$TITLE MERGE 5
* Default assumptions are specified here:
$if not set flex $set flex ref
$if not set ghglim $set ghglim ref
$if not set cse $set cse ref
$if not set damages $set damages no
$if not set lbd $set lbd no
$if not set abate $set abate no
$if not set sinks $set sinks no
$if not set basis $set basis ref
*==>$include "M5.SET"
* ------------------------------- M5.SET -------------------------------*
* This section of the code contains the set definitions and also the
* parameters associated with the time periods.
* This GAMS model is designed so that the time intervals may be of unequal
* length.
SETS
iter Negishi iterations
/it0*it10/;
* /it0/;
SCALAR
arbm Arbitrary multiplier on utility in last time period / 3/;
SETS
yr Years
/1990*2200/
tp(yr) Time periods (starting year)
/2000,
2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp10(tp)
/2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp20(tp)
/ 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp30(tp)
/ 2030, 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp40(tp)
/ 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp50(tp)
/ 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp60(tp)
/2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp70(tp)
/ 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
tp00(tp)
/ 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150,
2160, 2170, 2180, 2190, 2200/
lk(tp) Time periods for which activities are locked (starting year)
/2000, 2010, 2020/
sy(tp) Start year - afforestation activities
/2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050,
2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100,
2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150/
SETS
tbase(tp) Base year
pp(tp) Projection periods (all periods but the base period)
tperly(tp) Early years
tlast(tp) Last time period
ylast(yr) Last year;
tbase(tp) = yes$(ord(tp) eq 1);
pp(tp) = yes$(ord(tp) ne 1);
tperly(tp) = yes$(ord(tp) ne card(tp));
tlast(tp) = yes$(ord(tp) eq card(tp));
ylast(yr) = yes$(ord(yr) eq card(yr));
*display tp, tbase, pp, tperly, tlast, ylast;
* -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* To change number of scenarios, must modify SW (SW1,SW2), PROB.
* -------------------------------------------------------------------------
SETS
sw State of world
/sw1/;
PARAMETER
prob(*) Probability of each state of world
/sw1 1.0/;
* -------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCALAR
res Period of resolution
/2000/;
* -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Need following scalar to calibrate equilibrium tolerance
SCALAR
equil Equilibrium tolerance
/100/;
TABLE fyr(*,*) First Year of Time Period
fy
2000 2000
2005 2005
2010 2010
2015 2015
2020 2020
2030 2030
2040 2040
2050 2050
2060 2060
2070 2070
2075 2075
2080 2080
2090 2090
2100 2100
2110 2110
2120 2120
2130 2130
2140 2140
2150 2150
2160 2160
2170 2170
2180 2180
2190 2190
2200 2200;
PARAMETERS
te(tp) Years elapsed since beginning of first period
nyper(tp) Number of years in a given period - forward diff;
LOOP(tbase,
te(tp) = fyr(tp,"fy") - fyr(tbase, "fy")
);
PARAMETER year(tp) First year of time period;
year(tp) = fyr(tp,"fy");
nyper(tp) = te(tp+1) - te(tp);
nyper(tp)$(ord(tp) eq card(tp)) = nyper(tp-1);
PARAMETERS
yb(yr,tp) Years belonging to period tp ;
* The following statement assigns to the set YB(*,TP) all those years that
* belong to the period TP. The OR condition insures that the very last year
* is assigned to the very last period.
yb(yr+10,tp) = yes$(((ord(yr) ge (te(tp) + 1)) and ( ord(yr) lt (te(tp+1) + 1)))
or ((ord(yr) eq card(yr)) and (ord(tp) eq card(tp))));
*display te, yb;
TABLE st(* ,* ) Combinations of sw and tp requiring constraints
* Table is set up for either one or two sw. See also the following loop
* for modifications based on scalar res declared above.
sw1 sw2
1990 1
2000 1
2010 1
2020 1
2030 1 1
2040 1 1
2050 1 1
2060 1 1
2070 1 1
2075 1 1
2080 1 1
2090 1 1
2100 1 1
2110 1 1
2120 1 1
2130 1 1
2140 1 1
2150 1 1
2160 1 1
2170 1 1
2180 1 1
2190 1 1
2200 1 1
;
LOOP((tp,sw)$((ord(sw) ne 1) $(fyr(tp,"fy") le res)),
st(tp,sw) = 0;
);
SETS
mp Macroeconomic data
/kgdp, depr, esub, kpvs, elvs, intpr, pnref,
xntax, xetax, decf, nshf, expf, nxpf, ogpd, clgdp, nw/
at All technologies
/
hydro Existing hydroelectric (exogenous),
nuc-r Existing nuc-rlear electric,
nuc-n Advanced nuc-rlear electric (Gen III, Gen IV),
oil-r Remaining oil-fired electric,
gas-r Remaining gas-fired electric,
gas-n New vintage gas electric,
gas-ncs New vintage gas electric with CCS,
coal-r Remaining coal-fired electric,
coal-rcs Remaining coal-fired electric with CCS,
coal-n New coal-fired electric,
coal-ncs New coal-fired electric with CCS,
wind-lc Lower-cost renewable electric,
wind-hc Conventional renewable electric (wind-solar),
lbde Learning-by-doing electric,
gas-1*gas-10 Natural gas supply,
oil-1*oil-10 Oil spply including tar sands and shale oil,
coal Coal supply for both electric and non-electric,
bfuel Biomass non-electric energy,
synf Coal-based synthetic fuels,
cldu Coal for direct use -- primarily industrial use,
neb-hc "Non-electric backstop -- high cost for CCSP, assumed to be 25% high-cost biomass and 75% wind & solar hydrogen,"
neb-lc Non-electric backstop -- low cost,
lbdn Learning by doing nonelectric/
et(at) Electricity technologies
/hydro, nuc-r, oil-r, gas-r, gas-n, gas-ncs,
coal-r, coal-rcs, coal-n, coal-ncs,
wind-lc, wind-hc, nuc-n, lbde/
nt(at) Nonelectric energy supply technologies
/gas-1, gas-2, gas-3, gas-4, gas-5,
gas-6, gas-7, gas-8, gas-9, gas-10,
oil-1, oil-2, oil-3, oil-4, oil-5,
oil-6, oil-7, oil-8, oil-9, oil-10,
bfuel, synf, cldu, coal,
neb-hc, neb-lc, lbdn/
dle(et) Electricity technologies subject to decline limits
/gas-n, gas-ncs, coal-n, wind-lc, coal-ncs, wind-hc, nuc-n, lbde/
dln(nt) Nonelectric technologies subject to decline limits
/synf, cldu, neb-hc, neb-lc, lbdn/
xle(et) Electricity technologies subject to expansion limits
/lbde, coal-ncs, wind-hc, nuc-n, gas-ncs, wind-lc/
xlg(et) Gas-fired electricity technologies subject to expansion limits
/gas-r, gas-n/
xln(nt) Nonelectric technologies subject to expansion limits
/bfuel, synf, lbdn, neb-hc, neb-lc/
x(nt) Exhaustible fossil fuel resources
/gas-1, gas-2, gas-3, gas-4, gas-5,
gas-6, gas-7, gas-8, gas-9, gas-10,
oil-1, oil-2, oil-3, oil-4, oil-5,
oil-6, oil-7, oil-8, oil-9, oil-10,
coal/
oilc(nt) Oil cost categories
/oil-1, oil-2, oil-3, oil-4, oil-5,
oil-6, oil-7, oil-8, oil-9, oil-10/
gasc(nt) Gas cost categories
/gas-1, gas-2, gas-3, gas-4, gas-5,
gas-6, gas-7, gas-8, gas-9, gas-10/
trd Tradeable goods
/nmr, oil, gas, crt/
ghg Greenhouse gases
/co2, ch4, n2o, slf, llf/
ogg(ghg) Other (non-carbon) greenhouse gases
/ch4, n2o, slf, llf/
box Co2 decay boxes
/box1*box5/
abx Abatement cost index
/1*11/
rr Report rows /gdp, con, invd, invf, elec, nelec, tpe/
rg Regions
/usa, weur, japan, canz, eefsu, china, india, oilex, row/
anb(rg) Annex B regions
/usa, weur, japan, canz, eefsu/
nanb(rg) Non-Annex B regions
/china, india, oilex, row/
alias(r,rg);
*==>$include "tables\MACRO.TAB"
*----------------------------- MACRO.TAB -----------------------------*
* This data file contains the macroeconomic parameter values.
* Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, Appendix Table A14.
* See IEO-2004.xls
TABLE pop(*, *) Regional population - billions
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
1990 0.255 0.376 0.124 0.048 0.412 1.155 0.846 0.219 1.827 5.263
2000 0.276 0.390 0.127 0.054 0.411 1.275 1.017 0.273 2.239 6.061
2010 0.309 0.396 0.128 0.058 0.402 1.365 1.174 0.329 2.663 6.825
2020 0.335 0.397 0.126 0.062 0.393 1.429 1.312 0.388 3.088 7.531
inf 0.335 0.397 0.126 0.062 0.393 1.500 1.500 0.635 5.052 10.000
;
$ontext
Source for values at inf: OECD and EEFSU constant from 2020. China and India
stabilize at identical levels. OILEX and ROW chosen so that world population
will be 10 billion. Exponential approach to a stationary population.
$offtext
PARAMETERS
apop(rg) population parameter a
bpop(rg) population parameter b
cpop(rg) population parameter c;
apop(rg) = pop("inf",rg);
bpop(rg) = pop("inf",rg)-pop("2020",rg);
cpop(rg) = (pop("inf",rg)-pop("2020",rg))/(pop("inf",rg)-pop("2000",rg));
cpop(rg) = cpop(rg)**(1/20);
* To rule out a decline in population of any one region.
cpop(rg) = MIN(1, cpop(rg));
* Note that "te" counts the number of years elapsed since 2000.
pop(tp20,rg) = apop(rg) - bpop(rg)*(cpop(rg)**(te(tp20)-20));
pop(tp20,"world") = sum(rg, pop(tp20,rg));
DISPLAY apop, bpop, cpop, POP;
*TABLE POTGDP(tp,rg) Potential GDP - market exchange rates - trillion 1997 dollars
TABLE POTGDP(* , *) Potential GDP - market exchange rates - trillion 1997 dollars
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
2000 9.370 9.356 4.395 1.267 0.976 1.120 0.492 0.861 4.098 31.937
2010 12.427 11.233 5.085 1.696 1.521 2.228 0.833 1.148 5.942 42.113
2020 16.503 13.894 6.046 2.227 2.253 3.877 1.381 1.667 8.917 56.765
;
potgdp(tp,rg) = (9.817/9.370)*potgdp(tp,rg);
potgdp(tp,"world") = sum (rg, potgdp(tp,rg));
DISPLAY "1997 dollars are converted to 2000 dollars."
DISPLAY POTGDP;
PARAMETERS
YRPC(tp) YEARS AFTER 2000
APCL(rg) PER CAPITA LOGISTIC FUNCTION PARAMETER A
BPCL(rg) PER CAPITA LOGISTIC FUNCTION PARAMETER B
CPCL(rg) PER CAPITA LOGISTIC FUNCTION PARAMETER C;
*TABLE PCGDP(tp,rg) POTENTIAL PER CAPITA GDP - THOUSAND DOLLARS - 2000 PURCHASING POWER
TABLE PCGDP(* ,* ) POTENTIAL PER CAPITA GDP - THOUSAND DOLLARS - 2000 PURCHASING POWER
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2100 115 105 105 105 50 50 25 25 25
INF 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 ;
PCGDP("2000",rg) = POTGDP("2000",rg)/pop("2000",rg);
parameter yr00(tp) years after 2000;
* When using time intervals other than DECADES, must change following:
yr00(tp) = (ord(tp) - 1) * 10;
display yr00;
APCL(rg) = PCGDP("inf",rg);
BPCL(rg) = (APCL(rg)/PCGDP("2000",rg)) - 1;
CPCL(rg) = (1/BPCL(rg)) * ((APCL(rg)/PCGDP("2100",rg)) - 1);
CPCL(rg) = (1/100) * LOG(CPCL(rg)) ;
PCGDP(tp,rg) = 1 + BPCL(rg)*EXP(CPCL(rg) * yr00(tp));
PCGDP(tp,rg) = APCL(rg)/PCGDP(tp,rg);
POTGDP(tp,rg) = pop(tp,rg) * PCGDP(tp,rg) ;
POTGDP(tp,"world") = SUM(rg, POTGDP(tp,rg));
DISPLAY APCL, BPCL, CPCL, PCGDP, POTGDP, NYPER, TBASE;
* UNITS: TRILLION DOLLARS, EXAJOULES, TKWH, BILLION TONS OF CARBON.
*TABLE MACRO(mp, rg) MACROECONOMIC AND OTHER PARAMETERS
TABLE MACRO(mp, * ) MACROECONOMIC AND OTHER PARAMETERS
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
KGDP 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
DEPR 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
ESUB 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
KPVS 0.24 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
ELVS 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
INTPR 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.70 4.00 4.00 3.70 4.00
PNREF 2.75 5.00 6.00 4.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
XNTAX 5.00 5.00 2.50
XETAX
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
* MAXIMUM DECLINE AND EXPANSION FACTORS, ANNUAL.
* June 23, 2006: Changed from 0.98 to 0.95 to reduce use of
* the carbon relaxation constraint in years prior to 2100.
DECF 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965 0.965
NSHF 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
EXPF 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161
NXPF 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161 1.1161
* MISCELLANEOUS FACTORS
OGPD 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
CLGDP -.35 -.35 .35 .35
NW .230 .239 .095 .034 .042 .085 .037 .047 .190
;
$ontext
Terminology:
KGDP INITIAL CAPITAL-GDP RATIO
DEPR ANNUAL PERCENT DEPRECIATION
ESUB ELASTICITY BETWEEN K-L AND E-N
KPVS CAPITAL VALUE SHARE PARAMETER
ELVS ELECTRIC VALUE SHARE PARAMETER
INTPR INTERNATIONAL PRICE OF OIL - BASE YEAR - DOLLARS PER GJ
PNREF REFERENCE PRICE OF NON-ELECTRIC ENERGY - DOLLARS PER GJ
XNTAX EXISTING TAX RATE ON NONELECTRIC ENERGY
XETAX EXISTING TAX RATE ON ELECTRIC ENERGY
DECF MAX DECLINE FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR PE-DL AND SYNF TECHNOLOGIES
NSHF MAX MARKET SHARE FACTOR FOR EX AND NX TECHNOLOGIES
EXPF MAX EXPANSION FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR EX (ELECTRIC) TECHNOLOGIES
NXPF MAX EXPANSION FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR NX (NONELECTRIC) TECHNOLOGIES
OGPD OIL-GAS PRICE DIFFERENTIAL - DOLLARS PER GJ
CLGDP COAL-GDP GROWTH ELASTICITY - NO GROWTH POST-2050
NW INITIAL VALUES OF NEGISHI WEIGHTS
$OFFTEXT
SCALAR
WORLDNW WORLD CHECKSUM OF INITIAL NEGISHI WEIGHTS;
WORLDNW = SUM(rg, MACRO("nw",rg));
DISPLAY WORLDNW;
*PARAMETER MPC(tp);
PARAMETER MPC(* );
MPC("2000") = 5.0;
MPC("2005") = 4.95;
MPC("2010") = 4.9;
MPC("2015") = 4.85;
MPC("2020") = 4.8;
MPC("2030") = 4.7;
MPC("2040") = 4.6;
MPC("2050") = 4.5;
MPC("2060") = 4.4;
MPC("2070") = 4.3;
MPC("2080") = 4.2;
MPC("2090") = 4.1;
MPC("2100") = 4.0;
MPC("2110") = 3.9;
MPC("2120") = 3.8;
MPC("2130") = 3.7;
MPC("2140") = 3.6;
MPC("2150") = 3.5;
MPC("2160") = 3.4;
MPC("2170") = 3.3;
MPC("2180") = 3.2;
MPC("2190") = 3.1;
MPC("2200") = 3.0;
MPC(tp) = MPC(tp)/100;
PARAMETERS
GROW(tp,rg) POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH RATES - ANNUAL PERCENT
PGRO(tp,rg) POPULATION GROWTH RATES - ANNUAL PERCENT;
GROW(tp,rg) = (POTGDP(tp+1,rg)/POTGDP(tp,rg))**(1/NYPER(TP)) - 1;
PGRO(tp,rg) = (pop(tp+1,rg)/ pop(tp,rg))**(1/NYPER(TP)) - 1;
GROW(tp,rg) $ (ORD(tp) eq CARD(tp))
= (POTGDP(tp,rg) - POTGDP(tp-1,rg))/
(POTGDP(tp,rg) * NYPER(tp-1));
PGRO(tp,rg) $ (ORD(tp) eq CARD(tp))
= ( pop(tp,rg) - pop(tp-1,rg))/
( pop(tp,rg) * NYPER(tp-1));
GROW(tp,rg) = 100 * GROW(tp,rg);
PGRO(tp,rg) = 100 * PGRO(tp,rg);
DISPLAY GROW,PGRO;
PARAMETERS
AEEI(tp,rg) AUTONOMOUS ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT RATE - PERCENT PER YEAR;
*Based on Grubler suggestion for EMF 14 ground rules. AEEI proportional to
*annual growth rate of per capita income.
