The Psychology of Social Decisions: Influence (4/17-24/02)

Principles of Influence (see Cialdini, Influence: Science and Practice)

• channel factors - ease as a key determinant in influencing behavior (e.g. elections in the U.S., low turnout)
• automatic versus controlled processing (a.k.a. peripheral versus central routes to persuasion) - dual process models (cf Selten's triple process model)
• norms influencing behavior:
• commitment/consistency (foot in the door technique)
• reciprocity (e.g. free mailing labels, fairness, door-in-the-face technique, perceptual contrast - good cop/bad cop and sales)
• authority (fame/celebrity effects, Milgram's obediance study)
• scarcity (fear of lost opportunity)
• social proof (polling, spin, Reagan-Mondale debate in 1984)
• liking (positive associations, mere exposure phenomenon, physical appearance)
• public relations - Stauber and Rampton, Toxic Sludge is Good for You and Trust Us, We're Experts - third party phenomenon

• conformity to a group (Bennington study, Sherif's autokinetic effect study, Asch conformity)
• personal relationships -- influence on political views and behavior, political socialization in marriage
• choice shift -- groups accentuate members' tendencies toward riskiness or caution in decisions
• group think - antecedent conditions
• high cohesiveness
• insulation of the group
• lack of methodical search and appraisal
• directive leadership
• high stress, low hope for a better solution than the one offered by group leaders
• group think - psychology
• illusion of invulnerability
• rationalization of past decisions
• unquestioned belief in the group's morality
• stereotyped view of opponent
• conformity pressure
• self-censorship
• illusion of unanimity
• mindguards
• group think - behavioral consequences
• incomplete survey of alternatives
• incomplete suvey of objectives
• failure to examine risks of preferred choice
• poor information search
• selective bias in processing information at hand
• failure to reappraise alternatives
• failure to work out contingency plans
• group think - prevention
• Educate members about group think causes and consequences
• Leader/facilitator should not endorse a position
• Leader/facilitator should instruct everyone to critically evaluate, encourage objections and doubts
• Assign "devil's advocate/s"
• Subdivide the group periodically, then reconvene
• Identify possible actions of opponent/rival
• Schedule a "second chance" meeting to express remaining doubts
• Bring in staggered outsiders to challenge group's views
• Get feedback from those outside the group, report back
• Set up groups working independently on the same problem

• Quattrone and Tversky (1988)
• reflection effect - higher expectations, reference points make people more risk seeking if projected outcomes are lower than expectations; thus, people in countries that are falling behind their neighbors or who are peering into bad times may be more risk seeking
• loss aversion - effects on formulation - status quo bias ("no" bias), policies favored more if framed as avoiding losses rather than leading to gains
• framing and ratio/difference principle - invariance; ratio-difference principle (e.g. employment versus unemployment rates)
• certainty effect - nonlinear probabilities; pseudocertainy (segmenting a decision)
• voter's illusion - mistake diagnostic for causal acts; mechanism to counteract free-riding

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