economica Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and  Juan Pablo Nicolini, Departamento de Economia, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

10:10 - 10:25 Coffee

10:25 - 11:35 Market Selection and Asset Prices presented by Larry Blume, Cornell University.

Larry Blume's paper one. Larry Blume's paper two.

11:35 - 11:50 Coffee

11:50 -  1:00 Expectational Coordination in a Class Economies with Strategic Substitutabilities: the Complete Information Case presented by Roger Guesnerie, College de France, Paris and co-authored with Pedro Jara-Moroni, Universidad de Chile, Santiago de Chile.

1:00 - 2:30 Lunchtime discussion

2:30 - 3:40 Defaults, Short Sales and the Social Cost of Volatility presented by Hiro Nakata, University of Essex.

3:40 - 3:55 Coffee

3:55 - 5:05 On the Dynamics of Beliefs presented by Mordecai Kurz, Stanford University.

 

Wednesday, August 12

8:30 Breakfast

9:00 - 10:10 Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Expectations presented and co-authored by William Branch, University of California, Irvine and George Evans, University of Oregon.

10:10 - 10:25 Coffee

10:25 - 11:35 Can Ambiguity Aversion explain the Equity Home Bias? presented by Koralai Kirabaeva, Cornell University.

11:35 - 11:50 Coffee

11:50 - 1:00 Stabilizing, Pareto Improving Policies with Diverse Beliefs presented by Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, Catholic University of Milan.

1:00 - 2:30 Lunchtime discussion

2:30  -  3:40 Heterogeneous Expectations, Shock Amplification and Complex Dynamics in Competitive Business Cycle Models presented by Bruce McGough, Oregon State University and co-authored William Branch, University of California, Irvine.

3:40 - 3:55 Coffee

3:55 - 5:05 The Diversity of Real-Time Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy presented by Volker Wieland, University of Frankfurt.

5:15 Half-Point Discussion. Wine and appetizers served.

 

Thursday, August 13

8:30 Breakfast

9:00 -10:10 Statistical Methods for Large Economies with Individual Risk: Malinvauds Model Revisited presented by Peter Hammond, University of Warwick.

10:10 - 10:25 Coffee

10:25 -11:35 Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes presented by Mikhail Anufriev and co-authored with Cars Hommes, both University of Amsterdam.

11:35 - 11:50 Coffee

11:50 -  1:00 What Moves Money Managers' Portfolios?  An Investigation of Preferences and Beliefs presented by Marco Aiolfi, Platinum Grove Asset Management.


1:00 - 2:30 Lunchtime discussion

2:30 - 3:15 Welfare Criteria in Economics with Diverse Beliefs. General discussion lead by Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, Catholic University of Milan.

3:15 - 3:30 Coffee

3:30 - 4:15 Rationality and Ambiguity in Markets with Diverse Beliefs. General discussion lead by Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, Catholic University of Milan and Larry Blume, Cornell University.

4:15 - 4:30 Coffee

4:30 - 5:00 Constructive Decision Theory presented by Larry Blume and David Easley, both Cornell University.

 

Friday, August 14

8:30 Breakfast

9:00 - 10:10 Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches presented by Agnieszka Markiewicz,  Erasmus University and co-authored with Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven in Belgium.

10:10 - 10:25 Coffee

10:25-11:35 Exchange Rates and Asset Prices: Heterogeneous Agents at Work presented by Giulia Piccillo, University of Leuven in Belgium.

11:35 - 11:50 Coffee

11:50 -1:00 Further Discussion of Expectational Coordination Problems presented by Roger Guesnerie, College de France, Paris.

1:00 - 2:30 Lunchtime discussion

2:30 - 5:00 Panel Discussion chaired by Maurizio Motolese, Catholic University of Milan.



 

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