Announcements
The final examination has been graded.The exam had mean 65, standard deviation 19, and median 66. Scores ranged from 17 to 114 out of 120.
The graded exams will not be available until January, but final exam scores by SUID are available for viewing at the Final Examination Grades page.
Happy Holidays!
The final exam will be given on Thursday, December 13,
8:30-11:30am in Braun Auditorium, the larger classroom next to ours.
Student can request to take an alternate final examination on Friday, December 14, 8:30-11:30am.
If you need any special arrangements for the final exam or are unable to take the regular exam, by Saturday, December 1 please complete the web form.
The topics for the exam are listed in the Examination Study Guide posted on the Handouts page. A past final exam is also posted there, but solutions will not be provided.
The exam is open-book and open-notes with any materials from this quarter's class. No electronic devices are permitted so calculations will be kept as simple as possible, and you will receive complete credit for setting up the calculations clearly and correctly, even if you do not carry them out.
Note that he last two lectures, December 5 and 7, will be a course review,
and together we will solve the posted past final exam.
The last problem sessions will be on Friday, December 7.
There will be office hours during Finals Week:
Tuesday, December 11, 1030am-1230pm, Huang 203
Tuesday, December 11, 3-5pm, Huang B16
Wednesday, December 12, noon-2pm, Huang B19
Wednesday, December 12, 3-5pm, Nano/Spiker 143
Please pick up any of your graded papers that are still in the submission cabinet on the terrace (basement) level of Huang. Any papers still in the cabinet will be discarded early in January.
The second midterm examination will be given on Monday, November 26, from 7-9pm in NVIDIA Auditorium on the terrace level of Huang Engineering Center. The exam is primarily on material through the fourth homework but, by the nature of the course, subsequent material could provide insights. The topics for the exam are listed in the Examination Study Guide posted on the Handouts page. A past midterm exam is also posted there, but solutions will not be provided.
The exam is open-book and open-notes with any materials from this quarter's class. No electronic devices are permitted so calculations will be kept as simple as possible, and you will receive complete credit for setting up the calculations clearly and correctly, even if you do not carry them out.
The first midterm examination will be given on Monday, October 22, from 7-9pm in NVIDIA Auditorium on the terrace level of Huang Engineering Center. The exam is primarily on material through the second homework but, by the nature of the course, subsequent material could provide insights. The topics for the exam are listed in the Examination Study Guide posted on the Handouts page.
The exam is open-book and open-notes with any materials from this quarter's class. No electronic devices are permitted so calculations will be kept as simple as possible, and you will receive complete credit for setting up the calculations clearly and correctly, even if you do not carry them out.
Class meets in Braun Lecture Hall at 9:30 on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.
The syllabus and lecture notes are posted on the Handouts page,
as well as on syllabus.stanford.edu.
There will be problem sessions starting Friday, September 28 at 1:15 and 2:15 in McCullough 122.
Students can register for the class on Axess but not for sections. Do not be alarmed by the warning that there is no capacity in the sections.
Office Hours are:
Sundays, 7-9pm, Thornton 110 (on nights before midterms or when homework is due)
Mondays, 8:45-9:30am (in the classroom)
Tuesdays, 3-5pm, Huang B16
Wednesdays, 8:45-9:30am (in the classroom)
Wednesdays, noon-2pm, Huang B19
Thursdays, 2-4pm, Huang B7
Fridays, 8:45-9:30am (in the classroom)
Course Objective
This is a fast-paced, fundamental course designed to develop an understanding of uncertain phenomena using the theory of probability. The course objective is to provide students with conceptual and intuitive insights into probabilistic reasoning and the ability to understand and solve real world problems.Intended Audience
For students seeking an introduction to probability theory and applications, this course is designed to develop their intuition and model building skills. This course satisfies the Distributional Breadth GER in Engineering and Applied Science. It is intended for undergraduate students and should be taken for five units.Graduate students in MS&E should enroll in a similar but separate course, MS&E 220.
Course Summary
Concepts and tools for the analysis of problems under uncertainty, focusing on model building and communication: the structuring, processing, and presentation of probabilistic information. Examples from legal, social, medical, engineering, and physical problems provide motivation and illustrations of modeling techniques. Spreadsheets will be used to illustrate and solve problems as a complement to analytical closed-form solutions. Topics include: axioms of probability, conditioning and probability trees, random variables and distributions, expectation, and limit theorems. Prerequisite: Mathematics 51. Recommended: some knowledge of spreadsheets.Required Textbook
The required textbook for the course is Sheldon Ross, A First Course in Probability, Prentice Hall, 2010 (Eighth Edition). It is on reserve in the Engineering Library.Prerequisites
Students should have a working knowledge of calculus at the level of Math 51, including some multivariate integration.Every student is expected to have access to a spreadsheet program, such as Microsoft Excel. (This access can be through clusters on campus and will come in handy for other courses in the MS&&E program.) Because we will use spreadsheets to illustrate and solve some problems, it will help to understand some basic spreadsheet operations.