AEEI(tp,rg) = .50 * (GROW(tp,rg)-PGRO(tp,rg));
AEEI("2000",rg)$anb(rg) = .80 * (GROW("2000",rg)-PGRO("2000",rg));
AEEI("2010",rg)$anb(rg) = .70 * (GROW("2010",rg)-PGRO("2000",rg));
OPTION DECIMALS = 3;
DISPLAY AEEI;
GROW(tp,rg) = .01 * GROW(tp,rg);
PGRO(tp,rg) = .01 * PGRO(tp,rg);
AEEI(tp,rg) = .01 * AEEI(tp,rg);
*==>$include "tables\TRADE.TAB"
*----------------------------- TRADE.TAB -----------------------------*
* This data file contains the trade-related parameter values.
* Values for 2000 are based on BP Statistical Review, 2004. See BP-2004.XLS.
TABLE oilx(* , *) Oil export limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000 -26.0 -16.0 -12.2 1.4 8.0 -4.2 -3.2 45.2 6.9
2010 INF INF INF INF 10.0 INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF 15.0 INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF 20.0 INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF 25.0 INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF 30.0 INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
oilx(tbase,"world") = sum (rg, oilx(tbase,rg));
TABLE oilm(* , *) Oil import limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000 26.0 16.0 12.2 -1.4 -8.0 4.2 3.2 -45.2 -6.9
2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
DISPLAY oilx, oilm;
TABLE gasx(* , *) Gas export limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000 -4.2 -4.5 -2.7 3.9 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.7
2010 -5.0 INF INF 5.0 7.5 INF INF INF
2020 -2.5 INF INF 2.5 15.0 INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF 22.5 INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF 30.0 INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF 37.5 INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF 45.0 INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF 52.5 INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF 60.0 INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF 67.5 INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF 75.0 INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
gasx(tbase,"world") = sum (rg, gasx(tbase,rg));
TABLE gasm(* , *) Gas import limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000 4.2 4.5 2.7 -3.9 -3.3 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -3.7
2010 5.0 INF INF -5.0 INF 2.0 1.0 INF INF
2015 5.0 INF INF -5.0 INF 3.0 1.5 INF INF
2020 2.5 INF INF -2.5 INF 4.0 2.0 INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF 6.0 3.0 INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF 8.0 4.0 INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF 10.0 5.0 INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
gasx(tbase,"world") = sum (rg, gasx(tbase,rg));
DISPLAY GASX, GASM;
TABLE synx(* , *) Synthetic fuels export limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2015 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
TABLE synm(* , *) Synthetic fuels import limits (exaj)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
DISPLAY SYNX, SYNM;
TABLE eisxl(* , *) EIS export limits (billion dollars)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000
2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
TABLE eisml(* , *) EIS import limits (billion dollars)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000
2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
DISPLAY eisxl, eisml;
PARAMETER cstexp(trd) Unit export cost
/ nmr 0,
oil 0.333333,
gas 2.0
crt 0.1 /
*==>$include "tables\FLEX.%flex%"
*----------------------------- FLEX.REF -------------------------------*
* This data file contains the "where" and "when" flexibility parameters.
TABLE carxl(* , *) Carbon export limits (billion tons)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
TABLE carml(* , *) Carbon import limits (billion tons)
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
TABLE dclim(* , *) Annual limits on carbon delay-banking activities - billion tons
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
*==>$include "tables\CTAX.TAB"
*-------------------------------- TAX.TAB ---------------------------------*
*TABLE CTAX(tp,rg) - CARBON TAX - DOLLARS PER TON
TABLE CTAX(* ,rg) - CARBON TAX - DOLLARS PER TON
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
2000
;
DISPLAY CTAX;
*==>$include "tables\CARBON.TAB"
*---------------------------- CARBON.TAB --------------------------------*
PARAMETER rcl(tp) Relax carbon limit - penalty - dollars per ton;
rcl(tp) = 100000;
$ontext
Heat rates for coal-r, oil-r and gas-r based on 2000 statistics appearing in
World Energy Outlook, 2002, International Energy Agency. See HTRT-WEO.XLS.
Outside the OECD, these heat rates may be affected by the use of combined
heat and power. To avoid unrealistic heat rate improvements, we fix coal-r,
oil-r and gas-r in EEFSU and Non-Annex B. See M5.BND.
$offtext
TABLE htrt(et,rg) Heat rates - gj per kwh
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
coal-r 9.4 9.8 8.4 9.4 15.6 11.6 11.8 10.1 10.1
oil-r 9.7 9.0 7.7 9.7 20.0 13.9 16.0 9.3 9.3
gas-r 9.9 7.6 10.0 9.9 19.3 10.5 12.8 9.2 9.2
hydro 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
nuc-r 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
* Revised values based upon SFA.XLS:
gas-n 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3
coal-n 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
wind-lc 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
coal-ncs 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
wind-hc 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
nuc-n 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
lbde 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0;
* Carbon capture derates the heat rate. Citations:
*
* See page 3 (year 2012), Jeremy David and Howard Herzog,
* "The Cost of Carbon Capture" (MIT Working Paper, 2000).
*
* EPRI Spreadsheet from George Booras
HTRT("coal-rcs",rg) = HTRT("coal-r",rg) + 1.7;
HTRT("coal-ncs",rg) = HTRT("coal-n",rg) + 1.3;
HTRT("gas-ncs",rg) = HTRT("gas-n",rg) + 1.5;
$ontext
The values of the following carbon emission coefficients are based upon
EMF-12 ground rules:
oil: .01994 billion metric tons/exaj
gas: .01374 " "
coal: .02412 " "
synf: .04000 " "
Electric coefficients are expressed per TWH.
$offtext
TABLE cecn(*,rg) Carbon emission coefficients - nele - billion tons per exaj
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
oil .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994 .01994
gas .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374 .01374
cldu .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412 .02412
synf .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000 .04000;
TABLE cece(et,rg) Carbon emission coefficients - elec - billion tons per twh
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
gas-n .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935 .0935
;
cece("oil-r " ,rg) = htrt("oil-r " ,rg) * cecn("oil ",rg);
cece("gas-r " ,rg) = htrt("gas-r " ,rg) * cecn("gas ",rg);
cece("gas-n" ,rg) = htrt("gas-n" ,rg) * cecn("gas",rg);
cece("gas-ncs",rg) = htrt("gas-ncs" ,rg) * cecn("gas",rg) * .05;
cece("coal-r" ,rg) = htrt("coal-r" ,rg) * cecn("cldu",rg);
cece("coal-rcs",rg) = htrt("coal-r",rg) * cecn("cldu",rg) * .10;
cece("coal-n" ,rg) = htrt("coal-n" ,rg) * cecn("cldu",rg);
cece("coal-ncs",rg) = htrt("coal-ncs" ,rg) * cecn("cldu",rg) * .05;
DISPLAY htrt, cecn, cece;
SCALAR syntpe Adjustment for synfuels in TPE report /.66/;
*==>$include "tables\CLIMATE.TAB"
*---------------------------- CLIMATE.TAB ----------------------------*
* This data file contains the climate and impacts parameter values.
TABLE global(*,*) Global greenhouse gas factors - billion tons of gas
* Proxy F-gases: hfc-134a sf6
co2 ch4 n2o slf llf
gwp 1.000 21 310 1300 22200
basestock 4.850 1.510
pi .60 .12 1 1
nonem .200
nonemgr .010
rffac 5.35 0.0360 .12
odecay1 0.083 .0083 .069 .0003125;
* Parameters derived from WIGLEY.XLS:
global("basestock", "slf") = 20.20 * 17.14/1000000;
global("basestock", "llf") = 24.93 * 25.05/1000000;
global("rffac ", "slf") = .15 * 17.14;
global("rffac ", "llf") = .52 * 25.05;
option decimals = 6;
display global;
$ontext
pi Percentage of ogg subject to decay, MIT model
first-tier rffac: p.358, "Climate Change 2001"
odecay1: parameter delt0, MIT model
Note: CO2, CH4, and N2O have a natural "equilibrium" level so we apply
the decay function only to the stock above that natural level; i.e.
the anthropogenic contribution beyond preindustrial.
Caveat: If you change gwp(ghg) horizon, you must move around the
asterisks immediately below. Also change gwp in TABLE GLOBAL.
Following factors refer, respectively, to 20 and 500 years (expressed
in terms of co2). Table GLOBAL refers to 100 years - also in terms of
co2. Following conversions are needed in order to express weights in
terms of carbon.
gwp("ch4") = 56*12/44;
gwp("n2o") = 280*12/44;
gwp("ch4") = 6.5*12/44;
gwp("n2o") = 170*12/44;
According to IPCC, "Climate Change 2001", concentrations in 1998: p. 38
co2 365 ppm
ch4 1745 ppb
n2o 314 ppb
CO2: 1997 cement production produced 200 million tons of carbon.
from EMF21.XLS:
CH4 total anthropogenic 268 million tons
CH4 from natural gas 45
CH4 from coal 22
CH4 - non-energy 201
Natural 160
Non-energy + natural 361
N2O: value based on EMF21.XLS - and annual growth rate between 2000 and 2010.
odecay1 (for slf and llf): MIT GAMS model parameter "delta", single
year dissipation rate
$offtext
PARAMETERS
gwp(ghg) Global warming potential - carbon-equivalence factors
basestock(ghg) Base year stock of each greenhouse gas - billion tons
pi(ghg) Percentage of ghg subject to decay
eqstock(ghg) Equilibrium stock of ghg
nonem(ghg,tp) Non-energy emissions of each greenhouse gas - billion tons
nonemgr(ghg) Annual growth rate of non-energy emissions
rffac(ghg) Multiplicative factor for measuring radiative forcing
decay1(box) Yearly retention factor for each fraction of carbon (box)
odecay1(ghg) Yearly retention factor for the other (non-co2) greenhouse gases;
gwp(ghg) $ (ord(ghg) ge 2) = global("gwp",ghg)*12/44;
gwp("co2") = 1.0;
basestock(ghg) = global("basestock",ghg);
pi(ghg) = global("pi",ghg);
eqstock(ghg) = (1 - pi(ghg))*basestock(ghg);
nonem(ghg,"2000") = global("nonem", ghg);
nonemgr(ghg) = global("nonemgr", ghg);
rffac(ghg) = global("rffac", ghg);
decay1("box1") = 1.0000 ;
decay1("box2") = exp(-1/313.8);
decay1("box3") = exp(-1/79.8) ;
decay1("box4") = exp(-1/18.8) ;
decay1("box5") = exp(-1/1.7) ;
odecay1(ghg)$(not sameas(ghg,"co2")) = 1 - global("odecay1",ghg);
DISPLAY gwp, pi, eqstock, decay1, odecay1;
SET
nyr Years
/1*10/
*TABLE NYRTP(tp,nyr) Multipliers for calculating DECAY2 and ODECAY2 - number of years in each time period
TABLE NYRTP(* ,nyr) Multipliers for calculating DECAY2 and ODECAY2 - number of years in each time period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2005 1 1 1 1 1
2010 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2015 1 1 1 1 1
2020 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2030 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2040 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2050 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2060 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2070 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2080 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2090 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2110 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2120 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2130 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2140 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2150 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2160 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2170 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2180 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2190 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
;
PARAMETERS decay2(*,box) One period retention factor for each co2 box
odecay2(*,*) One period retention factor for each non-co2 gas;
decay2(tp,box) = sum(nyr, nyrtp(tp,nyr)* decay1(box)**(ord(nyr)-1));
odecay2(tp,ghg)$(not sameas(ghg,"co2")) = sum(nyr, nyrtp(tp,nyr)*odecay1(ghg)**(ord(nyr)-1));
display decay1, odecay1, decay2, odecay2;
$ontext
For the units of measurement and the equations in which the following
parameters appear, see A. Manne, R. Mendelsohn and R. Richels, "MERGE: a
Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies",
pp.143-172 in N. Nakicenovic, W. Nordhaus, R. Richels and F. Toth (eds.),
"Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts, and Adaptation to Climate
Change", CP-94-9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, May 1994.
$offtext
SCALARS
nco2 Pre-industrial level of CO2 assumed never to decay / 594/
rfex Exponential term in N2O&CH4 rad. forcing relation / 0.5/
rfbase Base year term for converting rad. forcing to PT / 2.2/
lag1 Yearly lag used to calculate AT from PT / 0.038 /;
DISPLAY lag1;
PARAMETERS
frac(box) Fraction of CO2 emissions decaying within a certain box
co2base(box) Base level of CO2 emissions within each box
inter(ghg) Term simulating interactive subtractive effects of CH4&N2O
sm(ghg) Stock multiplier term for CH4&N2O - used for rad. forcing;
LOOP(tp,
nonem(ghg,tp+1) = (1+nonemgr(ghg))**nyper(tp) * nonem(ghg,tp);
);
nonem("co2",tp)$(fyr(tp,"fy")>2100) = nonem("co2","2100");
DISPLAY nonem;
frac("box1") = 0.142;
frac("box2") = 0.241;
frac("box3") = 0.323;
frac("box4") = 0.206;
frac("box5") = 0.088;
* 2000 values from \M4.5\DIST\REF.LST, 2-26-02.
co2base("box1") = 44.444;
co2base("box2") = 66.461;
co2base("box3") = 65.929;
co2base("box4") = 20.310;
co2base("box5") = 1.316;
basestock("co2") = sum(box, co2base(box)) + nco2;
* Values based on IPCC, "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis", pp. 248,251
display basestock;
basestock(ghg) = basestock(ghg)*gwp(ghg);
display "The following stocks are expressed in terms of carbon equivalents.",basestock;
basestock(ghg) = basestock(ghg)/gwp(ghg);
display "The following stocks are expressed in terms of original units.",basestock;
PARAMETER lag2(tp) One period temperature lag - compounded from lag1;
lag2(tp) = 1 - (1-lag1)**nyper(tp);
display lag2;
inter("ch4") = 0.85;
inter("n2o") = 0.92;
sm("ch4") = 351.0;
sm("n2o") = 206.7;
* This section contains parameters related to the impacts of climate change.
