Math 151 - Introduction to Probability Theory

Winter 2003

Announcements:

3/16: This year I will try to have 20-30% of the final exam material be pre-midterm. Last year it was about 20%.

3/16: Office hours today 3:00-5:00.

3/12: Exam covers material from lectures and homeworks, with emphasis on post-midterm material.

This includes the following "Chapter Summary" material from Durrett:
Chapter 1 summary, everything except (6.5), and (6.6).
Chapter 2 summary, everything except (1.2).
Chapter 3 summary, everything through section 3.7, except (3.2), (3.3), (4.5), (4.4), (5.6), (6.1), line 7.5 in the p. 149 table.
Note that by repeated application (or by induction), the relationships in that table extend to sums of any finite number of independent random variables.
Chapter 4 summary, everything through (4.6), except moment generating functions [(2.3),(3.2),(3.9),(3.10)]
Chapter 5 summary, page 251 except (1.7). Note the typo (missing bar) in (1.6)

You should be familiar with the following distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Geometric, Poisson, Uniform, Exponential, Normal(mu,sigma^2).
This includes knowing (or being able to derive) its PMF or density; and knowing (or being able to compute) its expectation.
For the Bernoulli, Binomial, and Normal you should also know (or be able to compute) the variances.
Of course, given the PMF or density function of an _arbitrary_ distribution, you should know how to set up summations or integrals
to calculate its variance. I'm just saying you don't need to memorize the final answer for, say, the variance of a Geometric distribution.

You should know the statements of Markov's inequality (the version from class and Ross), Chebyshev's inequality, WLLN, and CLT.
You should know the proof of WLLN.

3/12: Extra office hours today 5:00 to 6:30.

2/18: No class today. I'm snowbound in New York.

2/10: No homework due the week of the midterm.

2/10: Exam covers material from lectures and homeworks.

This includes the following "Chapter Summary" material from Durrett:
Chapter 1 summary, everything except (6.5), and (6.6). In class we did do a (3.10) example (a club staffs an event ...), but didn't emphasize it.
Chapter 2 summary, everything except (1.2) and (1.3)
Chapter 3 summary: (1.2), (5.1), (5.3), (5.4), (5.7), (5.8), (7.1), and lines 1 and 3 in the p.149 table.

Older announcements

Homework

Homework 1, due Friday 1/17 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 2, due Friday 1/24 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 3, due Friday 1/31 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 4, due Friday 2/7 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf
Parts of Homework 4 depend on joint distributions, which we will cover on Tuesday 2/4.
In the meantime, see these notes.

Midterm rewrites due Friday 2/21 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 5, due Friday 2/21 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 6, due Monday 3/03 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 7, due Friday 3/07 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Before doing Problems 2 and 3, and the last part of 1(d),
please read my notes on some points to be covered in class 3/04 .
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Homework 8, due Friday 3/14 by 4:00 PM:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf
Some examples of using CLT:   .ps   .pdf

Last year's final exam:   .ps   .pdf
Solutions:   .ps   .pdf

Staff:

Instructor: Roger Lee
Email: rogerlee@math
Phone: 723-1917
Office: 382Q2
Office hours: Tue 2:40-4:10, Thu 2:40-4:10, or by appointment

Course Assistant: Mohsen Bayati
Email: bayati@stanford.edu
Office: 380S
Office hours: M 9-11am, W 9-11am, Th 7-9pm

Grader: Maciek Boni
Email: maciek@stanford.edu

Meetings:

TTh 1:15-2:30
Room: 380D

Prerequisite:

Math 52 or equivalent.

Texts

Recommended: The Essentials of Probability by Richard Durrett
Optional: A First Course in Probability, 6th ed, by Sheldon Ross

Grading

33.3% homework assignments (8)
22.2% midterm, in class Tuesday February 11
44.4% final, 3:30pm-6:30pm Monday March 17

Usually I will post homework to the web on either Thursday or Friday, and make it due on Friday of the following week. You can turn in homework in class or into my math dept mailbox.

Math 151 vs. Stat 116:

They are similar in content, but Math 151 gives somewhat more emphasis to mathematical foundations and analytical manipulations. This additional emphasis will appear mainly in the lectures, not so much in the homework and exams. Many of the examples and exercises will be application-oriented.

Approximate Schedule

Week of 1/7: Combinatorics. Axioms of probability.
Week of 1/14: Conditioning and independence.
Week of 1/21: Conditioning and independence.
Week of 1/28: Discrete random variables and distributions
Week of 2/4: Discrete random variables and distributions.
Week of 2/11: Midterm 2/11. Continuous random variables.
Week of 2/18: Continuous random variables and distributions.
Week of 2/25: Continuous random variables and distributions.
Week of 3/4: Expectation, variance
Week of 3/11: Central limit theorem, law of large numbers, review
Finals week: Final exam 3/17