Stanford University
POLISCI 353: Workshop in Statistical Modeling
Jonathan Wand, Simon Jackman, and Doug Rivers

Winter 2005 Calendar

Meeting times and location

The workshop will meet weekly each Thursday 4-6pm, except where noted for occassional AES seminars. Workshops take place in Room 400 (the Graham Stuart Lounge) on the 4th floor of Encina Hall West, except where noted in the schedule.

Description of weeks

Speaker: Simon Jackman

Speaker: Andrew Gelman, Columbia University

Title: Ubiquity of multilevel models and how to understand them better

Main papers related to talk:

• Multilevel (hierarchical) modeling: what it can and can't do
• Analysis of variance: why it is more important than ever
• Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before-after study

Jan 20: NO WORKSHOP -- instead: American Empirical Seminar meeting 5:15-6:30pm

AES Speaker: Andrea Campbell, Harvard University

Jan 27: Paper Presentation

Speaker: Marc Meredith, Stanford University GSB

Paper: Strategic Timing of Ballot Initiatives: Evidence from Wisconsin School Referenda

Feb 3: Paper Presentation

Speaker: Jon Krosnick, Stanford University

Presentation: The Importance of Testing Mediation and Moderation Properly in Political Science: Examples from Work on News Media Priming

Main papers related to talk:

• Mediation in Experimental and Nonexperimental Studies: New Procedures and Recommendations, Patrick E. Shrout and Niall Bolger
• News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: Politically Knowledgeable Citizens Are Guided by a Trusted Source, Joanne M. Miller and Jon A. Krosnick
• The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations, Reuben M. Baron and David A. Kenny
• Attitude Importance and the Accumulation of Attitude-Relevant Knowledge in Memory, Allyson L. Holbrook, Matthew K. Berent and Jon A. Krosnick

Feb 10: NO WORKSHOP -- instead: American Empirical Seminar meeting 5:15-6:30pm

AES Speaker: James Kuklinski, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Feb 17: Paper Presentation

Speaker: Kenneth Schultz, Stanford University

Paper: Estimating State Preferences in International Crises: Promise and Limitations in Fully Structural Estimation

Feb 24: Presentation

Speaker: Simon Jackman, Stanford University

Topic: Extreme Ideal Point Estimation

Mar 3: NO WORKSHOP -- instead: American Empirical Seminar meeting 5:15-6:30pm

AES Speaker: Nolan McCarty, Princeton University

Mar 10: Student Presentations

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Revised February 12, 2005