PARAMETER mdam(rg) Market damage multipliers - fractional GDP loss for TEMPREF
/ usa 0.0025
weur 0.0025
japan 0.0025
canz 0.0025
eefsu 0.0025
china 0.005
india 0.005
oilex 0.005
row 0.005 /
PARAMETER mkt(rg) Latitude factor - temperature multiplier for market damages
/ usa 1.0
weur 1.0
japan 1.0
canz 1.0
eefsu 1.0
china 1.0
india 0.5
oilex 0.5
row 0.5 /
SCALAR tempref Reference temperature for the market damage multipiers /2.5/;
PARAMETER wtptemp(*) Reference temperature for willingness to pay function
/ sw1 2.5
sw2 2.5/;
PARAMETER wtploss(* ) Reference loss - fractional gdp loss for wtptemp at high incomes
/ sw1 0.02
sw2 0.02 /;
PARAMETER catt(rg,sw) Catastrophic temperature for non-market effects;
* Quadratic extrapolation from wtploss and wtptemp.
CATT(rg,sw) = (WTPTEMP(sw)**2/WTPLOSS(sw)) ** .5;
PARAMETER
rfconv(*) Multiplicative term for converting radiative forcing to PT
/ sw1 .618/;
$ontext
Sulfur emissions based on IIASA B-2 marker scenario through 2100. See SRES
(2000). "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios". A Special Report of Working
Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Post-2100, freehand extrapolation.
$offtext
PARAMETERS
*sem(sw,tp) world sox emissions - energy-related - million tons of sulfur;
sem(sw, *) world sox emissions - energy-related - million tons of sulfur;
sem(sw,"1990") = 70.9;
sem(sw,"2000") = 69.0;
sem(sw,"2010") = 65.9;
sem(sw,"2020") = 61.3;
sem(sw,"2030") = 60.3;
sem(sw,"2040") = 59.0;
sem(sw,"2050") = 55.7;
sem(sw,"2060") = 53.8;
sem(sw,"2070") = 50.9;
sem(sw,"2080") = 50.0;
sem(sw,"2090") = 49.0;
sem(sw,"2100") = 47.9;
sem(sw,"2110") =.95*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2120") =.90*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2130") =.85*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2140") =.80*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2150") =.75*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2160") =.75*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2170") =.65*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2180") =.65*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2190") =.55*sem(sw,"2100") ;
sem(sw,"2200") =.50*sem(sw,"2100") ;
Display "Electricity and other energy-related SO2 Emissions - million tons of sulfur" ;
Display sem;
$ontext
Sulfur impacts on potential temperature - based on IPCC Technical Paper II,
"An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment
Report", February 1997, Appendix 2.
$offtext
parameters
qdir direct cooling effect of sulfur emissions - watts per square meter
enat natural sulfur emissions - million tons per year
qindir indirect cooling effect of sulfur emissions - watts per square meter
cpt(tp,sw) cooling impact of sulfur on potential temperature - degrees C
cool(* ,sw) cooling impact of sulfur on potential temperature - degrees C;
qdir = .3;
qindir = .8;
enat = 42;
cpt(tp,sw) = rfconv(sw) * qdir * sem(sw,tp)/69.0;
display "First we show the direct cooling effect of sulfur emissions."
display cpt;
display "Now we show the indirect plus direct cooling effects.";
cpt(tp,sw) = cpt(tp,sw) + rfconv("sw1") * qindir *
log(1 + sem(sw,tp)/enat) / log(1 + 69.0/enat);
display cpt;
cool("1990",sw) = .629;
cool(tp,sw) = cpt(tp,sw);
display cool;
*==>$include "tables\FOREST.TAB"
*-----------------------------FOREST.TAB -------------------------------------*
SET ps Alternative price scenarios for afforestation /1*6/;
TABLE price(tp,tp,ps) Carbon price vector for scenario ps - start year sy - dollars per ton
1 2 3 4 5 6
2010.2010 5.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 100.0 75.0
2010.2020 8.1 16.3 13.4 26.9 100.0 125.0
2010.2030 13.3 26.5 18.1 36.1 100.0 175.0
2010.2040 21.6 43.2 24.3 48.5 100.0 225.0
2010.2050 35.2 70.4 32.6 65.2 100.0 275.0
2010.2060 57.3 114.7 43.8 87.7 100.0 275.0
2010.2070 93.4 186.8 58.9 117.8 100.0 275.0
2010.2080 152.1 304.3 79.2 158.4 100.0 275.0
2010.2090 247.8 495.6 106.4 212.8 100.0 275.0
2010.2100 403.7 807.3 143.0 286.0 100.0 275.0;
loop(sy,price(sy+1,tp+1,ps) = price(sy,tp,ps););
DISPLAY price;
TABLE cab(sy,tp,ps) Annual gain from afforestation - billion tons of carbon
* Based on GTM - Brent Sohngen's spreadsheet posted on EMF 21 website
1 2 3 4 5 6
2010.2010 0.005 0.001 0.049 0.109 0.535 0.492
2010.2020 -0.013 0.037 0.119 0.251 1.071 1.171
2010.2030 0.042 0.082 0.146 0.305 0.851 1.661
2010.2040 0.092 0.214 0.206 0.428 0.834 2.108
2010.2050 0.198 0.226 0.295 0.525 0.720 2.087
2010.2060 0.279 0.630 0.368 0.708 0.599 1.807
2010.2070 0.758 1.504 0.550 1.146 0.522 1.383
2010.2080 1.671 2.811 0.872 1.736 0.547 1.230
2010.2090 2.951 4.099 1.409 2.364 0.529 1.129
2010.2100 3.333 4.287 1.632 2.322 0.463 1.937;
$ontext
* Based on Willy Makundi and Jayant Sathaye - GCOMAP spreadsheet posted on EMF 21 website
1 2 3 4 5 6
2010.2010 0.085 0.146 0.142 0.284 0.967 0.778
2010.2020 0.168 0.282 0.235 0.448 1.346 1.057
2010.2030 0.267 0.424 0.315 0.562 1.253 0.981
2010.2040 0.359 0.591 0.344 0.638 1.011 0.753
2010.2050 0.466 0.749 0.363 0.647 0.683 0.526
2010.2060 0.669 1.046 0.462 0.782 0.691 0.552
2010.2070 0.920 1.434 0.577 0.938 0.684 0.582
2010.2080 1.251 1.886 0.674 1.092 0.641 0.513
2010.2090 1.673 1.779 0.842 1.288 0.735 0.576
2010.2100 1.477 1.503 0.926 1.272 0.521 0.509
$offtext
loop(sy,cab(sy+1,tp+1,ps) = cab(sy,tp,ps);); display cab;
SCALAR acf average cost - fraction of marginal cost; acf = .8;
PARAMETERS co2fac(ghg) CO2 factor for equations totemit /co2 1, ch4 0/;
*==>$include "tables\BLNABC.TAB"
*-----------------------------BLNABC.TAB -------------------------------------*
* This data file contains the emission baselines and abatement cost parameters.
$ontext
Except for the technical progress parameters, the following estimates are
derived from spreadsheets originally distributed by EMF21. See ch4tot.xls,
n2otot.xls, slftot.xls, llftot.xls. Also see imac*.xls.
$offtext
TABLE bline(ghg ,*, *) Emission baselines - non-energy related
* input in million TCE - output in billion TCE
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
ch4.1990 107.7 160.7 7.7 55.5 202.1 209.6 100.9 83.8 384.5 1312.4
ch4.2000 100.3 131.3 6.6 65.8 170.8 253.1 114.4 85.8 446.1 1374.1
ch4.2010 105.2 128.3 6.1 72.5 189.2 296.5 128.1 104.1 525.6 1555.7
ch4.2020 99.7 131.7 5.8 80.1 208.7 338.2 144.2 124.0 637.3 1769.8
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
n2o.1990 106.1 111.7 6.3 23.1 82.4 43.2 86.6 30.9 375.0 865.1
n2o.2000 116.2 96.2 7.4 26.5 64.2 46.9 112.1 33.7 446.3 949.5
n2o.2010 122.4 99.4 8.2 31.4 77.1 52.5 126.0 42.4 522.2 1081.7
n2o.2020 128.4 100.2 8.1 37.3 93.3 58.6 142.7 53.9 635.2 1257.8
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
slf.2000 19.68 11.80 6.69 1.84 1.67 2.26 0.21 1.65 5.91 51.71
slf.2010 44.58 28.58 13.22 3.71 7.15 14.46 1.05 7.90 28.65 149.30
slf.2020 74.85 33.53 14.91 5.48 11.72 38.39 1.57 13.13 51.62 245.19
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
llf.2000 17.44 8.48 8.39 3.83 5.55 11.97 0.57 1.29 11.54 69.06
llf.2010 10.44 6.11 4.23 4.45 5.03 20.25 0.55 1.82 10.52 63.39
llf.2020 7.63 4.50 3.02 3.15 3.40 21.43 0.53 1.71 9.94 55.32;
* Baseline emissions are extrapolated linearly from 2020 through 2100; no
* change thereafter. Equal time intervals: decades.
LOOP(tp,
bline(ghg,tp,rg)$(year(tp) ge 2030) =
bline(ghg,tp-1,rg) + .5*(bline(ghg,"2020",rg) - bline(ghg,"2000",rg));
bline(ghg,tp,rg) = max(0, bline(ghg,tp,rg))
);
bline(ghg,tp,rg)$(year(tp) > 2100) = bline(ghg,"2100",rg);
* Revised extrapolation procedure for n2o.
bline("n2o",pp,rg) = bline("n2o","2000",rg);
bline(ghg,tp,"world") = sum(rg, bline(ghg,tp,rg));
DISPLAY bline;
DISPLAY "Now we convert from million tce to billion tce.";
bline(ghg,tp,rg) = .001 * bline(ghg,tp,rg);
bline(ghg,tp,"world") = .001 * bline(ghg,tp,"world");
DISPLAY bline;
TABLE abcst(abx,ghg) Abatement Costs - dollars per TCE
ch4 n2o slf llf
1 10 10 10 10
2 20 20 20 20
3 30 30 30 30
4 40 40 40 40
5 50 50 50 50
6 75 75 75 75
7 100 100 100 100
8 125 125 125 125
9 150 150 150 150
10 175 175 175 175
11 200 200 200 200;
PARAMETER abmlt(*) Abatement quantity multipliers - technical progress;
* Multiplier of abatement potential in 2010.
abmlt("2000") = 0.00;
abmlt("2010") = 1.00;
abmlt("2020") = 1.125;
abmlt("2030") = 1.25;
abmlt("2040") = 1.375;
abmlt("2050") = 1.50;
abmlt("2060") = 1.60;
abmlt("2070") = 1.70;
abmlt("2080") = 1.80;
abmlt("2090") = 1.90;
abmlt("2100") = 2.00;
abmlt("2110") = 2.10;
abmlt("2120") = 2.20;
abmlt("2130") = 2.30;
abmlt("2140") = 2.40;
abmlt("2150") = 2.50;
abmlt("2160") = 2.60;
abmlt("2170") = 2.70;
abmlt("2180") = 2.80;
abmlt("2190") = 2.90;
abmlt("2200") = 3.00;
;
TABLE ablim(ghg,abx, *, *) Abatement limits at alternative cost levels
* Input in million TCE - output in billion TCE
* Revised values - adding enteric and rice to CH4 abatement; soil management to N2O
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
ch4.1.2010 36.74 12.85 1.11 11.03 33.64 72.25 9.93 9.07 47.54 234.16
ch4.2.2010 41.73 12.96 1.12 12.84 35.45 75.52 10.07 13.63 57.39 260.70
ch4.3.2010 55.14 14.66 1.21 14.16 37.29 84.57 10.07 15.32 62.91 295.32
ch4.4.2010 55.14 16.36 1.21 14.16 37.76 84.57 10.07 15.83 66.33 301.43
ch4.5.2010 63.03 16.36 1.21 14.64 37.76 91.10 10.76 15.83 73.02 323.71
ch4.6.2010 71.21 16.37 1.21 15.46 37.76 91.10 11.59 15.83 73.34 333.88
ch4.7.2010 75.14 17.47 1.27 16.04 40.09 99.75 11.80 17.13 86.63 365.31
ch4.8.2010 75.14 19.79 1.28 17.30 43.76 104.95 13.58 17.45 87.66 380.90
ch4.9.2010 75.14 22.05 1.28 17.89 48.11 109.88 14.05 17.45 89.88 395.73
ch4.10.2010 75.37 22.63 1.28 18.60 49.03 109.88 14.49 18.13 92.24 401.65
ch4.11.2010 76.06 22.63 1.52 18.60 49.03 117.47 14.49 18.77 106.47 425.05
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
n2o.1.2010 10.95 14.35 2.72 1.45 2.94 13.17 13.24 0.54 11.32 70.68
n2o.2.2010 10.95 14.40 2.72 1.45 2.94 13.17 13.24 0.54 11.32 70.73
n2o.3.2010 10.95 14.40 2.72 1.45 2.94 13.17 13.24 0.70 12.29 71.86
n2o.4.2010 10.95 14.40 2.72 1.45 2.94 13.17 13.24 0.71 12.34 71.92
n2o.5.2010 10.95 14.40 2.72 1.45 2.94 18.65 13.24 0.71 12.43 77.50
n2o.6.2010 10.95 14.40 2.72 1.45 2.94 18.65 18.02 0.71 14.97 84.82
n2o.7.2010 12.61 14.40 2.72 1.66 2.94 18.65 18.02 0.71 15.00 86.71
n2o.8.2010 12.61 14.40 2.72 1.66 2.94 18.65 18.02 0.71 15.00 86.71
n2o.9.2010 15.24 14.40 2.72 1.98 2.94 20.24 18.02 0.74 15.24 91.53
n2o.10.2010 15.24 15.48 2.72 2.19 2.94 20.24 18.02 0.74 15.26 92.82
n2o.11.2010 15.24 15.48 2.72 2.19 2.94 20.24 18.02 0.74 15.26 92.82
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
slf.1.2010 4.53 3.43 1.04 0.47 1.57 3.53 0.21 1.89 6.24 22.92
slf.2.2010 7.69 5.28 2.27 0.76 1.58 3.54 0.21 1.89 7.15 30.37
slf.3.2010 8.15 5.74 2.76 0.84 1.59 3.55 0.21 1.90 7.19 31.94
slf.4.2010 8.15 5.74 2.76 0.84 1.65 4.10 0.21 1.90 7.68 33.04
slf.5.2010 8.15 5.74 2.76 0.84 1.76 4.50 0.21 1.90 7.68 33.54
slf.6.2010 10.20 6.13 2.83 1.02 1.92 4.65 0.22 2.45 7.44 36.85
slf.7.2010 10.20 6.81 2.83 1.09 2.05 4.65 0.25 2.46 9.14 39.48
slf.8.2010 13.72 8.92 4.18 1.36 2.09 4.79 0.29 2.48 9.49 47.32
slf.9.2010 13.72 9.08 4.43 1.36 2.09 4.79 0.29 2.48 9.49 47.73
slf.10.2010 13.72 9.08 4.43 1.36 2.09 4.79 0.29 2.48 9.49 47.73
slf.11.2010 13.77 9.13 4.45 1.36 2.10 4.82 0.29 2.48 9.50 47.90
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
llf.1.2010 4.23 1.31 1.47 1.84 1.93 16.41 0.15 1.06 4.50 32.91
llf.2.2010 4.26 1.47 1.47 1.88 1.97 16.41 0.15 1.06 4.50 33.18
llf.3.2010 4.37 1.47 1.48 1.88 2.15 16.57 0.17 1.06 4.50 33.65
llf.4.2010 4.39 1.51 1.48 1.88 2.15 16.57 0.17 1.06 4.54 33.75
llf.5.2010 4.39 1.51 1.48 1.88 2.15 16.57 0.17 1.06 4.54 33.75
llf.6.2010 4.42 1.51 1.48 1.90 2.18 16.57 0.17 1.06 4.54 33.83
llf.7.2010 4.49 1.54 1.53 1.90 2.18 16.60 0.17 1.06 4.63 34.11
llf.8.2010 4.49 1.54 1.53 1.90 2.18 16.60 0.17 1.06 4.63 34.11
llf.9.2010 4.55 1.57 1.58 1.90 2.18 16.61 0.17 1.06 4.71 34.34
llf.10.2010 4.55 1.57 1.58 1.90 2.18 16.61 0.17 1.06 4.71 34.34
llf.11.2010 4.55 1.57 1.58 1.90 2.18 16.61 0.17 1.06 4.71 34.34;
ablim("co2",abx,tp+4,rg) = ablim("co2",abx,"2010",rg);
ablim(ogg, abx,tp ,rg) = ablim(ogg,abx,"2010",rg) * bline(ogg,tp,rg)/bline(ogg,"2010",rg);
display ablim;
* Allow for technical progress in abatement for greenhouse gases other than co2.
ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg)$(not sameas("co2",ghg)) = abmlt(tp)*ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg);
display ablim;
ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg)$(not sameas("co2",ghg)) = min(ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg), 1000*bline(ghg,tp,rg));
display ablim;
parameter pctabate(ghg,tp,rg) Maximum percent abatement;
pctabate(ghg,tp,rg)$bline(ghg,tp,rg) = .1*ablim(ghg,"11",tp,rg)/bline(ghg,tp,rg);
display pctabate;
ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg) = .001 * ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg);
ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg) = ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg)$(ablim(ghg,abx,tp,rg) ge .0001);
ablim(ghg,abx,tp,"world") = 0;
DISPLAY "Now ABLIM is measured in billion tce.", ablim;
ablim(ghg,abx+1,tp,rg) = ablim(ghg,abx+1,tp,rg) - ablim(ghg,abx, tp,rg);
* To deal with rare cases of non-monotone cumulative costs:
ablim(ghg,abx+1,tp,rg) = max (0, ablim(ghg,abx+1,tp,rg));
display "Now ABLIM is measured in billion tce", ablim;
*==>$include "tables\CONLIM.TAB"
*----------------------------- CONLIM.TAB-------------------------------*
* This data file contains the carbon concentration limits.
*TABLE CONLIM(tp,sw) CARBON CONCENTRATION LIMITS - PPMV
TABLE CONLIM(* , *) CARBON CONCENTRATION LIMITS - PPMV
SW1 SW2
1990 353 353
2000 370 370
2010 INF INF
2020 INF INF
2030 INF INF
2040 INF INF
2050 INF INF
2060 INF INF
2070 INF INF
2080 INF INF
2090 INF INF
2100 INF INF
2110 INF INF
2120 INF INF
2130 INF INF
2140 INF INF
2150 INF INF
2160 INF INF
2170 INF INF
2180 INF INF
2190 INF INF
2200 INF INF
;
*==>$include "tables\GHGLIM.ref"
*----------------------------- GHGLIM.REF-------------------------------*
* This data file contains greenhouse gas limits.
PARAMETERS
ptdlim(tp,sw) Upper bound on potential temperature increase from 1750
atdlim(tp,sw) Upper bound on actual temperature increase from 2000
atdinc(tp,sw) Upper bound on actual temperature increments
tygcl(sw) Upper bound on world carbon emissions - last period;
ptdlim(tp,sw) = inf;
atdlim(tp,sw) = inf;
atdinc(tp,sw) = inf;
tygcl(sw) = inf;
* Sources of CARBIEO, CARLIM : ieo-2004.xls
TABLE carbieo(* , *) Carbon emissions - IEO 2004 - reference case - billion tons
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
1990 1.361 0.931 0.269 0.209 1.337 0.617 0.153 0.280 0.725 5.881
2000 1.578 0.939 0.310 0.264 0.844 0.780 0.249 0.393 1.061 6.419
2010 1.789 0.973 0.338 0.311 0.927 1.108 0.311 0.477 1.325 7.559
2020 2.055 1.045 0.354 0.359 1.092 1.553 0.429 0.591 1.669 9.148
;
OPTION DECIMALS = 3;
DISPLAY carbieo;
PARAMETERS krf(rg) Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas reduction factor;
krf("usa") = .07;
krf("weur") = .08;
krf("japan") = .06;
krf("canz") = .00;
krf("eefsu") = .00;
$ontext
Dealing with the U.S. GHG intensity strategy.
"A new climate change strategy for the United States announced by
President Bush on February 14, 2002, sets a voluntary "greenhouse gas
intensity" target for the nation, expands existing programs
encouraging companies to voluntarily report and reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions, and proposes increased federal funding for
climate change science and technology development. Some elements of
the Administration's strategy may provide additional incentive to
companies to voluntarily reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the
Administration's target - an 18 percent reduction in emissions
intensity between now and 2012 - will allow actual emissions to
increase 12 percent over the same period. Emissions will continue to
grow at nearly the same rate as at present."
The GDP numbers from the current runs of the model for the U.S. are
9.817 in 2000 and 12.833 in 2010. We want to do this analysis with
the recognition that cement plays a role in carbon emissions. At the
same time, cement in the model is not broken out by country. Hence,
for this run through, I am going to assume that these IEO numbers are
energy only and I will modify the carlim appropriately. The carlim in
M5.BND is based on energy only: it is translated into to CLEV, which
is an energy only number. So the treatment of cement here is not what
it should be, but this is a good enough approximation for now.
In addition, the full 18 percent is being applied to the 2000 number
to get the 2010 number, even though the constraint is intended to
apply to 2012. This is because 2002, the year off of which the target
was based, was ostensibly already working down in intensity. So 18
percent from 2000 to 2010 should be on roughly the path of 18 percent
from 2002 to 2012.
$offtext
$ontext
First two rows below are taken from IEO 2004, reference case. The
third row is adjusted for Kyoto and the U.S. greenhouse gas intensity
target
$offtext
TABLE CARLIM(*, *, *) ANNUAL CARBON LIMITS - BILLION TONS
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
sw1.1990 1.361 0.931 0.269 0.209 1.337 0.617 0.153 0.280 0.725 5.881
sw1.2000 1.578 0.939 0.310 0.264 0.844 0.780 0.249 0.393 1.061 6.419
sw1.2010 1.691 0.858 0.253 0.209 1.337 1.108 0.311 0.477 1.325
;
* Before changing this table, please discuss with Alan.
carlim(sw,tp20, rg) = inf;
carlim(sw,tp20,"world") = inf;
OPTION DECIMALS = 3;
DISPLAY carlim;
TABLE ogglim(ogg, *, *) Limit on other (non-carbon) greenhouse gases - non-energy emissions - by region - billion tons
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
ch4.2000 0.037216 0.027589 0.002483 0.014389 0.030164 0.050062 0.034562 0.029350 0.135185 0.361000
n2o.2000 0.002467 0.001769 0.000137 0.000569 0.001182 0.003669 0.002377 0.001227 0.001303 0.014700
slf.2000 0.041113 0.023783 0.009151 0.005642 0.006622 0.004309 0.001240 0.000620 0.000620 0.093100
llf.2000 0.002650 0.001533 0.000590 0.000364 0.000427 0.000278 0.000080 0.000040 0.000040 0.006000;
* Correction of decimal point error.
OGGLIM("slf","2000",rg) = OGGLIM("slf","2000",rg)/1000;
OGGLIM("llf","2000",rg) = OGGLIM("llf","2000",rg)/1000;
* Ogglim based on 2000 emissions and extrapolation of Kyoto reduction factors for Annex B.
ogglim(ogg,pp,rg) = inf;
ogglim(ogg,pp,"world") = sum(rg, ogglim(ogg,pp,rg));
DISPLAY ogglim;
*==>$include "tables\SHARES.TAB"
$ontext
The 2000 shares are proportional to 2000 regional emissions.
The 2050 shares (and thereafter) are proportional to 2000 populations.
The shares between 2000 and 2050 are determined by linear interpolation.
Shares sum to unity in each period.
$offtext
PARAMETERS
*sh(tp,rg) shares in global carbon emissions;
sh( *, *) shares in global carbon emissions;
sh("2000",rg) = carlim("sw1","2000",rg)/sum(r,carlim("sw1","2000",r));
sh("2050",rg) = pop("2000",rg)/sum(r, pop("2000",r));
sh("2010",rg) = .8*sh("2000",rg) + .2*sh("2050",rg);
sh("2020",rg) = .6*sh("2000",rg) + .4*sh("2050",rg);
sh("2030",rg) = .4*sh("2000",rg) + .6*sh("2050",rg);
sh("2040",rg) = .2*sh("2000",rg) + .8*sh("2050",rg);
sh("2060",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2070",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2080",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2090",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2100",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2110",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2120",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2130",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2140",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2150",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2160",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2170",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2180",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2190",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh("2200",rg) = sh("2050",rg);
sh(tp,"world") = sum(rg, sh(tp,rg));
display sh;
*==>$include "tables\NELE.TAB"
*----------------------------- NELE.TAB ------------------------------*
* This data file contains the nonelectric energy parameter values.
*TABLE FOS(nt,rg) FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION IN 2000 - QUADS AND EXAJ
TABLE FOS(* , *) FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION IN 2000 - QUADS AND EXAJ
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
oil-1 43.3 30.4 12.2 6.8 11.5 10.6 4.7 14.7 35.2 169.2
gas-1 23.5 14.6 2.8 4.3 23.0 1.0 0.8 8.2 10.7 88.7
coal 22.8 11.7 3.4 4.4 17.0 26.9 7.5 0.6 13.0 107.4
;
FOS("carbcal",rg) = CECN("gas",rg) * FOS("gas-1",rg)
+ CECN("oil",rg) * FOS("oil-1",rg)
+ CECN("cldu",rg) * FOS("coal ",rg);
FOS("carbcal","world") = SUM(rg, FOS("carbcal",rg));
FOS("carblim",rg) = CARLIM("sw1","2000",rg);
FOS("carblim","world") = SUM(rg, FOS("carblim",rg));
FOS("carbcor",rg) = FOS("carblim",rg)/FOS("carbcal",rg);
FOS("carbcor","world") = SUM(rg, FOS("carblim",rg))/
SUM(rg, FOS("carbcal",rg));
FOS("carbdif",rg) = FOS("carblim",rg)-FOS("carbcal",rg);
FOS("carbdif","world") = SUM(rg, FOS("carblim",rg)) -
SUM(rg, FOS("carbcal",rg));
DISPLAY "CARBCAL based on calculation from individual fuels; CARBLIM is total from ghg.tab."
DISPLAY "CARBCOR is ratio of total carbon to that based on individual fuels.";
DISPLAY "CARBDIF provides rough adjustment to CLEV for the inconsistency."
DISPLAY FOS;
$ontext
Costs for the CLDU activity (direct uses of coal) includes not only fuel,
but also the differential in utilization costs between coal and oil/gas-fired
units.
See bfuel.XLS. Derived from 2050 and 2100 values specified in IIASA-WEC 1998
scenario B (base). Commercial biomass only. This is the lowest of the six
IIASA-WEC scenarios for commercial biomass. Excludes traditional noncommercial
biomass.
The synf activity includes unconventional oils such as tar sands and heavy
oils.
$offtext
*TABLE NCAP(nt,tp,rg) NONELECTRIC PRODUCTION CAPACITIES - EXAJ
TABLE NCAP(nt,*,*) NONELECTRIC PRODUCTION CAPACITIES - EXAJ
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
bfuel.2050 2.610 5.370 1.235 1.525 2.710 5.570 4.090 0.190 24.060 47.360
bfuel.2100 20.763 16.390 3.235 5.542 31.340 13.400 16.960 0.710 48.750 157.090
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
lbdn.2010 INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2020 INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbdn.2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
* To simulate IPCC SRES median scenario.
ncap("bfuel","2100",rg)=1.25*ncap("bfuel","2100",rg);
* Fossil fuel production based on net exports + consumption.
NCAP("gas-1",tbase,rg) = GASX(tbase,rg) +
FOS("gas-1",rg);
NCAP("gas-1",tbase,"japan") = 0;
NCAP("oil-1",tbase,rg) = OILX(tbase,rg) +
FOS("oil-1",rg);
NCAP("oil-1",tbase,"japan") = 0;
NCAP("coal",tbase,rg) = FOS("coal", rg);
NCAP(x,pp,rg) = inf;
NCAP("synf",pp,rg) = inf;
NCAP("neb-hc",pp,rg) = inf;
* neb-lc not available until 2070.
* Actually, in these runs neb-hc is not available at all because it is taken out in LBD.NO
NCAP("neb-lc",tp,rg) = inf;
NCAP("neb-lc",tp,rg) $ (ord(tp) le 7) = 0 ;
NCAP("bfuel","2010",rg) = .2*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2020",rg) = .4*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2030",rg) = .6*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2040",rg) = .8*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2060",rg) = .8*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg) + .2*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2070",rg) = .6*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg) + .4*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2080",rg) = .4*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg) + .6*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2090",rg) = .2*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg) + .8*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2110",rg) = 1.2*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) - .2*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2120",rg) = 1.4*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) - .4*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2130",rg) = 1.6*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) - .6*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2140",rg) = 1.8*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) - .8*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2150",rg) = 2.0*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -1.0*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2160",rg) = 2.2*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -1.2*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2170",rg) = 2.4*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -1.4*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2180",rg) = 2.6*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -1.6*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2190",rg) = 2.8*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -1.8*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP("bfuel","2200",rg) = 3.0*NCAP("bfuel","2100",rg) -2.0*NCAP("bfuel","2050",rg);
NCAP(nt,tp,"world") = SUM(rg, NCAP(nt,tp,rg));
DISPLAY NCAP;
*TABLE BCH4GAS(tp,rg) CH4 LEAKAGE PER TON OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION - MILLIONS OF TONS PER EXAJOULE
TABLE BCH4GAS(tp, *) CH4 LEAKAGE PER TON OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION - MILLIONS OF TONS PER EXAJOULE
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
2000 5.54 1.53 0.08 1.44 19.14 0.07 1.16 10.24 3.44 42.64
;
* Compute actual coefficient in 2000; U.S. drops in half by 2050; other regions interpolated.
BCH4GAS("2000",rg) = BCH4GAS("2000", rg)/FOS("gas-1",rg);
BCH4GAS(pp,rg) = BCH4GAS("2000","usa")/2;
BCH4GAS("2010",rg) = .8*BCH4GAS("2000",rg) + .2*BCH4GAS("2050",rg);
BCH4GAS("2020",rg) = .6*BCH4GAS("2000",rg) + .4*BCH4GAS("2050",rg);
BCH4GAS("2030",rg) = .4*BCH4GAS("2000",rg) + .6*BCH4GAS("2050",rg);
BCH4GAS("2040",rg) = .2*BCH4GAS("2000",rg) + .8*BCH4GAS("2050",rg);
BCH4GAS("2000","world") = 0;
DISPLAY BCH4GAS;
* To convert coefficients to BILLION tons of CH4 per exajoule, have
* modified equations wch4df in M5.VEQ. Also M5.BND and CSE.LCE.
