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Bush Wins
Snap Poll: Republican Takes Second Debate

Analysis
By Gary Langer

ABCNEWS.com
Oct. 12 — Viewers of the second presidential debate picked George W. Bush as the winner by a 16-point margin, partly because a disproportionately Republican audience tuned in, but also because they were more pleased with their candidate’s performance.
    
Among registered voters who watched the debate, 46 percent picked Bush as the winner, while 30 percent thought Al Gore won. Eighteen percent called it a tie. In the first debate, by contrast, viewers were divided about evenly between Bush and Gore as the winner.


Who Won?
  Gore Bush Tie
10/11/00 30% 46 18
10/3/00 42% 39 13

As noted, a more pro-Bush audience chose to watch. Viewers favored Bush by 52-42 percent before the debate; that compares to a closer 48-45 percent race among likely voters nationally in an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll completed Monday.
     But Bush also did a better job pleasing his supporters. Among those who supported Bush going into the debate, 76 percent said he won it. Among those who supported Gore going in, fewer — 63 percent — picked him as the winner. Indeed Gore’s supporters were almost twice as likely as Bush’s either to call it a tie, or to say the other guy won.


Who Won?
  Among: Gore supporters Bush supporters
Gore   63% 4
Bush   11% 76
Tie   20% 13

These assessments are different from the first debate: Then Gore’s supporters were as likely as Bush’s — even slightly more likely — to say their candidate won.
     Political party preferences show a similar result. After the first debate, 75 percent of Democrats said Gore won; this time that was down to 61 percent. And after the first debate 68 percent of Republicans said Bush won; this time that was up to 76 percent.
     Regardless of the winner, again the debate had little direct effect on vote preferences among those who watched. Bush’s support among viewers was 52 percent before the debate and 54 percent after it; Gore’s, 42 percent before, 41 percent after.


Vote Preference
Registered Voters Who Watched
  Gore Bush Nader Buchanan
Before Debate 42% 52 2 1
After Debate 41% 54 2 1

Looking at the movement — or lack thereof — another way: Among people who supported Bush going into the debate, 96 percent still supported him after it. Among those who backed Gore going in, 91 percent stayed with him.
     These represent the undiluted opinions of viewers immediately after the debate ended. As noted, it’s not a sample of all Americans or all likely voters; instead it’s a random sample of registered voters who chose to watch the debate.
     There’s still a gender gap in views of the candidates, but this time with a twist: Men who watched picked Bush as the winner by a 26-point margin. But women who watched didn’t pick Gore as the winner; they were divided about evenly. That too is different from the first debate, when most women said Gore won.
    

Who Won?
    Gore Bush Tie
10/11 Debate Men 24% 50 19
  Women 37% 41 16
         
10/3 Debate Men 32% 45 18
  Women 52% 33 9

Methodology
This survey was conducted by telephone among a random-sample panel of 491 registered voters who watched Wednesday’s debate. Respondents were initially interviewed Oct. 6-9. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.


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Reference

Complete Coverage: Debates 2000





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