Accommodations
We will do our best to accommodate students who need special arrangements. We may ask you to work with appropriate University officials and to certify your requirements.Skills you should acquire or strengthen in this course
After taking this course, you should have- an intuitive understanding of a number of fundamental probabilistic reasoning concepts sufficient to apply them in practice, and
- the ability to understand and solve real world problems under uncertainty by
- structuring problems,
- building models,
- analyzing and processing those models, and
- communicating insights from that analysis.
Opening Your Eyes
Please sensitize yourself to newspaper or magazine articles or observations about uncertainty that you encounter. You won't get course credit for doing this, but it will help to awaken you to the uncertainties that challenge us and it will enhance your course experience.Honor Code
The Honor Code is taken seriously at Stanford University and we expect it to be respectfully observed by the course staff and students. Simply put, it places the responsibility for ensuring honest behavior on the students rather than the course staff, and violations should not be tolerated. The midterm and final examinations are strictly individual work and you are not permitted to consult on them with others. You can consult with others on the homework assignments but you must acknowledge their assistance.Please contact Prof. Shachter if you have any questions about the Honor Code or the requirements for any assignment.
Grades
The course grade will be based on five bi-weekly Homework assignments, two evening Midterm Examinations, and a Final Examination, with the following weights, and with borderline decisions affected by class participation:- 10% Homework (graded on effort only), worst one dropped
- 30% Final Examination
- 60% your best two of the Midterm and Final Examinations
Here is the distribution of grades from last year's class:
| Grade | Percentage |
|---|---|
| A+ | 4% |
| A | 31% |
| A- | 26% |
| B+ | 0% |
| B | 10% |
| B- | 9% |
| C+ | 6% |
| C | 6% |
Examinations
There will be two Midterm Examinations 7-9pm on Mondays, October 22 and November 26.There will be a Final Examination 8:30-11:30am on Thursday, December 13. Students can request to take an alternate final exam 8:30-11:30am on Friday, December 14.
The exams will all be open-book and open-notes, and in locations to be determined.
All students are responsible for ensuring that they can attend both evening midterm exams and either the regular or alternate final exam. If you need special arrangements, please let us know as soon as possible.
Homework
Solving the homework problems is the best way to learn the material and prepare for the examinations. You should submit your completed and partial solutions to the assigned problems but your grade will be based solely on your effort, and the worst homework grade will not count. Come see us, early and often, if you have questions. Homework is due at the start of class on alternate Mondays (or before class in the submission kiosk on the Terrace level of Huang). It is important to stay current with the course material and not fall behind. We cannot help you unless you help yourself first. Therefore, we will penalize late homework.You are welcome to work with others to master the principles and approaches used to solve homework problems, although the work you turn in should be your own. Copying the work of others would provide you no educational value and would violate the spirit of the Honor Code. In the spirit of academic integrity and the Honor Code, you must acknowledge all of the people and materials you have consulted, including course staff and handouts, in preparing your submissions.
| Assignment | Problems from the Text, Eight Edition [Seventh Edition Variation] |
|---|---|
| Homework 1 due Oct 1 | Chapter 1
Problems 3, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 19, 21, 22, 32, 33 Theoretical Exercises 2, 3 Chapter 2
|
| Homework 2 due Oct 15 | Chapter 2
Problems 12, 15, 21, 43, 44, 45, 52, 56 Theoretical Exercises 15 Chapter 3
Chapter 4
|
| Homework 3 due Oct 29 | Chapter 4
Problems 32, 38, 43, 48, 52, 58, 60 Theoretical Exercises 2[4], 7[9], 27 Chapter 5
|
| Homework 4 due Nov 12 |
Chapter 5
Problems 39, 40 Theoretical Exercises 17[16], 29[28], 31[30] Chapter 6
Chapter 7
|
| Homework 5 due Dec 3 | Chapter 7
Problems 30, 33, 34, 36, 41, 42, 45, 53, 56, 65, 75 Theoretical Exercises 10, 15, 19, 48, 52 Chapter 8
|