TABLE NCST(nt,rg) NONELECTRIC COST COEFFICIENTS - $ PER GJ
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
CLDU 2.50 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
OIL-1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
OIL-2 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
OIL-3 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
OIL-4 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75
OIL-5 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
OIL-6 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
OIL-7 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
OIL-8 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
OIL-9 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
OIL-10 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
GAS-1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
GAS-2 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
GAS-3 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
GAS-4 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
GAS-5 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
GAS-6 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
GAS-7 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
GAS-8 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75
GAS-9 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
GAS-10 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
bfuel 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 8.0
synf 8.3 9.0 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3
* Non-electric backstop is set at roughly $100/barrel. As comparison, hydrogen from photovoltaics, priced
* from National Academy 2004 study page 103, is $6.18 per KG of hydrogen with .12 GJ per KG:
neb-hc 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
neb-lc 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
LBDN 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 ;
DISPLAY NCST;
parameters cstred(*) energy cost reduction factors;
cstred(tp) = 1.0 ** te(tp);
display cstred;
TABLE FRNCST(nt,*) Fraction of nonelectric cost coefficients assigned to RA and PN
frnra frnpn
cldu
oil-1 .333
oil-2 .333
oil-3 .333
oil-4 .333
oil-5 .333
oil-6 .333
oil-7 .333
oil-8 .333
oil-9 .333
oil-10 .333
gas-1 .333
gas-2 .333
gas-3 .333
gas-4 .333
gas-5 .333
gas-6 .333
gas-7 .333
gas-8 .333
gas-9 .333
gas-10 .333
bfuel
synf
neb-hc
neb-lc
lbdn
;
FRNCST(nt , "frnpn") = 1 - FRNCST(nt , "frnra");
DISPLAY FRNCST;
$ontext
RSV and RSC are base year levels of low-cost reserves and resources (exaj).
RDF measures the maximum fraction of remaining resources depleted and
converted annually into proven reserves.
For details on oil and gas reserves, see RSV.XLS. Reserves are based upon
values in BP "Statistical Review of World Energy", June 2000.
For details on oil and gas resources, see RSC.XLS and RSVGRO.XLS.
Undiscovered oil and gas resources are an optimistic scenario for the
thirty-year period 1995-2025, and are based upon F5 probability estimates,
USGS, "World Petroleum Assessment 2000". In addition, they include mean
estimates of potential reserve growth. These are split equally between the ten
resource cost categories.
$offtext
*TABLE RSV(x,rg) PROVEN RESERVES - EXAJ
TABLE RSV(x, *) PROVEN RESERVES - EXAJ
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
oil-1 171.6 123.6 58.2 392.4 144.0 28.8 4985.4 298.8 6202.8
gas-1 164.0 181.7 108.50 2002.6 48.3 22.9 2388.4 255.4 5171.8
;
*TABLE RSC(x,rg) UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES - EXAJ
TABLE RSC(x, *) UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES - EXAJ
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
oil-1 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-2 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-3 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-4 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-5 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-6 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-7 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-8 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-9 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
oil-10 108.1 55.8 20.9 231.3 30.1 5.5 793.6 287.9 1533.2
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
gas-1 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-2 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-3 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-4 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-5 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-6 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-7 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-8 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-9 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
gas-10 108.7 89.0 34.1 473.1 22.2 7.9 509.3 188.6 1432.9
;
* Source: Vello Kuuskraa, June 28, 2001, Table 2B - high (F5 scenario):
rsv("oil-1", "usa") = 166;
rsv("gas-1", "usa") = 181;
rsc("oil-1", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-2", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-3", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-4", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-5", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-6", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-7", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-8", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-9", "usa") = 143.8;
rsc("oil-10","usa") = 143.8;
rsc("gas-1", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-2", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-3", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-4", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-5", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-6", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-7", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-8", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-9", "usa") = 223.3;
rsc("gas-10","usa") = 223.3;
*TABLE PRV(x,rg) UPPER BOUNDS ON PRODUCTION-RESERVE RATIOS
TABLE PRV(x, *) UPPER BOUNDS ON PRODUCTION-RESERVE RATIOS
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
coal 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010
oil-1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-2 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-3 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-4 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-5 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-6 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-7 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-8 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-9 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
oil-10 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
gas-1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-2 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-3 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-4 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-5 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-6 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-7 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-8 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-9 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
gas-10 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050
;
TABLE RDF(x,rg) UPPER BOUNDS ON RESOURCE DEPLETION FACTORS
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
coal 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100
oil-1 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-2 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-3 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-4 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-5 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-6 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-7 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-8 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-9 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
oil-10 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
gas-1 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-2 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-3 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-4 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-5 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-6 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-7 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-8 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-9 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
gas-10 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
;
$ontext
No distinction between coal production and consumption. This implies
negligible interregional coal trade.
Regional distribution of coal reserves: proportional to 2000 consumption,
Coal reserves are equal to 100 years' worth of consumption in 2000.
Coal resources are also proportional to each region's consumption in 2000.
Total of 300,000 exajoules for coal RSV + RSC.
$offtext
RSV("coal", rg) = 100*FOS("coal",rg);
RSC("coal", rg) = 300*1000*RSV("coal", rg)/
SUM(r, RSV("coal", r));
RSC("coal", rg) = RSC("coal", rg)
- RSV("coal", RG);
RSV(x,"world") = SUM(rg, RSV(x, rg));
RSC(x,"world") = SUM(rg, RSC(x, rg));
OPTION DECIMALS = 3;
DISPLAY RSV, RSC, PRV, RDF;
$ontext
The following scalars are all related to the LBDN nonelectric technology.
Must make a thoughtful choice of cpn0. Compare with CPN(t) results. Adopted
IIASA "anchor value" for lrn = -.3219. This implies 20% learning rate for each
doubling of CPN.
$offtext
SCALARS
inlcn initial learning cost - $ per GJ
cpn0 initial cumulative production - GJ
lrnn learning parameter;
inlcn = 6.0;
cpn0 = 1.0;
lrnn = -.3219;
*==>$include "tables\ELEC.TAB"
*----------------------------- ELEC.TAB ------------------------------*
* This data file contains the electric energy parameter values.
* First, we estimate fossil fuel mix in 2000. Then derive cldu.
$ontext
Changes from June 23, 2006 -- Applied ban on introduction of NUC-N
in non-annexb until 2040.
Totelec and hydro from weo-2002.xls
nuc-r from ieo-2004.xls
From these quantities, we derive fossil.
coal-r, oil-r, and gas-r are 2000 shares in total electricity generation.
Source of percentages: 2002 World Energy Outlook, IEA, pp. 410-492
usa based on US and Canada
canz based on US and Canada
weur based on OECD Europe
japan based on JANZ
eefsu based on Transition Economies
china based on China
india based on India
oilex based on Middle East
row based on Developing Countries
cldu derived from total coal consumption and coal consumed in electricity
generation - exaj
$offtext
*TABLE ELGEN(*,rg) ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2000 - TKWH
TABLE ELGEN(*, *) ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2000 - TKWH
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
totelec 4.087 3.164 1.101 .749 1.484 1.387 .542 .666 2.210 15.391
nuc-r .754 .845 .294 .069 .270 .016 .014 .008 .165 2.434
hydro .575 .538 .068 .094 .295 .222 .074 .049 .736 2.650
fossil
coal-r 48 30 31 48 23 78 77 5 44
oil-r 3 6 12 3 6 3 1 42 13
gas-r 14 16 21 14 34 1 5 49 15
fshr
check
cldu
;
* For consistency with world value of "Selected Energy Indicators for 2000".
elgen("totelec",rg) = elgen("totelec",rg) * 14.114 /
elgen("totelec","world");
elgen("totelec","world") = sum(rg, elgen("totelec",rg));
elgen("fossil",rg) = elgen("totelec",rg) - elgen("nuc-r",rg) - elgen("hydro",rg);
elgen("fshr",rg) = elgen("coal-r",rg) + elgen("oil-r",rg) + elgen("gas-r",rg);
elgen("coal-r",rg) = elgen("coal-r",rg)*elgen("fossil",rg)/elgen("fshr",rg);
elgen("oil-r",rg) = elgen("oil-r" ,rg)*elgen("fossil",rg)/elgen("fshr",rg);
elgen("gas-r",rg) = elgen("gas-r" ,rg)*elgen("fossil",rg)/elgen("fshr",rg);
elgen("check", rg) = sum(et, elgen(et,rg));
elgen("cldu",rg) = fos("coal ",rg) - elgen("coal-r", rg) * htrt("coal-r ",rg);
DISPLAY "Now these values are ready to input into ECAP table."
DISPLAY ELGEN;
*TABLE ECAP(et,tp,rg) ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITIES - NET - TKWH
TABLE ECAP(et, *, *) ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITIES - NET - TKWH
* gas-r, oil-r and coal-r taken directly from ELGEN.
* hydro based on weo-2002.xls. Constant after 2020.
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
hydro.2000 .575 .538 .068 .094 .295 .222 .074 .049 .736 2.650
hydro.2010 .596 .581 .078 .116 .324 .333 .129 .069 .962 3.188
hydro.2020 .589 .616 .078 .149 .367 .511 .171 .083 1.236 3.800
* nuc-r based on ieo-2004.xls. Constant after 2020.
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row world
nuc-r.2000 .754 .845 .294 .069 .270 .016 .014 .008 .165 2.434
nuc-r.2010 .794 .906 .369 .108 .312 .066 .046 .015 .222 2.838
nuc-r.2020 .816 .855 .426 .118 .288 .142 .066 .024 .296 3.032
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
gas-n.2010 1.0 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
gas-n.2020 2.0 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
wind-lc.2010 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
wind-lc.2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
coal-ncs.2010
coal-ncs.2020 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
coal-ncs.2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
nuc-n.2010
nuc-n.2020 INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2030 INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
nuc-n.2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
* usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
lbde.2010 INF INF INF INF
lbde.2020 INF INF INF INF
lbde.2030 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2040 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2050 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2060 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2070 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2080 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2090 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2100 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2110 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2120 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2130 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2140 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2150 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2160 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2170 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2180 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2190 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
lbde.2200 INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF INF
;
* Include a decline constraint, in essence, on remaining coal electricity.
* Question LEC 050706: What happens to coal-r after 2040? Why can't you add more? Perhaps an expansion constraint somewhere.
ECAP("coal-r",tbase,rg) = ELGEN("coal-r",rg);
ECAP("coal-r","2010",rg) = 1.0 * ELGEN("coal-r",rg);
ECAP("coal-r","2020",rg) = 1.0 * ELGEN("coal-r",rg);
ECAP("coal-r","2030",rg) = 0.5 * ELGEN("coal-r",rg);
ECAP("coal-r","2040",rg) = 0.25* ELGEN("coal-r",rg);
* Assume that retrofit of existing electric w/CCS is paced.
* No coal-rcsin the base year (2000).
ECAP("coal-rcs",tbase,rg) = 0;
ECAP("coal-rcs","2010",rg) = 0;
ECAP("coal-rcs","2020",rg) = 0.50 * ECAP("coal-r","2020",rg);
ECAP("coal-rcs","2030",rg) = ECAP("coal-r","2030",rg);
ECAP("coal-rcs","2040",rg) = ECAP("coal-r","2040",rg);
ECAP("oil-r " ,tbase,rg) = ELGEN("oil-r ",rg);
ECAP("gas-r " ,tbase,rg) = ELGEN("gas-r ",rg);
ECAP("gas-r " ,"2010",rg) = ELGEN("gas-r ",rg);
ECAP("gas-r " ,"2020",rg) = 0.5 * ELGEN("gas-r ",rg);
ECAP("hydro",tp20,rg) = ECAP("hydro", "2020",RG);
ECAP("nuc-r",tp20,rg) = ECAP("nuc-r", "2020",RG);
ECAP("gas-n",tp30,rg) = INF;
ECAP("gas-ncs",tp20,rg) = INF;
ECAP("coal-n",pp,rg) = INF;
ECAP("coal-n",pp,"weur") = .400;
ECAP("wind-hc",tp10,rg) = INF;
DISPLAY ECAP;
NCAP("cldu",tbase,rg) = FOS("coal ",rg)
- ECAP("coal-r", tbase, rg) * HTRT("coal-r ",rg);
NCAP("cldu",tbase,rg) = max(0, NCAP("cldu",tbase,rg));
$ontext
Costs of gas-r and coal-r are half those of gas-n and coal-n.
Costs of oil-r identical to those of gas-r.
Checked costs of other technologies against those of SFA.XLS.
RGR specified costs of coal-n and lbde.
$offtext
*TABLE ECST(et,rg) ELECTRICITY COST COEFFICIENTS - MILLS PER KWH
TABLE ECST(et, *) ELECTRICITY COST COEFFICIENTS - MILLS PER KWH
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
hydro 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
nuc-r 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
gas-r 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
gas-n 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
gas-ncs 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
oil-r 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
coal-r 20.0 27.5 27.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
coal-n 40.0 47.5 47.5 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
coal-ncs 55.0 62.5 62.5 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0
wind-lc 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
wind-hc 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0
nuc-n 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
lbde 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
;
* Assume a levelized cost for coal-rcsthat is based on coal-r.
ECST("coal-rcs",RG) = ECST("coal-r",RG) + 15;
TABLE QECST(et,rg) QUADRATIC ELECTRICITY COST COEFFICIENTS - MILLS PER KWH
* Denotes additional cost of PE variables when PE is at ECAP bound.
* Reduces likelihood of penny-switching behavior.
usa weur japan canz eefsu china india oilex row
gas-n 10
$ontext
gas-r and oil-r refer, respectively, to remaining oil and gas-fired
plants. To avoid double counting of fuel inputs, their cost coefficients
include only O&M and a portion of capital costs . Other activities include
fuel, O&M and levelized capital costs.
The following scalars are all related to the lbde electric technology.
Must make a thoughtful choice of cpe0. Compare with CPE(t) results. Adopted
IIASA "anchor value" for lrn = -.3219. This implies 20% learning rate for each
doubling of CPE.
$offtext
SCALARS
inlce initial learning cost - $ per thousand kwh
cpe0 initial cumulative production - tkwh
lrne learning parameter;
inlce = 50;
cpe0 = 1;
lrne = -.3219;
*==>$include "tables\NUC.TAB"
parameter sigma_wtp Elasticity of NM cost to nuclear share /1.0/,
wtp0 Referece non-market cost of nuclear /10/,
refshr(rg) Reference nuclear share;
* Calibrate external cost of nuclear power to base year
* nuclear share in the Annex-B countries. Assume that
* wtp in non-annexb is lower initially but will be idential
* to that of the US when nuclear share reaches equivalent
* levels.
refshr(anb) = ecap("nuc-r","2000",anb)/sum(et,ecap(et,"2000",anb));
refshr(nanb) = refshr("usa");
*==>$include "M5.PAR"
*------------------------------- M5.PAR ------------------------------*
* This section of the code contains the parameter definitions and
* assignments.
