Global Landuse Activity and Emissions (Terrestrial Sequestration)
Report to EMF on landuse activity and emissions in stabilization modeling.
This report presents and evaluates the role of land in climate stabilization scenarios. Specifically, we consider
stabilization results from four of the EMF-21 study models, as well as some more recent stabilization results from
two of the EMF-21 modeling teams. This report was designed, in large part, to simply provide data to inform a
growing interest in understanding land’s role in climate change mitigation—by the Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change, the land subgroup of the EMF-22 climate stabilization study, and a burgeoning global discussion
on long-term mitigation potential of biofuels.
Report to EMF on landuse activity and emissions in stabilization modeling. Land in Stabilization - January 2007
Below are results from the participating modeling teams in the sinks subgroup. Three modeling teams were able to produce results for the mitigation scenarios (see description below). There also are baseline sinks estimates from two other modeling teams.
There are
two objectives for this sinks modeling exercise:
(1) Compare baseline and mitigation scenario estimates
from among the participating models. The sinks modelers will present their
results, including model comparisons, at the December 8-10 meeting.
(2) Incorporate the sequestration supply curves into the economy, technology, or integrated assessment models for the study's priority scenarios. We hope that many of the other modelers use this new data to evaluate the potential contribution from sinks.
Important: Unlike the non-CO2 data
where there is one, common data set to use, there are three sinks mitigation
results to select from different models.
We encourage modelers to review all three model results and select at
least one that is most closely consistent with their own model parameters and
assumptions.
Scenarios
The scenarios were developed and run in order to develop sequestration supply curves based on a set of carbon price scenarios that are derived from and attempt to stay close to the overall study's priority scenarios. There are seven scenarios: one reference, baseline case (modeler's choice) and six mitigation cases as described below.
To be consistent with the Long-term
modeling, a set of globally
uniform carbon prices that start in 2010 and rise at
specified discount rates through 2100.
The specified discount rates and starting prices are the following:
-
5%
starting at $5/TCE and $10/TCE. These
resulting 2100 prices are $403 and $807, respectively.
-
3%
starting at $10/TCE and $20/TCE. These resulting 2100 prices are $143 and $286,
respectively.
That's four
scenario runs.
A fifth
scenario is a constant carbon price of $100/TCE through 2100.
And lastly, to be consistent with the short-term, Rate of temperature
change target, one price scenario that starts at $75 in 2010, raises by $5 per
year until 2050 when the price will be $275.
That's the sixth scenario.
The following Excel file illustrates the carbon prices for each of the scenarios.
Sinks Prices
Baseline and Mitigation Results
Ohio State Univ (Brent Sohngen) & RFF (Roger Sedjo) with GTM Sohngen Data
For background material on the model, see
Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other Land Uses
Roger Sedjo, Brent Sohngen, and Robert Mendelsohn | April 2001
http://www.rff.org/disc_papers/PDF_files/0119.pdf
From RIVM (Bas
Eickhout, Detlef van Vuuren) with IMAGE Eickhout Data
This
also includes a background paper.
LBNL (Jayant
Sathaye & Willy
Makundi) and EPA (Ken Andrasko) with GCOMAP
Makundi Data
This
also includes background paper.
Baseline Results
CIRAD (Daniel Deybe) with POLES/AGRIPOL AIM & AGRIPOL
NIES (Junichi Fujino) with AIM
[These
two files are zipped together]
In each of the spreadsheets, the principal modeler is
identified and their email is provided in case anyone has questions about the
models and data. Questions on the
overall sinks subgroup should be directed to Francisco de la Chesnaye;
email: delachesnaye.francisco@epa.gov