SCALARS
LOTOL TOLERANCE FACTOR FOR LOWER BOUNDS ON MACRO VARIABLES / 0.1/
EXAJTOMT CONVERSION FACTOR FROM EXAJ TO MTOE /22.3/;
PARAMETERS
I0(RG) INITIAL INVESTMENT
C0(RG) INITIAL CONSUMPTION
K0(RG) INITIAL CAPITAL
E0(RG) INITIAL ELECTRIC ENERGY
N0(RG) INITIAL NON-ELECTRIC ENERGY
Y0(RG) INITIAL OUTPUT
RHO(RG) ESUB MINUS ONE DIVIDED BY ESUB
ACONST(TP,RG) CONSTANT FOR CAPITAL-LABOR INDEX
BCONST(TP,RG) CONSTANT FOR ELECTRIC-NON-ELECTRIC ENERGY INDEX
WTP(RG,TP,SW) FRACTIONAL GDP LOSS FOR WTPTEMP AT ALL INCOMES
HSX(RG,TP,SW) HOCKEY-STICK EXPONENT
KGDP(RG) INITIAL CAPITAL-GDP RATIO
DEPR(RG) ANNUAL PERCENT DEPRECIATION
SPDA(RG) SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT
SPEED(TP,RG) PERIOD ADJUSTMENT SPEED
PNREF(RG) REFERENCE PRICE OF NON-ELECTRIC ENERGY - DOLLARS PER GJ
PEREF(RG) REFERENCE PRICE OF ELECTRIC ENERGY - MILLS PER KWH
ESUB(RG) ELASTICITY BETWEEN K-L AND E-N
KPVS(RG) CAPITAL VALUE SHARE PARAMETER
ELVS(RG) ELECTRIC VALUE SHARE PARAMETER
XNTAX(RG) EXISTING TAX RATE ON NONELECTRIC ENERGY
XETAX(RG) EXISTING TAX RATE ON ELECTRIC ENERGY
DECF(RG) MAX DECLINE FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR PE-DL - SYNF - NE-BAK
NSHF(RG) MAX MARKET SHARE FACTOR FOR EX AND NX TECHNOLOGIES
EXPF(RG) MAX EXPANSION FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR XLE TECHNOLOGIES
NXPF(RG) MAX EXPANSION FACTOR (ANNUAL) FOR XLN TECHNOLOGIES
OGPD(RG) OIL-GAS PRICE DIFFERENTIAL - DOLLARS PER GJ
CLGDP(RG) COAL-GNP GROWTH ELASTICITY
DFACTCURR(TP,RG) CURRENT ANNUAL UTILITY DISCOUNT FACTOR
UDF(TP,RG) UTILITY DISCOUNT FACTOR FOR PERIOD TP
UDFSUM(RG) UDF NORMALIZING CONSTANT
L(TP,RG) CURRENT LABOR FORCE (EFFICIENCY UNITS)
LN(TP,RG) LABOR FORCE - NEW VINTAGE
KL(TP,RG) CAPITAL-LABOR INDEX
YREF(TP,RG) REFERENCE VALUE OF GROSS OUTPUT
KREF(TP,RG) REFERENCE VALUE OF CAPITAL
YCHK(TP,RG) CHECK VALUE OF GROSS OUTPUT
EREF(TP,RG) REFERENCE QUANTITY OF ELECTRICITY - TKWH
NREF(TP,RG) REFERENCE QUANTITY OF NONELECTRIC ENERGY
AEEIFAC(TP,RG) AEEI FACTOR
PVPI(TRD,TP,SW) PRESENT VALUE PRICES OF TRADEABLES
FTPI(SW,TRD,TP) FUTURE VALUE PRICES OF TRADEABLES
NWT(RG) NEGISHI WEIGHTS
NWTITR(ITER,RG) NEGISHI WEIGHTS AT EACH ITERATION
TAXREV(RG,TP,SW) ENERGY TAX REVENUES FOR EACH REGION
TAXITR(RG,TP,ITER,SW) TAX REVENUES AT EACH ITERATION;
$ontext
Willing to pay 1% of GDP to avoid WTPTEMP at $25 K per capita.
.1842 = - ln (.01)/25.
$offtext
WTP(RG,TP,SW) =
WTPLOSS(SW)/ ( 1 + 100*EXP(-0.1842*PCGDP(TP,RG)));
HSX(RG,TP,SW)$(CATT(RG,SW) LT INF) = LOG(1- WTP(RG,TP,SW))/
LOG(1- (WTPTEMP(SW)/CATT(RG,SW))**2);
* UPPER BOUND ON HOCKEY STICK EXPONENTIAL TO AVOID POTENTIAL NON-CONVEXITIES
HSX(RG,TP,SW) = MIN(HSX(RG,TP,SW),1.000);
DISPLAY CATT, WTP, HSX;
NWT(RG) = POTGDP("2000",RG) / SUM(R, POTGDP("2000",R));
NWT(RG) = MACRO("NW",RG);
DISPLAY NWT;
NWTITR("IT0",RG) = NWT(RG);
DISPLAY NWTITR;
KGDP(RG) = MACRO("KGDP", RG);
DEPR(RG) = MACRO("DEPR", RG);
PNREF(RG) = MACRO("PNREF", RG);
ESUB(RG) = MACRO("ESUB", RG);
KPVS(RG) = MACRO("KPVS", RG);
ELVS(RG) = MACRO("ELVS", RG);
XNTAX(RG) = MACRO("XNTAX", RG);
XETAX(RG) = MACRO("XETAX", RG);
DECF(RG) = MACRO("DECF", RG);
NSHF(RG) = MACRO("NSHF",RG);
EXPF(RG) = MACRO("EXPF", RG);
NXPF(RG) = MACRO("NXPF", RG);
CLGDP(RG) = MACRO("CLGDP", RG);
OGPD(RG) = MACRO("OGPD", RG);
AEEIFAC("2000",RG) = 1;
LOOP(TP,
AEEIFAC(TP+1,RG) = ( (1 - AEEI(TP,RG)) ** NYPER(TP) ) * AEEIFAC(TP,RG)
);
DISPLAY AEEIFAC;
* Intertemporal optimality condition is applied to calculate each period's
* annual utility discount factor individually.
DFACTCURR(TP,RG) = 1 - MPC(TP) + GROW(TP,RG);
K0(RG) = KGDP(RG)*POTGDP("2000",RG);
SPDA(RG) = 1 - DEPR(RG)/100;
SPEED(TP,RG) = SPDA(RG)**NYPER(TP);
RHO(RG) = (ESUB(RG) - 1)/ESUB(RG);
TAXREV(RG,TP,SW) = 0;
LOOP(TBASE,
E0(RG) = SUM(ET, ECAP(ET,TBASE,RG));
N0(RG) = SUM(NT, NCAP(NT,TBASE,RG))
- NCAP("COAL",TBASE, RG)
- HTRT("OIL-R",RG)*ECAP("OIL-R",TBASE,RG)
- HTRT("GAS-R",RG)*ECAP("GAS-R",TBASE,RG)
- HTRT("GAS-N",RG)*ECAP("GAS-N",TBASE,RG)
- OILX(TBASE,RG) - GASX(TBASE,RG);
I0(RG) = POTGDP(TBASE,RG) * KGDP(RG) * (GROW(TBASE,RG) + (DEPR(RG)/100));
C0(RG) = POTGDP(TBASE,RG) - I0(RG) ;
Y0(RG) = I0(RG) + C0(RG)
+ ( SUM(ET, ECAP(ET,TBASE,RG)*ECST(ET,RG))
- OILX(TBASE,RG) * MACRO("INTPR",RG)
- GASX(TBASE,RG) * MACRO("INTPR",RG)
+ SUM(NT, NCAP(NT,TBASE,RG)*NCST(NT,RG))
)/1000;
);
PEREF(RG) = ELVS(RG) * PNREF(RG) * N0(RG)/((1-ELVS(RG))*E0(RG));
DISPLAY Y0, PEREF;
LOOP(TP,NCAP("CLDU",TP+1,RG) =
NCAP("CLDU",TP,RG)*(( 1 + (GROW(TP,RG)*CLGDP(RG)) )**NYPER(TP))
);
NCAP("CLDU",TP50,RG) = NCAP("CLDU","2050",RG);
DISPLAY ECAP, NCAP;
UDF(TBASE,RG) = 1;
L(TBASE,RG) = 1;
LOOP(TP,
L(TP+1,RG) = L(TP,RG)*(1 + GROW(TP,RG))**NYPER(TP) ;
LN(TP+1,RG) = L(TP+1,RG) - L(TP,RG)*SPDA(RG)**NYPER(TP) ;
UDF(TP+1,RG) = UDF(TP,RG)*DFACTCURR(TP,RG)**NYPER(TP)
);
KREF(TP,RG) = L(TP,RG) * K0(RG);
EREF(TP,RG) = L(TP,RG) * E0(RG) * AEEIFAC(TP,RG);
NREF(TP,RG) = L(TP,RG) * N0(RG) * AEEIFAC(TP,RG);
display L, POTGDP, PEREF, EREF, PNREF, NREF;
YREF(TP,RG) = L(TP,RG) * POTGDP("2000",RG)
+ (PEREF(RG)*EREF(TP,RG)
+ PNREF(RG)*NREF(TP,RG))/1000;
DISPLAY E0, N0, EREF, NREF, YREF;
* Implied by first-order optimality conditions.
BCONST(TP,RG) = (PNREF(RG)/1000)*YREF(TP,RG)**(RHO(RG) - 1) /
((1 - ELVS(RG))*(EREF(TP,RG)**(RHO(RG)*ELVS(RG)))
*(NREF(TP,RG)**(RHO(RG)*(1 - ELVS(RG)) - 1)));
* Implied by exhaustion-of-product conditions.
ACONST(TP,RG) = (EREF(TP,RG)**ELVS(RG)) * (NREF(TP,RG)**(1-ELVS(RG)));
ACONST(TP,RG) = YREF(TP,RG)**RHO(RG)
- BCONST(TP,RG)*ACONST(TP,RG)**RHO(RG);
KL(TP,RG) = KREF(TP,RG)**(rho(rg)*kpvs(rg))*L(tp,rg)**(rho(rg)*(1 - kpvs(rg)));
ACONST(TP,RG) = ACONST(TP,RG)/KL(TP,RG);
YCHK(TP,RG) = (EREF(TP,RG)**ELVS(RG)) * (NREF(TP,RG)**(1-ELVS(RG)));
YCHK(TP,RG) = BCONST(TP,RG) * YCHK(TP,RG)**RHO(RG);
YCHK(TP,RG) = ACONST(TP,RG)*KL(TP,RG) + YCHK(TP,RG);
YCHK(TP,RG) = YCHK(TP,RG)**(1/RHO(RG));
OPTION DECIMALS = 6;
DISPLAY KL, ACONST, BCONST, YREF, YCHK;
* Arbitrary multiplier on utility in last time period.
UDF(TLAST,RG) = UDF(TLAST,RG) * ARBM;
OPTION DECIMALS = 3;
DISPLAY UDF;
*UDF("2005",RG) = .5 * UDF("2005",RG);
*UDF("2010",RG) = .5 * UDF("2010",RG);
*UDF("2015",RG) = .5 * UDF("2015",RG);
UDFSUM(RG) = SUM(PP, UDF(PP,RG));
UDF(TBASE,RG) = 0.0;
UDF(PP,RG) = UDF(PP,RG)/UDFSUM(RG);
DISPLAY "UDF VALUES - AFTER NORMALIZATION AND CORRECTION FOR PERIOD LENGTH";
DISPLAY UDF, L;
*==>$include "M5.VEQ"
*----------------------------------- M5.VEQ -------------------------------*
* This section of the code contains the variable and equation definitions.
* Upper case letters denote decision variables. Except for stock variables,
* these represent annual rates. Unit: trillion 2000 dollars unless indicated
* otherwise.
* This version of MERGE includes "sw" (state of world) indexes, but excludes
* "locking" constraints for hedging strategies.
POSITIVE VARIABLES
K(rg,tp,sw) capital stock
KN(rg,tp,sw) new capital stock
Y(rg,tp,sw) production
YN(rg,tp,sw) new production
E(rg,tp,sw) electric energy
EN(rg,tp,sw) new electric energy
N(rg,tp,sw) non-electric energy
NN(rg,tp,sw) new non-electric energy
PE(et,*,rg,sw) production of electric energy - tkwh
CPE(tp,sw) cumulative global production of lbde - electric energy - tkwh
CPN(tp,sw) cumulative global production of lbdn - nonelectric energy - exaj
PN(nt,tp,rg,sw) production of nonelectric energy - exaj
GASNON(tp,rg,sw) gas consumed to meet nonelectric demands
OILNON(tp,rg,sw) oil consumed to meet nonelectric demands
URSC(rg,x,tp,sw) undiscovered resources
PRSV(rg,x,tp,sw) proven reserves
RA(rg,x,tp,sw) reserve additions
C(rg,tp,sw) consumption - trillion dollars
I(rg,tp,sw) investment - trillion dollars
CLEV(tp,rg,sw) carbon emissions level - billion tons
DC(rg,tp,sw) delay carbon utilization - billion tons
CRLX(tp,rg,sw) carbon limit relaxation - billion tons
ORLX(ogg,tp,rg,sw) ogg limit relaxation - billion tce
ABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,sw)
greenhouse gas abatement - billion tce
AFF(sy,ps,sw) afforestation scenario - fraction adopted
EXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw) exports
EM(ghg,tp,sw) world energy-related emissions - billion tons
TOTEM(ghg,tp,sw) total world emissions (energy and non-energy less abatement)
CO2(box,tp,sw) stock of CO2 in each box at time tp
S(ghg,tp,sw) atmospheric stock of each greenhouse gas
SMINUS(ghg,tp,sw) atmospheric stock of each greenhouse gas minus equilibrium stock
PT(tp,sw) potential temperature increase from 1750
ATP(tp,sw) actual temperature increase from 2000
ELF(rg,tp,sw) economic loss factor
MD(rg,tp,sw) market damages - trillion dollars;
VARIABLES
NWEL negishi welfare
EC(rg,tp,sw) energy cost - trillion dollars
NTX(trd,tp,rg,sw) net exports;
$ontext
Global Negishi welfare is a weighted sum of the discounted logarithm of
macroeconomic consumption, adjusted for the economic losses generated by non-
market damages. The parameter catt defines the region-specific value of
the catastrophic level of temperature. The parameter hsx modifies the
quadratic loss function so as to allow for a hockey-stick shape.
In the Pareto-optimal case, nonmarket damages enter the Negishi welfare
definition, and market damages represent one of the competing claims on the
allocation of total production resources. In all other cases, nonmarket
and market damages are excluded from the determination of the equilibrium,
but are determined in a post-optimization step. In this way, we allow for
the possibility of non-cooperation or of non-optimal international control
agreements.
$offtext
EQUATIONS
* Locking constraints:
LKK(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for K
LKKN(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for KN
LKY(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for Y
LKYN(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for YN
LKE(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for E
LKEN(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for EN
LKN(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for N
LKNN(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for NN
LKPE(et,tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for PE
LKCPE(tp,sw) locking constraints for CPE
LKCPN(tp,sw) locking constraints for CPN
LKPN(nt,tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for PN
LKGASNON(tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for GASNON
LKOILNON(tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for OILNON
LKURSC(rg,x,tp,sw) locking constraints for URSC
LKPRSV(rg,x,tp,sw) locking constraints for PRSV
LKRA(rg,x,tp,sw) locking constraints for RA
LKC(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for C
LKI(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for I
LKCLEV(tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for CLEV
LKDC(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for DC
LKCRLX(tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for CRLX
LKABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for ABATE
LKAFF(sy,ps,sw) locking constraints for AFF
LKEXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for EXPRT
LKATP(tp,sw) locking constraints for ATP
LKELF(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for ELF
LKMD(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for MD
LKEC(rg,tp,sw) locking constraints for EC
LKNTX(trd,tp,rg,sw) locking constraints for NTX
LKEM(ghg,tp,sw) locking constraints for EM
LKTOTEM(ghg,tp,sw) locking constraints for TOTEM
LKCO2(box,tp,sw) locking constraints for CO2
LKS(ghg,tp,sw) locking constraints for S
LKSM(ghg,tp,sw) locking constraints for SMINUS
LKPT(tp,sw) locking constraints for PT
* MACRO submodel:
nweldf negishi welfare definition
newcap(rg,tp,sw) new capital
newprod(rg,tp,sw) new production
newelec(rg,tp,sw) new electric energy
newnon(rg,tp,sw) new non-electric energy
totalcap(rg,tp,sw) total capital stock
totalprod(rg,tp,sw) total production
tc(rg,tp,sw) terminal condition on investment and capital stock
* ETA submodel:
supelec(*,*,sw) supply of electricity
supnon(*,*,sw) supply of non-electric energy
supgas(*,*,sw) supply of gas
supoil(*,*,sw) supply of oil
supcoal(*,*,sw) supply of coal
supcoal_r(*,*,sw) supply of coal-r and coal-rcs
bfuelfrac(rg,tp,sw) bfuel fraction of nonelectric energy - biomass
synffrac(rg,tp,sw) synf fraction of nonelectric energy
gfrac(rg,tp,sw) gas fraction of nonelectric energy
egfrac(rg,tp,sw) gas fraction of electric energy
ecfrac(rg,tp,sw) coal-n fraction of electric energy
ecfrac2(rg,tp,sw) coal-n and coal-ncs combined cannot exceed any coal-n caps
coalafrac(rg,tp,sw) wind-lc fraction of electric energy
*. advfrac(rg,tp,sw) nuc-n - fraction of electric energy supplied by nuc-rlear
ccsfrac(rg,tp,sw) ccs - fraction of electric energy supplied by coal-ncs
costnrg(rg,tp,sw) cost of energy
cc(rg,tp,sw) capacity constraint
trdbal(tp,trd,sw) global trade balance
ntdef(trd,tp,rg,sw) triggers definition of positive exports
dece(rg,tp,dle,sw) decline rate of dle technologies
decn(rg,tp,dln,sw) decline rate of dln technologies
deco(rg,tp,sw) decline rate of oilnon
decg(rg,tp,sw) decline rate of gasnon
expe(rg,tp,xle,sw) expansion rate of xle technologies
expg(rg,tp,sw) expansion rate of xlg technologies
expn(rg,tp,xln,sw) expansion rate of xln technologies
cpedf(tp,sw) cumulative global production of lbde - electric energy
cpndf(tp,sw) cumulative global production of lbdn - nonelectric energy
rscav(rg,tp,x,sw) undiscovered resources available
rsvav(rg,tp,x,sw) proven reserves available
rdflim(rg,tp,x,sw) resource depletion limit
prvlim(rg,tp,x,sw) production-reserve limit
carlev(rg,tp,sw) carbon emissions level - billion tons
clevbd(tp,rg,sw) upper bound on annual carbon emissions
oggbd(ogg,tp,rg,sw) upper bound on annual ogg emissions
wcardf(tp,sw) definition of world energy-related co2 emissions
fracsum(sw) sum of fractional aforestation programs
nucdec(rg,tp,sw) New nuclear decline constraints
* CLIMATE submodel:
wch4df(tp,sw) definition of world energy-related ch4 emissions
totemit(ghg,tp,sw) total world emissions for each greenhouse gas
co2box(box,tp,sw) CO2 accumulation in each box
co2stock(tp,sw) atmospheric CO2 stock accumulation
ostock(ghg,tp,sw) other greenhouse gases stock accumulation
ostockm(ghg,tp,sw) other greenhouse gases stock accumulation minus equilibrium stock
ptdf(tp,sw) potential temperature definition
atdf(tp,sw) actual temperature definition
atin(tp,sw) decadal increment in actual temperature
* IMPACTS submodel:
marketd(rg,tp,sw) market damages from temperature increase
elfdf(rg,tp,sw) nonmarket damages from temperature increase;
* Locking constraints:
LKK(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. K(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= K(rg,tp,sw);
LKKN(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. KN(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= KN(rg,tp,sw);
LKY(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. Y(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= Y(rg,tp,sw);
LKYN(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. YN(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= YN(rg,tp,sw);
LKE(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. E(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= E(rg,tp,sw);
LKEN(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. EN(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= EN(rg,tp,sw);
LKN(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. N(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= N(rg,tp,sw);
LKNN(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. NN(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= NN(rg,tp,sw);
LKPE(et,tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. PE(et,tp,rg,"sw1") =e= PE(et,tp,rg,sw);
LKCPE(tp,sw)$lk(tp).. CPE(tp,"sw1") =e= CPE(tp,sw);
LKCPN(tp,sw)$lk(tp).. CPN(tp,"sw1") =e= CPN(tp,sw);
LKPN(nt,tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. PN(nt,tp,rg,"sw1") =e= PN(nt,tp,rg,sw);
LKGASNON(tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. GASNON(tp,rg,"sw1") =e= GASNON(tp,rg,sw);
LKOILNON(tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. OILNON(tp,rg,"sw1") =e= OILNON(tp,rg,sw);
LKURSC(rg,x,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. URSC(rg,x,tp,"sw1") =e= URSC(rg,x,tp,sw);
LKPRSV(rg,x,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. PRSV(rg,x,tp,"sw1") =e= PRSV(rg,x,tp,sw);
LKRA(rg,x,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. RA(rg,x,tp,"sw1") =e= RA(rg,x,tp,sw);
LKC(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. C(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= C(rg,tp,sw);
LKI(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. I(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= I(rg,tp,sw);
LKCLEV(tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. CLEV(tp,rg,"sw1") =e= CLEV(tp,rg,sw);
LKDC(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. DC(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= DC(rg,tp,sw);
LKCRLX(tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp).. CRLX(tp,rg,"sw1") =e= CRLX(tp,rg,sw);
LKABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp)..
ABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,"sw1") =e= ABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,sw);
LKAFF(sy,ps,sw)$lk(sy).. AFF(sy,ps,"sw1") =e= AFF(sy,ps,sw);
LKEXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp)..
EXPRT(trd,tp,rg,"sw1") =e= EXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw);
LKATP(tp,sw)$lk(tp).. ATP(tp,"sw1") =e= ATP(tp,sw);
LKELF(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. ELF(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= ELF(rg,tp,sw);
LKMD(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. MD(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= MD(rg,tp,sw);
LKEC(rg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. EC(rg,tp,"sw1") =e= EC(rg,tp,sw);
LKNTX(trd,tp,rg,sw)$lk(tp)..
NTX(trd,tp,rg,"sw1") =e= NTX(trd,tp,rg,sw);
LKEM(ghg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. EM(ghg,tp,"sw1") =e= EM(ghg,tp,sw);
LKTOTEM(ghg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. TOTEM(ghg,tp,"sw1") =e= TOTEM(ghg,tp,sw);
LKCO2(box,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. CO2(box,tp,"sw1") =e= CO2(box,tp,sw);
LKS(ghg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. S(ghg,tp,"sw1") =e= S(ghg,tp,sw);
LKSM(ghg,tp,sw)$lk(tp).. SMINUS(ghg,tp,"sw1") =e= SMINUS(ghg,tp,sw);
LKPT(tp,sw)$lk(tp).. PT(tp,"sw1") =e= PT(tp,sw);
$ontext
There is a putty-clay (nested CES) formulation of substitution between new
capital, labor, electric and nonelectric energy in the production of the
composite output good. In the case of old vintages, there is no substitution.
New capital at time tp+1 is a distributed lag function of the investments made
in year tp and tp+1. This equation allows for varying the length of each period.
In most periods, nyper(tp) = 10.
$offtext
newcap(rg,tp+1,sw) $(tperly(tp) and st(tp+1,sw))..
KN(rg,tp+1,sw)-.5*nyper(tp)*I(rg,tp+1,sw) =e=
.5*nyper(tp) * speed(tp,rg)*I(rg,tp ,sw);
newprod(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw).. YN(rg,pp,sw) =l=
(aconst(pp,rg)*KN(rg,pp,sw)**(rho(rg)*kpvs(rg))
*ln(pp,rg)**(rho(rg)*(1 - kpvs(rg)))
+ bconst(pp,rg)*EN(rg,pp,sw)**(rho(rg)*elvs(rg))
*NN(rg,pp,sw)**(rho(rg)*(1 - elvs(rg))))**(1/rho(rg));
newelec(rg,tp+1,sw) $(tperly(tp) and st(tp+1,sw))..
EN(rg,tp+1,sw) - E(rg,tp+1,sw) =e= - E(rg,tp,sw)*speed(tp,rg);
newnon(rg,tp+1,sw) $(tperly(tp) and st(tp+1,sw))..
NN(rg,tp+1,sw) - N(rg,tp+1,sw) =e= - N(rg,tp,sw)*speed(tp,rg);
totalcap(rg,tp+1,sw) $ (tperly(tp) and st(tp+1,sw))..
K(rg,tp+1,sw) - KN(rg,tp+1,sw) =e= K(rg,tp,sw)*speed(tp,rg);
totalprod(rg,tp+1,sw) $(tperly(tp) and st(tp+1,sw))..
Y(rg,tp+1,sw) - YN(rg,tp+1,sw) =e= Y(rg,tp,sw)*speed(tp,rg);
tc(rg,tlast,sw)..
I(rg,tlast,sw) =g=
(K(rg,tlast,sw) * (grow(tlast,rg) + (1 - spda(rg))));
$ontext
The following equations provide one set of links between the MACRO and the ETA
submodels. The left-hand side defines the supplies, and the right-hand
side the demands for electricity, nonelectric energy, natural gas, oil and
coal, respectively.
$offtext
supelec(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
sum(et, PE(et,pp,rg,sw)) =g=
E(rg,pp,sw);
supnon(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PN("cldu",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("synf",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("bfuel",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("neb-hc",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("neb-lc",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("lbdn",pp,rg,sw)
+ OILNON(pp,rg,sw)
+ GASNON(pp,rg,sw) =g=
N(rg,pp,sw);
$ontext
The demands for gas and oil include an allowance for net exports. They also
include an allowance for fuel consumption (the heat rate coefficients) in the
electric power sector.
$offtext
supgas(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
sum(gasc, PN(gasc,pp,rg,sw)) =g=
htrt("gas-r",rg) * PE("gas-r",pp,rg,sw)
+ htrt("gas-n",rg) * PE("gas-n",pp,rg,sw)
+ htrt("gas-ncs",rg) * PE("gas-ncs",pp,rg,sw)
+ GASNON(pp,rg,sw)
+ NTX("gas",pp,rg,sw);
supoil(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
sum(oilc, PN(oilc,pp,rg,sw)) =g=
htrt("oil-r",rg) * PE("oil-r",pp,rg,sw)
+ OILNON(pp,rg,sw)
+ NTX("oil",pp,rg,sw);
supcoal(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PN("coal",pp,rg,sw) =e=
htrt("coal-r",rg) * PE("coal-r",pp,rg,sw)
+ htrt("coal-rcs",rg) * PE("coal-rcs",pp,rg,sw)
+ htrt("coal-n",rg) * PE("coal-n",pp,rg,sw)
+ htrt("coal-ncs ",rg) * PE("coal-ncs ",pp,rg,sw)
+ PN("cldu",pp,rg,sw)
+ (1 + syntpe) * PN("synf",pp,rg,sw);
* Natural gas is limited to supplying 50% of the nonelectric energy market.
gfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
GASNON(pp,rg,sw) =l= .5 * N(rg,pp,sw);
* bfuel is limited to supplying 50% of the non electric energy market.
bfuelfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PN("bfuel",pp,rg,sw) =l=
.5 * N(rg,pp,sw);
* synf is limited to supplying 50% of the non electric energy market.
synffrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PN("synf",pp,rg,sw) =l=
.5 * N(rg,pp,sw);
* coal-r and coal-rcscannot exceed the total cap on coal-r. This allows for some retrofit with CCS.
supcoal_r(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("coal-r",pp,rg,sw) + PE("coal-rcs",pp,rg,sw) =L=
ECAP("coal-r",pp,rg);
* New GAS is limited to supplying 50% of the electric energy market.
egfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("gas-n",pp,rg,sw) + PE("gas-ncs",pp,rg,sw) =l=
.5 * E(rg,pp,sw);
* New COAL is limited to supplying 50% of the electric energy market.
ecfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("coal-n",pp,rg,sw) + PE("coal-ncs",pp,rg,sw) =l=
.5 * E(rg,pp,sw);
* coal-n and coal-ncs cannot exceed the total cap on coal-n. This keeps coal-ncs from appearing in
* places like Western Europe that have a cap on total coal-n.
ecfrac2(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("coal-n",pp,rg,sw) + PE("coal-ncs",pp,rg,sw) =L=
ECAP("coal-n",pp,rg);
* wind-lc is limited to supplying 20% of the electric energy market.
coalafrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("wind-lc",pp,rg,sw) =l=
.2 * E(rg,pp,sw);
* Nuclear, including both existing and new, is limited to supplying 33% of the electric energy market.
*.advfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
*. PE("nuc-n",pp,rg,sw) + PE("nuc-r",pp,rg,sw) =l=
*. .33 * E(rg,pp,sw);
* New nuclear can either stay constant or increase, but it cannot decline.
nucdec(rg,tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PE("nuc-n",tp+1,rg,sw) =g= PE("nuc-n",tp,rg,sw);
* CCS is limited to supplying 100% of the electric energy market.
ccsfrac(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PE("coal-ncs",pp,rg,sw) + PE("gas-ncs",pp,rg,sw) + PE("coal-rcs",pp,rg,sw) =l=
1 * E(rg,pp,sw);
* The final equation in the ETA submodel defines EC, the aggregate costs
* incurred within the energy sector. This is one of the competing claims on
* aggregate output.
costnrg(rg,tp,sw)$(pp(tp) and st(tp,sw)).. EC(rg,tp,sw) =g= .001 * (
* Costs for electric and nonelectric energy supplies.
sum(et, PE(et,tp,rg,sw)*ecst(et,rg)* cstred(tp))
+ sum(nt, PN(nt,tp,rg,sw)*ncst(nt,rg)* cstred(tp)* frncst(nt , "frnpn"))
+ sum(x, RA(rg,x,tp,sw) *ncst(x ,rg)* cstred(tp)* frncst(x , "frnra"))
* Cost of high reliance on specific electricity technologies.
+ .5 * sum (et, (qecst(et,rg) *
PE(et,tp,rg,sw) * PE(et,tp,rg,sw) / ecap(et,tp,rg)) $
( ecap(et,tp,rg) gt 0 and ecap(et,tp,rg) lt Inf ) )
* Electric lbde learning costs.
+ inlce * PE("lbde",tp,rg,sw) * (CPE(tp,sw) /cpe0 )**lrne
* Nonelectric lbdn learning costs.
+ inlcn * PN("lbdn",tp,rg,sw) * (CPN(tp,sw) /cpn0 )**lrnn
* Allowance for oil-gas price differential
+ ogpd(rg)*GASNON(tp,rg,sw)
* Taxes on electricity, nonelectric energy and carbon.
+ xntax(rg)*N(rg,tp,sw)
+ xetax(rg)*E(rg,tp,sw)
+ ctax(tp,rg)*CLEV(tp,rg,sw)
* Credit for lump-sum rebate of tax revenues.
- taxrev(rg,tp,sw)
* Cost of relaxing carbon limit.
+ rcl(tp)*CRLX(tp,rg,sw)
* Cost of relaxing ogglim.
+ rcl(tp)*sum(ogg, ORLX(ogg,tp,rg,sw))
* Regional cost of global afforestation - based on SHARES.TAB
+ sh(tp,rg) * acf *
SUM((sy,ps), price(sy,tp,ps)*cab(sy,tp,ps)*AFF(sy,ps,sw))
* Cost of providing abatement of GHG.
+ sum ((ghg,abx), abcst(abx,ghg)*ABATE(ghg,abx,tp,rg,sw))
* Transportation costs for interregional trade.
+ sum(trd, cstexp(trd)*EXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw))
);
* Competing claims on resources include consumption, investment, energy
* costs, market damages and net exports of the composite numeraire good.
cc(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw).. Y(rg,pp,sw) =e=
C(rg,pp,sw) + I(rg,pp,sw) + EC(rg,pp,sw) + MD(rg,pp,sw)
+ NTX("nmr",pp,rg,sw);
* Net exports of interregionally tradeable goods must be balanced with net
* imports.
trdbal(pp,trd,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
sum(rg, NTX(trd, pp, rg,sw)) =e= 0;
* In accounting for total energy costs, interregional transport costs are
* proportional to net exports. It will be optimal for EXPRT variables to be
* zero when NTX < 0.
ntdef(trd,tp,rg,sw) $ (cstexp(trd) and st(tp,sw))..
NTX(trd,tp,rg,sw) =l= EXPRT(trd,tp,rg,sw);
* There are limits on the decline rates of specific technologies.
dece(rg,tp+1,dle,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PE(dle,tp+1,rg,sw) =g=
PE(dle,tp,rg,sw)*(decf(rg)**nyper(tp));
decn(rg,tp+1,dln,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PN(dln,tp+1,rg,sw) =g=
PN(dln,tp,rg,sw)*(decf(rg)**nyper(tp));
deco(rg,tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
OILNON(tp+1,rg,sw) =g=
OILNON(tp,rg,sw)*(decf(rg)**nyper(tp));
decg(rg,tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
GASNON(tp+1,rg,sw) =g=
GASNON(tp,rg,sw)*(decf(rg)**nyper(tp));
* There are limits on the expansion rates of specific technologies.
expe(rg,tp+1,xle,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PE(xle,tp+1,rg,sw) - nshf(rg) * E(rg,tp+1,sw)
=l= (expf(rg)**nyper(tp)) * PE(xle,tp,rg,sw);
expg(rg,tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
sum(xlg, PE(xlg,tp+1,rg,sw)) - nshf(rg) * E(rg,tp+1,sw)
=l= (expf(rg)**nyper(tp)) * sum(xlg, PE(xlg,tp,rg,sw));
expn(rg,tp+1,xln,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PN(xln,tp+1,rg,sw) - nshf(rg) * N(rg,tp+1,sw)
=l= (nxpf(rg)**nyper(tp)) * PN(xln,tp,rg,sw);
cpedf(tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
CPE(tp+1,sw) =e=
.5*nyper(tp) * sum(rg, PE("lbde",tp+1,rg,sw) + PE("lbde",tp,rg,sw))
+ CPE(tp,sw);
cpndf(tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
CPN(tp+1,sw) =e=
.5*nyper(tp) * sum(rg, PN("lbdn",tp+1,rg,sw) + PN("lbdn",tp,rg,sw))
+ CPN(tp,sw);
* Changes in remaining undiscovered exhaustible resources are determined by a
* distributed lag function of reserve additions.
rscav(rg,tp+1,x,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
URSC(rg,x,tp+1,sw) + .5*nyper(tp) * RA(rg,x,tp+1,sw) =e=
URSC(rg,x,tp,sw) -.5*nyper(tp) * RA(rg,x,tp, sw);
* Changes in remaining proven reserves are determined by a distributed lag
* function of reserve additions less production of exhaustible resources.
rsvav(rg,tp+1,x,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
PRSV(rg,x,tp+1,sw) - .5*nyper(tp) * (RA(rg,x,tp+1,sw) - PN(x,tp+1,rg,sw)) =e=
PRSV(rg,x,tp,sw) + .5*nyper(tp) * (RA(rg,x,tp,sw) - PN(x,tp,rg,sw));
* Reserve additions cannot exceed a fixed fraction of remaining resources.
rdflim(rg,pp,x,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
RA(rg,x,pp,sw) =l=
rdf(x,rg) * URSC(rg,x,pp,sw);
* Production cannot exceed a fixed fraction of proven reserves.
prvlim(rg,pp,x,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PN(x,pp,rg,sw) =l=
prv(x,rg) * PRSV(rg,x,pp,sw);
$ontext
Carbon emissions are determined by the carbon coefficients and the production
levels for each electric and nonelectric technology. Emissions may
be reduced by high-cost carbon limit relaxation activities.
$offtext
carlev(rg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
sum(et, cece(et,rg)*PE(et,pp,rg,sw))
+ cecn("oil",rg) * OILNON(pp,rg,sw)
+ cecn("gas",rg) * GASNON(pp,rg,sw)
+ cecn("cldu",rg) * PN("cldu",pp,rg,sw)
+ cecn("synf",rg) * PN("synf",pp,rg,sw)
* Adjustment for base year inconsistency of IEO.
+ fos("carbdif",rg)
=e= CLEV(pp,rg,sw) + CRLX(pp,rg,sw);
* Fractions of alternative aforestation scenarios.
fracsum(sw).. SUM((sy,ps) , AFF(sy,ps,sw)) =l= 1;
* GLOBAL carbon emissions are a jointly determined decision variable. Each
* region's shares in this public "good" are determined exogenously.
$include "tables\CSE.%cse%"
* Global totals for energy-related ch4 emissions.
wch4df(pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
1000 * EM("ch4",pp,sw) =e=
sum(rg,
bch4gas(pp,rg) * sum(gasc, PN(gasc, pp,rg,sw)));
$ontext
The global total of each greenhouse gas is given by the energy-related
emissions (endogenous) and non-energy emissions (exogenous) less abatement.
This provides the link between regional emissions and global concentrations.
$offtext
totemit(ghg,pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
TOTEM(ghg,pp,sw) =e=
EM(ghg,pp,sw) + nonem(ghg,pp)
+ sum(rg, bline(ghg,pp,rg))/gwp(ghg)
- SUM((sy,ps) , cab(sy,pp,ps) * AFF(sy,ps,sw)) * co2fac(ghg)
- sum((abx,rg), ABATE(ghg,abx,pp,rg,sw))/gwp(ghg);
* The carbon stock in each "box" is determined by a distributed lag process.
co2box(box,tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
CO2(box,tp+1,sw) - decay2(tp,box)*frac(box)*.5*TOTEM("co2",tp+1,sw) =e=
CO2(box,tp,sw) * decay1(box)**nyper(tp) +
decay2(tp,box)*frac(box)*.5*TOTEM("co2",tp,sw);
* The total stock of CO2 is determined by summing over all boxes.
co2stock(tp,sw)$st(tp,sw)..
S("co2",tp,sw) =e=
sum(box, CO2(box,tp,sw)) + nco2;
* The total stock of other greenhouse gases is determined by a distributed
* lag process.
ostockm(ghg,tp,sw)$((ord(ghg) ne 1) and st(tp,sw))..
SMINUS(ghg,tp,sw) =e= S(ghg,tp,sw) - eqstock(ghg);
ostock(ghg,tp+1,sw)$((ord(ghg) ne 1) and st(tp+1,sw))..
SMINUS(ghg,tp+1,sw) - odecay2(tp,ghg) * .5 * TOTEM(ghg,tp+1,sw) =e=
SMINUS(ghg,tp,sw) * odecay1(ghg)**nyper(tp)
+ odecay2(tp,ghg) * .5 * TOTEM(ghg,tp,sw);
$ontext
Potential temperature increase (from the base year) is determined by the
accumulation of greenhouse gases. It is proportional to the aggregate
radiative forcing induced by each of these gases. For CO2, the radiative
forcing is proportional to the logarithm of the ratio of the current to the
initial level. There are similar but more complex forcing terms for N2O and
CH4. The inter(ghg) term approximates interaction effects between these two
gases.
$offtext
ptdf(pp,sw)$st(pp,sw)..
PT(pp,sw) =e=
rfconv(sw) * ( rfbase
+ (rffac("co2") * log(S("co2",pp,sw)/basestock("co2")))
+ sum(ghg$(ord(ghg) ge 2),
inter(ghg) * rffac(ghg)* (
(sm(ghg)*S(ghg,pp,sw))**rfex
- (sm(ghg)*basestock(ghg))**rfex))
+ sum(ghg$(ord(ghg) ge 4),
rffac(ghg) * (S(ghg,pp,sw) - basestock(ghg)))
)
;
* Temperature is measured so that ATP = 0 in 2000.
* Actual temperature increase (from the base year) is determined by a
* distributed lag process. Two lag constants are used in order to perform
* calculations for multi-year time periods.
atdf(tp+1,sw)$st(tp+1,sw)..
ATP(tp+1,sw) - lag2(tp) * .5 * PT(tp+1,sw) =e=
ATP(tp,sw) * (1-lag1)**nyper(tp)
+ lag2(tp) * .5 * PT(tp,sw)
- rfconv(sw) * cool(tp+1,sw) + rfconv(sw) * cool("2000",sw) ;
* Constraint on decadal increment in actual temperature after 2020.
atin(tp20+1,sw) $ st(tp20+1,sw) ..
ATP(tp20+1,sw) =l= ATP(tp20,sw) + atdinc(tp20,sw);
$include "tables\DAMAGES.%damages%"
nweldf.. NWEL =E=
100 * 1000 * sum(rg, nwt(rg) *
sum((sw,pp),
prob(sw)*udf(pp,rg)
*log( ELF(rg,pp,sw)*C(rg,pp,sw)
* Calibrate a disutility of nuclear power such that when
* nuclear output represents benchmark share of electric supply, the
* marginal risk premium is wtp0 (20 mills per kwh):
- ( 0.001 * wtp0/(1+sigma_wtp) *
(PE("nuc-n",pp,rg,sw)+PE("nuc-r",pp,rg,sw)) *
((PE("nuc-n",pp,rg,sw) + PE("nuc-r",pp,rg,sw)) /
(refshr(rg)*E(rg,pp,sw)))**sigma_wtp))));
*==>$include "M5.BND"
*------------------------------- M5.BND ------------------------------*
* This section of the code contains the base year benchmarks of
* variables and other variable bounds.
* These data are computed in M5.PAR with data from MACRO.TAB.
E.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = E0(RG);
N.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = N0(RG);
Y.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = Y0(RG);
K.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = K0(RG);
C.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = C0(RG);
I.FX(RG,TBASE,SW) = I0(RG);
* The following bounds help to avoid nasty program calls.
K.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*K0(RG);
KN.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*I0(RG)*10;
Y.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*Y0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
YN.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*Y0(RG)*LN(PP,RG);
C.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*C0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
C.LO(RG,PP,SW) = MAX(.1, C.LO(RG,PP,SW));
C.UP(RG,PP,SW) = C0(RG)*L(PP,RG)/LOTOL;
ELF.LO(RG,TP,SW) = .90;
ELF.UP(RG,TP,SW) = 1.0;
I.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*I0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
E.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*E0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
EN.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*E0(RG);
N.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*N0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
NN.LO(RG,PP,SW) = LOTOL*N0(RG);
* The following initial levels accelerate convergence.
K.L(RG,PP,SW) = K0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
Y.L(RG,PP,SW) = Y0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
C.L(RG,PP,SW) = C0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
I.L(RG,PP,SW) = I0(RG)*L(PP,RG);
* The base year levels and future capacities of electric and
* nonelectric energy technologies are found in ELEC.TAB and
* NELE.TAB, respectively.
PE.UP(ET,PP,RG,SW) = ECAP(ET,PP,RG);
PE.FX(ET,TBASE,RG,SW) = ECAP(ET,TBASE,RG);
PE.FX("hydro",TP,RG,SW) = ECAP("hydro",TP,RG);
PE.FX("nuc-r",TP,RG,SW) = ECAP("nuc-r" ,TP,RG);
* To avoid unrealistic heat rate improvements, we fix coal-r, oil-r and gas-r
* in EEFSU and Non-Annex B. See TABLE HTRT.
PE.FX("COAL-R",TP,"EEFSU",SW) = ECAP("COAL-R",TP,"EEFSU");
PE.FX("OIL-R ",TP,"EEFSU",SW) = ECAP("OIL-R ",TP,"EEFSU");
PE.FX("GAS-R ",TP,"EEFSU",SW) = ECAP("GAS-R ",TP,"EEFSU");
PE.FX("COAL-R",TP,NANB,SW) = ECAP("COAL-R",TP,NANB);
PE.FX("OIL-R ",TP,NANB,SW) = ECAP("OIL-R ",TP,NANB);
PE.FX("GAS-R ",TP,NANB,SW) = ECAP("GAS-R ",TP,NANB);
PN.UP(NT,PP,RG,SW) = NCAP(NT,PP,RG);
PN.FX(NT,TBASE,RG,SW) = NCAP(NT,TBASE,RG);
$include tables\LBD.%lbd%
GASNON.FX(TBASE,RG,SW) = NCAP("GAS-1",TBASE,RG)
- HTRT("GAS-R",RG) * ECAP("GAS-R",TBASE,RG)
- HTRT("GAS-N",RG) * ECAP("GAS-N",TBASE,RG)
- GASX(TBASE,RG);
OILNON.FX(TBASE,RG,SW) = NCAP("OIL-1",TBASE,RG)
- HTRT("OIL-R",RG) * ECAP("OIL-R",TBASE,RG)
- OILX(TBASE,RG);
* The following data are found in GHGLIM.TAB and CASELIM.TAB.
EM.FX("co2","2000",sw) = CARLIM("sw1","2000","world");
CLEV.FX("2000",rg,sw) = CARLIM("sw1","2000",rg);
CLEV.UP("2010",rg,sw) = CARLIM("sw1","2010",rg);
DISPLAY CLEV.UP;
EM.UP("co2", tlast,sw) = TYGCL(SW);
DC.UP(rg,tp,sw) = DCLIM(tp,rg);
* The following are special limits on CRLX and ABATE activities.
CRLX.FX("2000",RG,SW) = 0;
$include tables\ABATE.%abate%
$include tables\SINKS.%sinks%
* The bounds on net exports are found in TRADE.TAB
NTX.FX("OIL",TBASE,RG,SW) = OILX(TBASE,RG);
NTX.UP("OIL",PP,RG,SW) = OILX(PP,RG);
NTX.LO("OIL",PP,RG,SW) = - OILM(PP,RG);
NTX.FX("GAS",TBASE,RG,SW) = GASX(TBASE,RG);
NTX.UP("GAS",PP,RG,SW) = GASX(PP,RG);
NTX.LO("GAS",PP,RG,SW) = - GASM(PP,RG);
*NTX.FX("SYN",TBASE,RG,SW) = SYNX(TBASE,RG);
*NTX.UP("SYN",PP,RG,SW) = SYNX(PP,RG);
*NTX.LO("SYN",PP,RG,SW) = - SYNM(PP,RG);
NTX.FX("CRT",TBASE,RG,SW) = 0;
NTX.UP("CRT",PP,RG,SW) = CARXL(PP,RG);
NTX.LO("CRT",PP,RG,SW) = - CARML(PP,RG);
* The data for exhaustible resources are found in NELE.TAB.
PRSV.FX(RG,X,TBASE,SW) = RSV(X,RG);
URSC.UP(RG,X,TBASE,SW) = RSC(X,RG);
RA.UP(RG,X, TBASE,SW) = RSC(X,RG)*RDF(X,RG);
* Except for NCAP, the following initial conditions are defined in CLIMATE.TAB
* and in GHGLIM.TAB.
EM.FX("co2","2000",sw) = CARLIM("sw1","2000","world");
EM.FX("ch4","2000",sw) = SUM(rg, NCAP("gas-1","2000",rg)*BCH4GAS("2000",rg))/1000;
EM.FX("n2o",tp,sw) = 0;
EM.FX("slf",tp,sw) = 0;
EM.FX("llf",tp,sw) = 0;
TOTEM.FX("co2","2000",sw) = CARLIM("sw1","2000","world")
+ NONEM("co2","2000");
TOTEM.FX("ch4","2000",sw)
= SUM(rg, NCAP("gas-1","2000",rg)*BCH4GAS("2000",rg))/1000
+ sum(rg, bline("ch4","2000",rg))/gwp("ch4");
TOTEM.FX(ghg,"2000",sw) $ (ord(ghg) ge 3) =
sum(rg, bline(ghg,"2000",rg))/gwp(ghg);
CO2.FX(BOX,TBASE,SW) = CO2BASE(BOX);
S.FX(ghg,"2000",sw) = basestock(ghg);
SMINUS.FX(ghg,"2000",sw)
= basestock(ghg) - eqstock(ghg);
S.UP("co2",pp,sw) = basestock("co2") * conlim(pp,sw)/conlim("2000",sw);
S.LO(ghg,pp,sw) = .5 * basestock(ghg);
SMINUS.LO(ghg,pp,sw) = .1 * (basestock(ghg) - eqstock(ghg));
PT.FX(tbase,sw) = rfconv("sw1")*rfbase;
PT.UP(pp,sw) = PTDLIM(pp,sw);
ATP.FX(tbase,sw) = 0;
ATP.LO(pp,sw) = .01;
ATP.UP(tp20,sw) = MIN (ATDLIM(tp20,sw) , .95*SMIN(rg, CATT(rg,sw)));
MODEL M5 /ALL/;